Miami Massacre: The Novaknopoly of Tennis

Tennis is in for a whole world of hurt if the Big 4 are done. An unlikeable #1 who can’t draw crowds, a roboton non-personality like Raonic, an idiot like Kyrgios, a tantrum throwing brat like Zverev. Gonna make everyone pine desperately for the good old days. And the women’s game isn’t in any better shape. If tennis was a stock, it would be time to say “Sell”.

Sharoten, tell it to the USTA which is making a bold $600-650 million investment in the National Tennis Center/US Open and doing so with the prospect of its three biggest draws by a country mile — Fed, Rafa and Serena — way closer to retirement than not.

USTA apparently had no problem with their last private placemet of debt to help finance Phase 1 of the project.***

I’ve been hearing about the death of tennis for as long as I’ve been following tennis. I fear not, it will outlive us all.

***Phase 1 collect underpants
Phase 2 ?
Phase 3 profits

http://southpark.cc.com/clips/151040/the-underpants-business

Weak era? Don’t think so. The #7 player (Berdych) is as good as former #1 Safin. Nishikori at #6 is as good as some former #3 players, etc. Monfils in any other decade would be #7, #8.

Can’t really underestimate how strong the big four have been. They’ve won everything, everywhere for so long that no one remembers the years 2000,2001,2002 when Hewitt won his two slams. Hewitt, Safin were the last “big players” before the super big four came on the scene, won everything.

I don’t consider this a weak era whatsoever. In my opinion, the “chokehold” that the big four had on the game is weaker than ever, which (in theory) should mean a few last hurrahs for the lower triad of the big four and a lot more open road for (a) Djokovic and (b) competitors who had been shut out and want to either make their final mark or establish themselves for the first time in the top 10.

It’s a good time to be a player like Monfils, Isner, Goffin, Kyrgios, Raonic, even Simon whoever else etc; it’s a bad time to be Nadal, Federer, Murray because they are now facing players below them with more confidence than ever and a player above them who can’t be beat. Either they buckle down and play some of their best tennis for the rest of the year or they continue to lose ground – ranking points, tournaments, etc.

Not much of a choice but it’s what they face.

I could be wrong and the big four might reassert themselves. But it’s been weakening for some time ever since Wawrinka smashed their monopoly on slams (Del Potro had crashed the party but his injuries prevented him from consolidating it). Sure, Federer could come back because his training is superior and his groundstrokes are better than . Murray could build some momentum.

But in terms of all four guys just trading tournaments among themselves and leaving open just a few regional tournaments as scraps for other players, that era’s over. A few more heroic performances are likely, but overall it’s sputtering and ripe for the cartel to be broken for sure.

This is a fine time for U.S. tennis to rebound. A group of young exciting players, who for the most part have more stable games that can hold up against much more experienced and established players. I’d pay for them to train in France, Spain.

Raonic had a real shot at winning the SF against Murray at the AO if he had not been injured. That injury kept him away from tourneys for several weeks and impacted on his training — he said he was not playing points in practice until he got to IW. So to be No. 2 in the Race to London is a remarkable result.

I do agree, however, that Milos needs to win a big tourney, at least a Masters, to be taken more seriously as a contender.

I agree with Hartt and Scoop, basically, that Raonic would need to do the impossible and win a Masters to send a shock-wave through the ATP that he’s capable of the biggest results in tennis. To some extent this is the standard – no Master victory, no slam victory, nothing to talk about.

Raonic would have to be thought of by Djokovic as a real threat – he would have to actually go after the king of tennis every tournament, meet him final after final. Do what Nadal did when Nadal went after Federer’s tournaments. Or do what Djokovic did to Nadal.

It’s debatable whether Raonic’s up to this task. I think the consensus is “no”.

That said fortunes change quickly in this sport. No one saw Serena Williams’ backing off the big titles and making way for other players. Not that Serena Williams is playing that much worse – only that playing 5 to 10 percent worse than normal is creating the opportunity of a lifetime for Vika, Kerber, everyone who plays her.

