The Djokovic-Nadal showdown is as hot as any rivalry in the modern era. Federer vs. Nadal has been spectacular but, come on, we all pretty much knew Rafa has had the upper hand from the get-go.
With Djokovic and Nadal it’s different. It’s more evenly balanced. Djokovic won the last match, Rafa the previous three and Djokovic the previous seven in a row. But right now, it’s unknown who will win. Astute observers like Henk Abbink feel Rafa is at his 100% best now and when he’s at that level, he’s about unbeatable.
Then there are people like Dan and myself who feel Djokovic is the superior player than Rafa, no matter the surface, when Djokovic is playing his best brand of machine like tennis, he dominates Rafa. It’s just that sometimes Djokovic does not bring his A game, sometimes things like his grandfather passing or Fed fans supporting Fed disturbs his natural flow.
The prospects of a Nole-Rafa showdown are thrilling, for me it’s the best clash of tennis titans since Pete and Andre.
Then we have the outsiders like Dimitrov, Berdych, Paire, Tomic, Raonic, Haas, Isner, Tsonga, Simon, Monfils, Ferrer, Delpo, Janowicz, Gulbis, any of which is more than capable of causing a Lukas Rosol calibre upset.
On the women’s side, well, it’s the usual suspects, Serena, Vika and Maria, but you never know if a Schiavone will emerge.
I’m picking Djokovic to complete his career Grand Slam and also Serena to prevail. Is Maria going to be hoping like heck to see Serena get upset? You bet.
Let the discussions and debates begin.
By the way, one friend of mine is going to wager $25,000 on Nadal if he is to meet Djokovic in the final.
(Photo by Henk Abbink)
Can Djokovic complete the career slam?
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1 2 Next »Bryan · May 21, 2013 at 11:13 pm
FO isn’t here yet unfortunately unless you have a stream we can watch qualifiers on. As always I’m rooting on Isner, Tsonga and Tipsy. None seem to have their A game right now and I have no idea where Isner was during the Italian Open.
Outsiders with a chance to make waves are Gulbis and Janowicz. This Janowicz is a physical beast, I don’t think any of the top 20 guys want to draw him at the FO.
We all gotta presume it’s Nadal vs Djoker in the finals though. I’ll take Djoker.
Scoop Malinowski · May 21, 2013 at 11:20 pm
Why are you feeling a Djokovic win Bryan?
Mitch · May 22, 2013 at 12:10 am
Murray is out and Del Po also probably won’t play. If Nadal and Berdych are on the other side of the draw, you have to like Fed’s odds of making the final.
Henk · May 22, 2013 at 12:12 am
Sorry guys, but I never said Rafa is at 100% yet. I do say that Rafa at 100% will beat Novak at 100%.
Steve · May 22, 2013 at 6:10 am
If Rafa is 100% I believe he beats Novak at the French, if he’s not 100% then Novak.
Also, I believe Fed has the upper hand on Nadal on fast courts. On indoor courts the edge is dramatic and modern day Wimby grass it is a slight edge.
If Djokovic and Nadal are on opposite sides of the draw I just assume Nadal makes the final but am not sure about Djokovic. Every player has a weakness to be exploited.
Dan Markowitz · May 22, 2013 at 8:07 am
Tough blow for Murray. That bad back must flare up even when he’s not losing. Not that Murray has ever been a factor on the clay, but I like Gulbis in the French. I think he was chastened by his close loss to Nadal in Rome. I think, in a sense, it was even better he lost that way because it will amp up his hunger. I have to see Janowicz play more. I know he’s another play who shows his emotion and that’s something, I believe, the game needs today. All the young players, Raonic, Dimitrov, Tomic and now even RHarry, are cold as stones out there.
