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I Can See Federer Winning Roland Garros 2013
26 Comments · Posted by Scoop Malinowski in Articles, Scoop
This draw is a perfect chance for Roger Federer to capture another major, his 18th.
Here’s why: It’s very possible Nadal and Djokovic will reach the semis in two weeks and it’s entirely conceivable that they could play another six hour marathon, just as they did in Australia a couple of years ago.
Remember, also they played a four-hour war on red clay in a Masters Series a few years back, won by Rafa before the pre-Gluten-free Djokovic found his top form.
If Djokovic and Nadal take something out of each other in the semi, a fresh Federer pounces on the survivor to win the title, his 18th overall. I can definitely see this scenario playing out. Easily.
Fed’s draw looks okay, a couple of qualifiers, maybe Benneteau and Simon, Ferrer. This draw is not a nightmare for the 31-year old at all.
With the way this draw has worked itself out, I absolutely can see Federer taking this title, similar to how Pete Sampras stunned the tennis world at his final U.S. Open.
How about you?
(Photo by Henk Abbink)
Only a fool would count out Federer
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 10:55 am
If Djokovic prevails over Rafa and meets Fed in the final, this is a good matchup for Roger, he knows how to trouble the Serbian as all of their matches are fierce duels. But another factor which favors Federer IMO is the overwhelming crowd support Fed will get on Philip Chatrier. In 2011 it made the difference IMO, the adoring Paris crowd uplifted underdog Federer and really irritated and frustrated Djokovic with their support for Federer. It’s no secret Djokovic does not play his best tennis when a crowd is against him. And in Paris against Federer is about the worst case scenario Djokovic could play against. It’s going to be very interesting.
Mitch · May 25, 2013 at 11:55 am
This is the point I was trying to make. One of Roger’s few wins against Nadal on clay came in Madrid after that epic semifinal. Then again, Rafa had no trouble taking Fed out in 5 sets in the Aussie Open final after his grueling 5 hour match against Verdasco. On another note, the qualifier Fed plays could be dangerous; he’s won a ton of matches this year and skyrocketed up the rankings.
The magnitude of the occasion and opponent will probably get to him, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tight match. If Roger isn’t sharp, he could even drop a set or two.
Dan Markowitz · May 25, 2013 at 1:29 pm
How can Rafael have had “no trouble” winning a five-set match?
Mitch · May 25, 2013 at 2:06 pm
No trouble for Rafa in the sense that he didn’t succumb to fatigue and even seemed to be the fresher player in the fifth set.
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 2:48 pm
Mitch, is Fed playing that Spaniard Busta or something? I have noticed his record this year, he is winning a lot of matches and has shown he can win ATP matches. The guy says his idol was JC Ferrero, he’s 6-2 170, if we’re talking about the same guy.
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 2:50 pm
The only time I ever saw Rafa remotely tired was in the third set tiebreak in Miami in 2011 final vs. Djokovic. Rafa bent over and put his hands on his knees. The only hint of fatigue I have ever seen from Rafa. BTW all five setters are “trouble” for the winner. Anything can happen in a fifth set, a couple of mistakes can blow the match.
Steve · May 25, 2013 at 2:59 pm
Won’t be an issue for Rafa if he makes the final. He once played a famous marathon match against Verdasco before the Aussie finals. He didn’t look tired at all. Kind of superhuman.
But it’s time for a new winner. Sure Rafa is the favorite and Fed and Djokovic but it would be oh so nice for new title holder.
I don’t believe Ferrer will have to face Rafa in his run. Who will beat him?
Steve · May 25, 2013 at 3:13 pm
Brands & Rosol on clay probably won’t get the job done but Rafa doesn’t not have an easy draw though he’ll win decisively.
Bryan · May 25, 2013 at 5:44 pm
I’m sticking with my Djoker pick. He’s got a pretty easy path to the QF with only Isner (ha) and Tipsy serious threats. So he’ll win that and throwdown with Nadal in the SM. Clay may be Nadal’s best surface but this is a major and Djoker always brings his A game to those. Forget about his mediocre clay season to date.
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 6:33 pm
Curiously not tired at all vs. Fed in the final after surviving Verdasco Steve. That was a mystifying recovery. Fed was heartbroken after that loss.
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 6:36 pm
I see it exactly as you do Bryan. But if Djokovic is not at full strength for the final vs. Fed (should he get that far) and the Paris crowd conspires to inspire Fed and disturbs Djokovic, it could be another heartbreak for the Serbian.
Steve · May 25, 2013 at 6:47 pm
Yeah, I think having Laver on court afterwards may have driven him to tears. It was the first final he was in a slam final where he wasn’t #1 in a long time.
Last summer I got to take a tour of Roland Garros. I got to see the facilities up close and Rafa’s favorite locker which he uses every year. Got to stand on Court Central which is the most stunning court I’ve ever seen and I’ve seen three of the four main slam courts.
I’m very eager for this years FO and will be rooting the Gasquet/Piatti alliance onwards!
Steve · May 25, 2013 at 6:56 pm
Djoker vs. Fed with both at 100% is a 50/50 proposition at best for Novak.
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 8:13 pm
Laver’s presence but also Steve, the Aussie fans shouting their love to Fed also seemed to break him down too. I really thought the fans support during that sequence was what made him crack emotionally, more so than Laver but of course nobody really knows.
