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The Swami Says…Picks of the 2 Best Matches of Day 2 of Aussie O
33 Comments · Posted by Scoop Malinowski in Bios
A little tardy starting this post, but here it is, “The Swami Says…” And I is the Swami, make no mistake about that. I rarely miss a pick. Your picks will be tallied at the end of the fortnight and anyone who beats me gets to accompany Scoop and me to the US Open Qualis this year and watch the matches, talk tennis and generally have a great time. I will not only pick the winner, but give you an Under/Over in games for each match and pick that stat. The point system works as follows: pick the winner if he’s the favorite, you win 5 pts; pick the winner if he’s the underdog, you win 15 points, pick the over/under correctly, you win 10 pts. The winners will be announced after the finals and it will be the cumulative total that is counted. Let the games begin:
Today’s Picks
1. Nadal v. Tomic–Everyone wants to see this match, but it’s going to be hard for East Coasters in the U.S. as it airs live at 3 a.m. No one expects Tomic to win this match and neither do I. But I will pick him on the over of 14 games won.
Nadal (Tomic goes over 14 games won)
2. There are a number of interesting choices for the second match of the day. I like the Bettanie Mattek-Sands v Sharapova match, Klahn-Dimitrov, Seppi-Hewitt, DY-Haase, Brands-Simon, Sock-Kamke, RWill/Delpo matches and the Camilia Giorgi opus (just to see if she steals the racquet bag of her opponent after the match), but I’m going with the Harry v Monfils match. The Frenchman is on a roll having gotten to the finals of one of the Aussie O warmup events. In a way, even though Harry is six years Monfils’ junior, and Monfils is still only 27 and fit as a fiddle (always with injury concerns, though), it’s a put-up-or-shut-up match for both players. Harry had a down year last year and if he starts off 2014 with another slam clunker, it might be hard for him to recover. Monfils looked like he was close to retirement last year and a loss to Harry might send him down that road.
Monfils (Harry goes over 20 games won)
So give us your picks and Over/Under for Nadal-Tomic match (14 games) and Harry-Monfils (20 games).
Pick the 2 Best Aussie Open Matches of Day 2
Mitch · January 13, 2014 at 5:16 pm
I’ll go with Nadal and Monfils and take the under on both.
DanM · January 13, 2014 at 5:20 pm
Under on Harry getting 20 games, Mitch?
Mitch · January 13, 2014 at 5:59 pm
Yes. Monfils will probably do something silly and drop a set (or two), but hard to see Harry hurting him from the back of the court.
Scoop Malinowski · January 13, 2014 at 6:32 pm
I see Harrison upsetting Monfils. Tomic will get steamrolled, win under fourteen games.
Doogie · January 13, 2014 at 6:36 pm
My must see matches for today:
Isner vs Klizan
Paire vs Dancevic
Seppi vs Lleyton
Think these 3 could be close with lot of up and downs.
My upset for today is:
Kokkinakis
Andrew Miller · January 13, 2014 at 6:36 pm
Nadal wins in 30 games. I see a 7-6, 6-2, 6-4 match.
Harrison beats Monfils. 4 sets.
Camilla Giorgi loses b/c of the Melanie Oudin factor.
Sharapova wins.
Dimitrov (surprise!) loses in 4 sets. Klahn is suddenly taken seriously. Finally.
Hewitt wins.
DY wins.
Brands.
Sock.
Del Potro doesn’t let Rhyne get more than 8 games.
Andrew Miller · January 13, 2014 at 6:37 pm
Doogie knows how to pick em. Kokkinakis is great.
Dan Markowitz · January 13, 2014 at 8:45 pm
The games under/over is the amount of games the loser wins not the total played. Brutally hot and the Tennis Channel is making us watch Azarenka play against Joni Mitchell look a like, Swedish Larsson. Women’s tennis is such a bore. Why can’t they show us some Klahn, who’s won first set against Dimtrov?
Doogie · January 13, 2014 at 9:01 pm
@dan
dimitrov – klahn is on a none TV showcourt. On internet u can watch on 7 courts. (but not court 19 where Klahn plays)
Andrew Miller · January 13, 2014 at 9:08 pm
Klizan up a set on Isner. Isner relying on serve. Klizan seems like a poor man’s Klahn.
Watching some Nishikori-Matosevic. I don’t see top 10 for Nishikori – if so, not for long.