Scoop Malinowski · May 22, 2013 at 8:52 am
If Fed and Djokovic are in the same half, it’s not looking good for Fed. How about these quotes by Uncle Toni, once again sticking the jab: “I do not see him amongst the favorites,†Toni Nadal said. “My top three favorites are [Novak] Djokovic, [David] Ferrer and Rafael. That’s today. Later we’ll see who is going to play better because [Juan Martin] del Potro, [Tomas] Berdych and [Grigor] Dimitrov can raise their levels and end up being candidates. I don’t see Federer so much as a favorite because that’s the rule of life. He’s played for many years and when you’ve won as much as Roger Federer … on clay, which is not his favorite surface, so maybe you’re not willing to sacrifice as much. Maybe he’ll be a favorite at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open, but not at Roland Garros.”
Scoop Malinowski · May 22, 2013 at 8:53 am
If Rafa is not yet at 100% now as evidenced by the way he trounced Federer in Rome, well, they might as well cancel Roland Garros and just give him the trophy.
Scoop Malinowski · May 22, 2013 at 8:59 am
Yes Steve hopefully both players will be 100% at their best this year, but what if Djokovic’s game, consistency and backhand up the line and angled cross court causes Rafa to only play at 80%? lol
Scoop Malinowski · May 22, 2013 at 9:03 am
Maybe Murray knows he can’t win Paris at his low confidence level so why bother, just focus on the big one he really wants, Wimbledon. Smart move. I like Gulbis too Dan, let’s hope he’s in Rafa’s section and they have a big rematch. You know Gulbis is just itchin to get his hands on Rafa again. Love those types of grudge matches. Paris crowd might embrace Gulbis too as they don’t adore Rafa like you would expect. Janowicz likes clay, I remember he came to the US Open 2-3 years ago and his training was from playing clay events in Europe. The big man likes the soft stuff.
Steve · May 22, 2013 at 9:03 am
Fed has a good chance of beating Djokovic if he wants it. See 2011 finger wag. Like Uncle Toni said it’s the natural cycle of things. Fed’s era was prime Hewitt, prime Safin, prime Nalbandian, prime Roddick…
How many 32 yr olds have won the FO?
I don’t see Djokovic getting 17 slams but we’ll see.
Steve · May 22, 2013 at 9:05 am
Scoop, Rafa’s will to win at the FO greater than Djokers. Dimitrov exposed a massive hole in Djoker’s game. Slice down the line will get you and attackable ball. babyFed did this over & over for winners.
Steve · May 22, 2013 at 9:06 am
I think we can say Rafa is at 100% right now which is wonderful news.
Scoop Malinowski · May 22, 2013 at 10:44 am
Steve, I believe Djokovic is saving and holding his very best for the one major title to elude him. Will you put money on Dimitrov if he plays Djokovic in Paris? Sumthin tells me no )
Scoop Malinowski · May 22, 2013 at 10:44 am
Rafa looks like 110% now Steve.
Steve · May 22, 2013 at 10:48 am
Scoop, I’d put some money on that not half my paycheck but sure. It could be a very profitably bet with the odds. If Djoker loses no one wants to hear excuses though. It’s the job of every pro to deal with crowds of all kinds.
Gans · May 22, 2013 at 11:05 pm
I agree with Scoop’s assessment here for most part!
First of, regarding the Fed-Nadal rivalry: Though I am a Federer fan, I don’t have any problem in admitting that Nadal has gotten better on all surfaces and is simply better. It’s quite obvious to see. Most Fed fans don’t agree not because they don’t see this but it’s difficult to admit and accept what they see. Mind plays tricks! 🙂
In contrast, Djokovic-Nadal is a true rivalry because they are evenly matched although Nole has gotten better now almost on all surfaces! Agreed, he needs to prove his consistency over a longer stretch and hence, more work to be done.
I still believe, Djokovic would have won the FO in 2011 had he reached the final, but Fed spoiled it. But unlike Scoop, I offer no excuses for Djokovic’s loss against Fed that year. He was simply outplayed by Federer.