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 8:13 pm
Please send me a photo of the court if you took any!
Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2013 at 8:14 pm
LOL maybe in 2008 Steve, but by golly not now.
Steve · May 25, 2013 at 10:25 pm
Scoop never forget the 2011 FO finger wag. 🙂
gans · May 25, 2013 at 11:21 pm
Oh, I didn’t know this. What a shocker!
I don’t care what the seeds and ranking say, but Nadal and Djokovic should have been placed on the opposite side. This is a prime example how rules and tradition comes in the way of common sense.
Anyway, I still don’t see Fed winning the event. Both Nadal and Djokovic have shown that they can bounce back from a 5-setter semi-final. If it is Nadal reaching the final, he can beat Federer with one leg.
Here is the thing. The longer the semifinal goes, less the chance of Federer winning IF the finalist is Nadal. Why? Because against Nadal, Federer will become increasingly nervous when the pressure and the expectations to win mounts. 2009 AO is the proof. There he had Nadal where he wanted, but couldn’t keep it together himself. He choked in the very first game!!
Should Djokovic win the SF in 4 sets, then he WILL beat the fully rested Federer quite easily.
Should Djkovic take 5 sets and/or 5.5 hour or longer to beat Nadal, only then I think Federer has some chance IF he himself is relatively fresh. Even after such a long match I would still consider Djokovic to be the favorite simply because he has gotten that much better on slow courts.
I agree that by putting the two best clay courters on the same side of the draw, not only the thrill has been robbed but also this has given a hope, however small it may be for others such as Federer (no disrespect to Fed, but the gap between Djokovic and Nadal vs rest of the field on clay is significant) to play for something.
Cheers,
Gans
Steve · May 26, 2013 at 7:26 am
It’s fairly common that the semi-finals are tougher and more compelling than the finals. Plus Tsonga is Fed’s side as is Ferrer.
Hopefully Djokovic will face Dimitrov on the way. Will he avenge the babyFed loss or did Dimitrov find the perfect tactics for beating Djokovic?
Ferrer has a very good draw to the semis.
Scoop Malinowski · May 26, 2013 at 8:19 am
Astute and very acceptable analysis Gans as always. I feel the same way, it’s just impossible for Federer to beat Nadal in Paris or any red clay at this point. Federer will have an outside chance to beat Djokovic but he will need some help from the crowd and to play flawless near perfect tennis and serve his very best. He did this in 2011 maybe he can do it again. Fed played so well in 2011 he gave us the #1 finger wag, as noted by Steve, because he must have felt he played like the #1 player in the world that day.
Steve · May 26, 2013 at 9:15 am
“Federer will have an outside chance to beat Djokovic”
Fed just begaled Djoker last year in Cincy. Djoker doesn’t dominate Fed nor does he have a history of beating him in slam finals. Fed would have the edge against Djoker, in a final for a whole host of reasons.
You should do a book on Djokovic. 🙂 I expect another finger wag if they meet.
Henk · May 26, 2013 at 10:26 am
You all make it seem as if the draws are like a walk in the park. All main draw participants have fully earned the right to be there. There are some dangerous, good and even great players on all sides of the draws. So, any of the top players (including Novak, Roger and Rafa)can be upset by any of the others on any given day, depending on circumstances. If, and I repeat IF indeed they all make it to the semis then no matter who wins the Novak-Rafa battle or how many hours they’ll be on court, the finals player from the other half of the draw will face an in-form opponent on the other side of the net. There are almost 2 days of rest between the semis and the finals, as opposed to Australia where Rafa, after his grueling match you’re all referring to, had less than a day’s rest and still managed to win over Roger in yet another 5-set encounter.
Scoop Malinowski · May 26, 2013 at 8:43 pm
Agree Henk, no draw is easy, some players rise up and play their best tennis, it happens so many times, like Mike Russell against Guga for just one example, Rosol vs. Rafa, Yzaga vs. Sampras, Haehnel vs. Agassi. I think Rafa is so dominant he is immune from being upset, he is so strong mentally, plays every ball like match point, it’s so hard to catch him off guard. Rosol and Soderling did it but geez, the way they played was like out of this world tennis, smashing every ball for winners, totally in the zone. Youzhny got Rafa once at the US Open too and again Rafa didn’t blow it, Youzhny was just playing out of his mind, coming from behind, he just got in the zone. Federer has been immune to upsets in majors too, once in a while Tsonga or Berd get him. Fed and Rafa have been the most consist performers in majors I have ever seen. Sampras and Agassi had a few duds in their times, Pete lost to Bastl and Kucera, Fed and Rafa would never lose matches like those.
Steve · May 27, 2013 at 8:18 am
“Brands & Rosol on clay probably won’t get the job done but Rafa doesn’t not have an easy draw though he’ll win decisively.”
Brands is not only tough for Rafa he’s vaporizing him at the moment.
tootsie · May 27, 2013 at 11:18 am
Vaporizing him? What a ridiculous comment.
Steve · May 27, 2013 at 11:52 am
Brands absolutely vaporized returns on serves to his backhand side. That’s the best word for it. Brands may not be quite as talented as Gulbis but has a cooler head. Very dangerous player as I discovered when he played Gasquet last year.
Nadal figured it out though.