Tsonga looked good vs. Volandri. Big game Tsonga! Volandri no slouch. Showing good stuff in set 1.
Oceans 11 star Camilla Giorgi holding steady in Set 1.
Andrew Miller · January 13, 2014 at 9:22 pm
Dimitrov now up 2 sets to 1. Question how much in the tank for Klahn.
Scoop Malinowski · January 13, 2014 at 9:26 pm
Duckworth going after the Fed backhand early here.
Scoop Malinowski · January 13, 2014 at 9:31 pm
Somewhat subdued greeting of Federer as he entered Laver Arena, thought he would have got more love than that.
Scoop Malinowski · January 13, 2014 at 9:35 pm
Isner looks like he’s playing on one good leg, fighting Klizan and the leg problem. That brutal Lu final in Auckland has taken a toll on the big man.
DanM · January 13, 2014 at 9:43 pm
How can Izzie have a leg problem when he just won Auckland? What is with it with Izzie? He gets hurt more than I do.
Was watching Giorgi v Sanders (how come all the young Aussie gals are on the hefty side–Casey D., Sanders and even Barty? Must be a lot of fried fatty food in Oz) and that Giorgi is definitely an attractive package. She plays the game almost like a smaller Azarenka in that she goes for every shot right off the serve/return, but she hits the ball flatter than Aza. She either hits a winner or a loser–no in between.
Scoop Malinowski · January 13, 2014 at 10:15 pm
Isner had a rough battle with Lu in the Auckland final Dan. Lu was playing like his life was on the line, lost 67 67 but he really wanted it. Forced Isner to his limits. Lu was down 0-40 in two consecutive serve games in the second set and won both games. Isner had to expend a lot of energy and movement to dig out the win. I suspect that match took something out of Isner. He didn’t have two legs today, he couldn’t change direction to go back to his backhand. Tough luck. It’s a miracle a big tree like Isner has gotten to where he is top fifteen with his basketball body. Isner is a deceptively tough baseliner when need be. He’s more than just a big server.
Scoop Malinowski · January 13, 2014 at 10:16 pm
Watch out for Halep, she won 0 and l today.
Andrew Miller · January 14, 2014 at 2:12 am
U.s. men’s tally:
Isner, Smyczek, Klahn, Kudla, Johnson, Russell lose rd 1.
Remaining:
Rd 1: dy, rhyme Williams, Harrison, odesnik, sock
Rd 2: Querrey
Rhyme won set 1 and lost set two vs. Delpotro.
Dy lost set 1 to haase.
Sock on serve.
Odesnik split sets with millot. Set three.
Hewitt down two sets to one to seppi.
Oceans star Giorgi who will be opposite clooney and Pitt is in rd two. She does hit the ball. She could be oudin or aravane rezai or top twenty.
Andrew Miller · January 14, 2014 at 2:14 am
Isner. He’s unhappy for sure.
Dan Markowitz · January 14, 2014 at 6:51 am
Why does Izzie play an event the week before a slam like he did a couple of years ago in Winston Salem? He knows he can’t be extended before a slam and yet he plays these small events and then often has nothing left for a slam. Is that greed or just bad scheduling?
DY comes back for a nice win. A whole lot of defaults. Must be because of the heat. You would think DY would be the one going down. Nice win for Sock over tough Kamke. Harry played Monfils tough it seems, didn’t see match, but didn’t win a single set.
Scoop Malinowski · January 14, 2014 at 8:14 am
Sock with a nice win in the heat over Kamke who beat Delpo in Miami last year. Sock must be fit to handle the heat as I saw him retire early in second to Steve Johnson in high 80 heat at Sarasota Challenger last April. DY is lean and mean. Another respectable effort by Harrison vs. a hot top player La Monf. Hat’s off to Simon and Nishikori. Watch out for Nick Kyrgios people.
Scoop Malinowski · January 14, 2014 at 8:15 am
Very good question why Isner schedules a tourney before the majors like he often does, Djokovic and Nadal and Fed don’t. Kid’s gotta learn.
Doogie · January 14, 2014 at 8:32 am
On one side the 250 points for the tournament win is not bad. On other side: Draw was open for Izzy with Kohlschreiber out. Generally high ranked players SHOULD not play week before GS imo. Maybe Izzy feel/know that he has no deep run at AO (heat) in him?? At some degree I can understand him.