In 2012 after winning the AO by mental and physical fortitude, Djokovic wasn’t the same player until the end of the year. Now this year, he once again delivered a decisive blow to Nadal in the Monte Carlo finals. This was a very important match for Nadal and he came short.
Now, regarding Djokovic’s recent losses:
The next time Djokovic meets Dimitrov, it would be a straight set win. That’s not an issue at all. What’s interesting to me is Novak’s loss to Berdych. He owned Berdych until that match, so it’s a bit strange to me why he lost.
Something tells me he wanted to avoid Nadal until the FO final. But why should he avoid Nadal if he is confident? So could it be that he wants to conserve his energy a week before French? In the past, I have believed that Rome is an indicator of who is going to win French. From that standpoint, Nadal is the favorite.
But I also believe that Novak would be highly motivated to win FO this year. I think, he wants to hold that mental edge against Rafa and doesn’t see a need to prove it in another master’s. I am taking it for granted that these two would reach the finals because I don’t see anyone stopping them from advancing.
Fast fwd to FO finals- the score is 6-2-2-6 7-6 5-7 and we are in the 5th set. It becomes a mental and physical struggle. I think Team Djokovic is preparing for that. I will have to eat my words if that doesn’t happen. But this is my expectation.
Regardless of whom he beat and the many titles he earned between Monet Carlo and the FO, Team Nadal will be really praying and hoping that someone ‘hot’ like Fed or Gulbis would take down Novak at the French, so they can be assured of another FO title. Because they know that Djokovic is the only man in the world who can dethrone a 100% fit Nadal at the French.
Cheers to Scoop, Dan and all at Tennis-prose!
Steve · May 23, 2013 at 12:58 am
^^True most Fed fans are blind but casual fans don’t take into account the age factor. Was Edberg in the same era as Agassi and Sampras? Of course he was losing the next gen of players. The H2H is a false stat on any level cause you don’t just play one guy to get a slam and every one has a bad match up. For Nadal it’s Davykenko, Djoker, Rosol & etc.
Is a 26 yr old Nadal better than a 32 yr old Federer? Yes. Is a 26 old Nadal better than a 26 yr old Federer? Trickier question.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 8:29 am
Nice post Gans, as always. Thanks for the well wishes. Well said about if the FO final goes to a fifth set, I suspect Team Nadal would be sweating it out if Rafa had to play Djokovic in such a big match. Anything can happen. It would be one of the most exciting matches to see of the modern era. Also believe that Team Rafa would be so very relieved if Djokovic gets upset by someone, but I can’t see that happening. Oh it’s going to be a thrill of a two weeks )
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 8:32 am
The 17 year old Nadal beat the 23 yr old #1 Federer in Miami. He always had the goods to beat Federer, even as a still growing boy.
Dan Markowitz · May 23, 2013 at 8:59 am
I do think the 26 year old Nadal is better than the the same age Federer. And here’s why–it’s been shown that Fed has a real weakness with his backhand. And he relies on it an awful lot. It’s not like he’s Sampras who didn’t stay back so much for opponents to pick on his backhand. Also, Fed’s forehand while an amazing shot, tends to fall apart and mis-hit a lot in big situations.
Nadal has no weakness. Yes, the backhand isn’t as powerful as the forehand, but it’s still a formidable shot. His serve has improved a great deal as have his volleys. He is more a complete player than Fed and then the spin he can put on that forehand is just something that puts him over the top as well as his competitive brio. Fed has shown that when adversity strikes, like in the big match against Djoko at the US Open, he breaks down quickly and somewhat surprisingly for a great champion.
Steve · May 23, 2013 at 9:15 am
Every player has weakness. Nadal isn’t great indoors and has yet to win at WTF, I believe. His shots tend to fall short against big hitters. Fed isn’t really tested by the Soderlings or Rosols. He beats these types of players rather easily.
When Fed was 26 he begaled Nadal twice, on clay and at Wimby, part of a bunch of wins he had.