Pulling a Dan here. Houston=joke.

Guys, maybe its me but this is one of the most fascinating threads you ve started. Start with the numbers – more money all round surely comes from greater exposure of the sport. This must mean then that the ATP game is in good shape, right? How can you argue that one?

However, Scoop et all – you have to admit that when you canvas the public both armchair and playing tennis fan Djok is not a well liked or respected number 1. I am not going to say if it is justified none of that is necessarily relevant. (By the way have you seen the ranking points? – its a slaughter). Guys, he isn’t liked. Why?

My guess is that Djokovic has already reached his level of excellence.

Wouldn’t put money on it but I think he’ll be beaten this year. By someone – probably male 🙂

If he wins Paris I’ll agree with you there – GS in sight.

“Can’t phone in a result” – Andre Agassi.

We actually don’t know because clay season just began. Federer lucked out in his 2009 title run at Roland Garros. I think there have only been a few “sure things” at Roland Garros in the last few decades.

Generally, the best clay player usually wins Roland Garros. There are exceptions, but the best clay player for each clay season usually wins.

For most of the past 10 years that’s been Nadal.

It’s not yet Novak Djokovic. It could be.

And other players will have something to say about this. On clay some players become different players. And conditions matter too.

If the court plays “hard” I’d think Djokovic will run away with the title.

If the court plays soft, I think it becomes a lot more open.

We’ll see…we are barely days into the clay season!!!

The adidas stripes could get to Djoker for sure.

I agree, Scoop – the best clay player on the season doesn’t always win.

We’ll still need to see who’s got the grasp of the dirt this year – usually it’s a few players who build some momentum and truly enjoy the season.

My bet would be on the French. I believe they’re due for an interesting result if they can both entertain the crowds as well as win points out there.

I think Goffin will also do pretty well. And I don’t think the top 10 is playing too badly either to turn in some interesting results.

I don’t like Nishikori’s odds on the dirt and I don’t think the clay favors Raonic either.

To me the U.S. isn’t going to have much fun at Roland Garros, but it will be interesting to see how the rapidly revamping U.S. squad deals with the clay. They’ve had better results over the past few years, maybe someone will step up and grab a title.

(I think the last U.S. player to win a clay title in Europe was Querrey?)

Sometimes the French Open junior champ does well. Clay favors some players, so a player with some good memories enjoys it there.

Lets recall that the up and coming squad of us players isn’t one style of player. The u.s. for first time in forever has a few legitimate party spoilers, or players who aren’t allergic to clay.

Raonic living in Monte Carlo is probably the best idea out there like Serena Williams living in Paris. If they are there the travel to Europe becomes a non starter of an issue, less home sickness etc. May be a while before we see a us player on the ATP side of the ledger who sets up shop in Europe.

In fact, it would be a gutsy move on the part of the usta to set up a Euro training base, or for Bolletieri to set up Bolletieri Europe. We’ve gotten to a point in tennis where if a player doesn’t have access to red clay they probably aren’t going to do well during the clay season.

Well, my son’s being coached now by Greg Anderson, Kevin’s younger brother, and although Anderson just had ankle and dental surgery and is out till Madrid Greg says, let’s not forget that Kevin was up two sets to love against Djoko at last year’s Wimby. Apparently, Kevin beat Djoko, but it was way back in 2009.

Djokovic partying before a major tournament, priceless Scoop!

Brilliant thread, So much great stuff here! Thanks everyone!

When Djok lost to Tommy Haas at Wimbly 2009 it was the same. He was out at the pubs.

“Also was recently told that Hewitt dropped Cahill just before he was about to reach no 1 in order to save having to pay a Million dollar bonus to Killer and then Agassi scooped up Cahill shortly after to be his new coach”

Doesn’t pass BS detector. It presumes Cahill is both a country bumpkin and/or isn’t represented himself by a competent agent.

Regardless of whatever his agreement provided for as far as termination by Hewitt you have to think he was protected in the event of a termination w/o cause in reasonably close proximity to a potential incentive bonus payment.