Fed’s forehand worked smoothly for his 17 slams. His forehand was the greatest shot in tennis for at least six years.
Now the best shot it probably Djokovic’s return of serve –either side.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 9:45 am
Plus Rafa is harder to play than Fed, more than a few ATP players have told me this for my book, because Rafa fights for every single damn ball and he makes you suffer on the court. Fed plays the score and does not fight for every ball and he likes to go for his shots. The players I spoke with unanimously said it’s easier to play Fed though he is still very difficult to beat.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 9:50 am
I don’t think team Nadal puts the WTF as a very high priority, they target the majors and Masters Series. If the #1 race came down to WTF, which it hasnj’t in a few years, I think then we would see Rafa go all out. But the last few years it seems Rafa plays the WTF like an off season exhibition.
Henk · May 23, 2013 at 10:22 am
..and when Nadal was 17 he beat Roger on HC in Key Biscayne…
Made a whole study once where I analysed Roger’s and Rafa’s results (will try to find it in my archives) comparing on an age-level. Rafa came out far ahead when you look at what they achieved at similar ages.
I’m sorry but I can’t help laughing at “if Novak would have reached the final in 2011” he would have won against Rafa. First of all: he did NOT make it to the final and Rafa beat the guy (Roger) that took him out. The year after (2012) Novak did reach the final and was beaten fair and square by Rafa.
It’s as ridiculous as saying: “if Rafa wouldn’t have been dead-tiered afer all his wins in 2008 and coming off his most recent win at the Olympics, he would never have lost against Murray in the USO semis and subsequently would have beaten Roger in the finals”
I really hope Novak and Rafa will meet either in the finals or semifinals, but if they don’t and if Rafa wins RG, then please accept that the (at that moment) best player won the tournament.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 10:37 am
Henk I’d like to see that study you made. Agree with you about it, Rafa has achieved almost all his major successes at a younger age than Roger did. He adapted to the ATP Tour and Davis Cup far quicker than Federer was able to. And this is another feather in his cap which proves his superiority over Roger. But about your other point, questioning if Djokovic would have beat Rafa in the 2011 final had he beat Roger for the 7th or 8th time in a row…I have to ask you, if Soderling had mono that year that he beat Rafa in Paris and did not enter the draw, do you think Rafa still would have won the title that year? : )
Henk · May 23, 2013 at 10:39 am
… and when it comes to return of serve, Rafa and David (Ferrer) are way ahead of the pack, especially when it comes to return games won on ALL surfaces! Murray even does better than Djokovic.
Steve · May 23, 2013 at 10:40 am
Of course many pros prefer playing Federer. Nadal is more of a grinder. No one wants to run all day and lose. They’d rather lose by Fed hitting winners by them. Just because the Feds and Samprases of the world play the score doesn’t mean they are worse players.
Sorry Scoop you’ve entered the excuse zone once again. If a pro enters a tourney like the WTF they chose to play it. It’s an indoor fast court and because Fed “plays the score” he’s strong at the end of the year.
You don’t have any excuse for the era difference. New eras bring new styles. Agassi often beat Edberg but I factor in this difference.
Henk · May 23, 2013 at 10:46 am
Scoop, you have followed the other threads… You know very well why Rafa lost that year against Soderling and you agreed…and NO he most likely would not have won the tournament that year for the same legitimate reasons However, don’t really understand what you’re trying to get at?? What I’m saying is that it’s ridiculous to engage in the “what ifs”. There can be may reasons and what ifs, but in the end it’s the final result that counts
Henk · May 23, 2013 at 11:01 am
PS: The same Soderling – without mono – reached the RG final again the year after and was confronted with a healthy and confident Rafa who dismantled him in straight sets… enough said 🙂
Mitch · May 23, 2013 at 11:32 am
Rafa is a bad match up for Fed and will continue to dominate the H2H, but that alone doesn’t make him the better player. I would agree that Rafa is a better competitor, but Fed has racked up more accomplishments and been more consistent. Can the player who’s won two hard court slams be more complete than one with nine?
Henk · May 23, 2013 at 11:40 am
Mitch, when you put both player’s accomplishments next to one another, you may be in for a surprise. There are things that Rafa hasn’t reached and the same goes for Roger. If you really wish to use two HC slams for Rafa against nine for Rafa s prove who is the more complete player, then why not mention the sole Clay slam for Roger against 7 (and counting) for Rafa. As I mentioned above, the real comparison would be to look at who reached what at which age.
Dan Markowitz · May 23, 2013 at 12:14 pm
Henk,
I think you lose your arguing point a little here when you compare HC slams won to clay slams won because hard courts, like it or not, are now the most common surface (and considered the fairest surface) to judge a player on. Just because Rafa started winning slams earlier than Fed with his RG wins doesn’t mean he’s superior. I think he’s superior bc his overall record H2H is far better (20 to 10) and he’s taken 4 out of the 5 matches they’ve played on hard outside courts in their careers.
That and the fact Rafa is up 8-2 in slam matches they’ve played. Even take out Rafa’s 4 clay wins at RG against Fed and he’s still up 4-2. Now Fed’s 17 slams and the age difference then have to be considered, but I still give Rafa with only 11 slams the GOAT right now. Fed wins No. 18 I might reconsider, but I think Rafa will win 15 slams.
Steve · May 23, 2013 at 12:34 pm
We also must consider that in Nadal’s peak years all the surfaces of the slams play similarly. This is why all the greats are in awe of Borg.
Federer is much better at adapting to dif surface speeds whereas Rafa despised the blue clay of Mardid in 2012. Federer adapted smoothly defeating Berdych in the finals.
Mitch · May 23, 2013 at 1:44 pm
The real comparison will come when their careers are both over. If they both retired today, I personally think Fed’s haul would be more impressive.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 5:04 pm
Steve I believe in most matches there are several reasons why one player wins and one loses and it’s not always because one hit better shots or the very obvious reasons. I believe Djokovic would have beaten Federer, he had the set point in the first set, but the crowd was in his head and it uplifted Federer. It affected the match and the outcome IMO. Crowd also affected the US Open SF when Fed had the two match points, Djok hit that crazy winner off a first serve cross court and he did the arm wave and it brought about half the stadium to his side. And this flustered Fed and it uplifted Djokovic. These are two examples of how outside influences factored into determining a match outcome. There are many matches like this and I try to study and decipher matches. I also think Djokovic’s girlfriend’s vocal and animated and passionate support at the Aussie Open last year in the SF and F was a huge factor that helped inspire and uplift Djokovic to beat Murray and Rafa. That was the greatest performance by a box girlfriend/wife/significant other that I have ever witnessed.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 5:08 pm
Henk, it could have been about his parents divorce affecting Rafa’s spirit and focus. Yes it could have been. It could also have been just a remarkable incredible overpowering macho performance by Soderling, similar to what Rosol did last year at Wimbledon. Just not sure. It could have been personal problems for Rafa, or it could have been just that Soderling had the match of his life that day and was simply unbeatable that day. Can’t say for sure. If you read the Michael Joyce pieces about Henin vs. Sharapova and his own match vs. ATP #2 Michael Stich, you will see he gives concrete reasons and the influential reasons why those results happened.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 5:13 pm
Well Henk, Rafa also had the emotional incentive of revenge vs. Soderling so don’t forget that part of the equation ) ‘Nuff said? Prolly not : ) I know you will come back with another touche )
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 5:14 pm
Good comeback to Mitch Henk, you are a tough debater )
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 5:20 pm
But Steve, remember they used to say Rafa was just a one surface specialist, at one time people thought he would never win any other major besides Paris. I always believed he would win at Wimbledon, since the old tennis week forums days. I just knew it by how well he played the first couple of times on grass at Wimbledon, I knew he would figure it out and that he was unstoppable force. He troubled Fed the first time they played at Wimbledon and I knew he would eventually get him. Federer has always been an all surface player, he played a lot on clay as a kid, and hard court, and won junior Wimbledon. I believe Rafa has made greater strides to adapt and revise his game, worked on different things to keep improving while Federer’s game has pretty much stayed the game for a number of years with no real changes or adaptations except for bolstering his backhand and adding drops shots on red clay, and also adapting, like you say, to the blue clay though Rafa and Djok probably unconsciously tanked that event. Repeat, Jack Kramer invented the term “unconscious tank” in his book “The Game.”
Steve · May 23, 2013 at 6:32 pm
HAHAHAHA. Scoop, I don’t think Jack Kramer meant the “unconcscious tank” to be used every time your player loses. It’s starting to rival your use of “crowds”.
I remember your posts, you said Nadal whined & complained about the blue clay probably cause he really had no change to win on it. Madrid is the biggest even in his country outside of the last DC final.
Everyone knows the surfaces have leveled off. They may even play with the balls too. Proof is that there are more specialists really.
Also note when you study matches that when Djokovic loses he still has his entourage in the stands. I prefer to study the Xs & Os than the entourages.
Steve · May 23, 2013 at 6:34 pm
^^I meant proof is that there are NO more specialists really.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 7:26 pm
Jelena Ristic was really into those matches, more so than any other match that I saw him play. It was a special thing. She really believed in him those matches and it must have been really really important because she never has been that animated since. She totally believed in him and picked him up when he needed it. To the casual unoberservant eye, her cheering looked normal. But I know it was a special thing. And I’m going to interview her about it next time I see her. Missed her in Miami this year.
Scoop Malinowski · May 23, 2013 at 7:28 pm
Unconscious tank refers more to top rated players who lose to long shots in less important matches. I’m going to do a feature about it in the future. Jack Kramer knew what he was talking about regarding tennis Steve : )
Steve · May 23, 2013 at 8:49 pm
To call Madrid unimportant is rather lame. It’s a lot of points and a great tourney. Nadal plays it to win as we saw this year.
Scoop Malinowski · May 24, 2013 at 7:18 am
Nadal lost to Verdasco in Madrid, for the first time in his career, he had been like 11-0 vs. Verdasco. I don’t think Nadal was at his best in Madrid when it was blue. I don’t think he would ever lose to Verdasco at one of his favorite events like Monte Carlo.
Scoop Malinowski · May 24, 2013 at 8:52 am
Fed scores another good draw, does not have to play Rafa or Djok till finals. It sure does seem to always work out well for Fed in Paris.
Scoop Malinowski · May 24, 2013 at 8:52 am
Fed fans have to be very happy with this draw.
Harold · May 24, 2013 at 9:00 am
There always seems to be some EXCUSE for a loss. Injury, courts too fast, too slow. Blue instead of red.Windy, not windy, ate bad sushi the night before…the list of excuses go on and on
You step on the court, the excuses are over. Just say the other player was better that day and go on with your life. But 24 hour access has made us body language specialists(was the handshake at the end of the match real or phony?), interpreters of players talking in a second or third language.
As for Djoko’s GF, she was young and not used to knowing how to act on the big stage, having every expression on camera, i’d like to think she realized there’s some sort of etiquette to sitting in the players box, or take the chance of being compared to that guy in Spadea’s box, or she was afraid Fed was gonna tell her to STFU
Steve · May 24, 2013 at 11:44 am
“You step on the court, the excuses are over.”
Harold that’s the best post ever on these pages.
“But 24 hour access has made us body language specialists(was the handshake at the end of the match real or phony?), interpreters of players talking in a second or third language.” -YES but there was that one time Stepanek slipped Tips the finger after a DC match when shaking hands but that gesture transcends all languages.