Dancevic and Fed (!!!) about the heat and this time I totally agree with Fed. But some players have more problems with some not – this is not ONLY due to practice. Nevertheless I like what Fed said!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/14/us-tennis-open-heat-idUSBREA0D0A220140114?feedType=RSS&feedName=sportsNews
Dan Markowitz · January 14, 2014 at 8:39 am
Alright, Scoop, I want a full apology for your banner Hewitt waving before the Aussie O. The guy just doesn’t go deep in slams. Losing to Seppi isn’t embarrassing, but it’s not impressive either. And you’re comparing this guy to Johnny Mac, who I’ll bet you right now might’ve lost maybe once in the first round of a slam his whole career, that time he was kicked out of the Aussie O playing Pernfors. You must apologize. I will accept nothing less.
First day leader, Mitch, who got both matches and both over/unders.
Andrew Miller · January 14, 2014 at 9:28 am
Results: u.s., dy sock Querrey make rd 2. That’s it.
Harrison loses to monfils straights. Rhyne loses delpo in 4. Odesnik losses to millot in five.
Other: Hewitt loses to Seppi. Rd. 1. Five sets.
NCAA champ blaz rola of Slovenia wins. Devvarman klahn Johnson as other ncaa champs lose.
3 u.s. players in Rd. Of 64.
Start cheering for pospisil and raonic. I added them to “north america” to make it possible to cheer for a larger amount of players and also u.s. citizen tommy Haas rich berankis , bogomolov, dancevic and tursunov.
So that means tursunov raonic posposil are helping out dy sock and Querrey.
Right.
Scoop Malinowski · January 14, 2014 at 10:07 am
Tough loss for Hewitt, I think the heat did him in. Older players over 30 are struggling with the heat more than younger players. Step, Ben Becker, etc…plus Seppi seems to have Hewitt’s number he is now 4-3 lifetime vs. Hewitt, beat Hewitt handily last fall in Shanghai. I thought Hewitt played a great match, he looked quick, smooth but he was always behind the 8 ball after losing the first set tiebreak. Seppi is tough. A simpler draw playing someone like Duckworth Odesnik or Smyczek or Spadea would have been perfect for Hewitt. Spadea never beat Hewitt.
Scoop Malinowski · January 14, 2014 at 10:09 am
Lemme repeat. Watch out for this Nick Kyrgios. Someone told me Kyrgios, with a fair degree of confidence, will be the next ATP first time major winner by 2016.
Andrew Miller · January 14, 2014 at 10:28 am
Tomic 4-6 retirement to Nadal career low?
Kyrgios: make a slam quarterfinal then we’ll talk odds.
Who is the most impressive young aussie?
Kokkinakis.
Andrew Miller · January 14, 2014 at 10:48 am
Cahill says u.s. men’s future is bright and sees more u.s. players in top 20 from this generation and future top players from generation after this one. Cahill is not one to heap praise. Evidence suggests otherwise but Cahill is for real.
Dan Markowitz · January 14, 2014 at 11:32 am
You’re right, Scoop, Spadea never beat Hewitt, but never to lost to Seppi, 3-0, including wins at the Masters events in Miami and Cincy when Spadea was 31 and then 32 and Seppi was 22. In fact, Spadea never a single set to Seppi.
Hewitt had match point against Seppi at 4-5 in 5th set and Seppi hit a bomb of first serve out wide, very clutch serve, “lowest percentage serve” as Gimelstob said. “Gutsy serve by the Italian.”
Look, all the Aussie players except the young guns Kokkinakis and Kyrgios)and Ebden are out now. Pretty tough draws though, facing Nadal, Seppi and Nishikori. How about these two young Aussies, though? Kokky–17 and Kyrgios–18, that’s extraordinary that they’re both in the 2nd round of a slam. With Tomic, they look to be the dominating country in the next 10 years.
Andrew Miller · January 14, 2014 at 11:43 am
I apologize for Hewitt! I believed he would get to the Nadal match. Never let sentiment get in way of accuracy: Hewitt was the underdog vs a seed. By no means was he the favorite even with resume.
Australia strategy is good -,they’ve remained relevant in tennis. But dont forget that they like the u.s. are also on the verge of having no players in rd. 3. Much as I like sock dy Querrey kokkinakis kyrgios and ebden to believe most of them make rd of 32 is to believe all of them are top 40 in world. None are.
A lot on shoulders of Querrey.
Andrew Miller · January 14, 2014 at 11:55 am
Not sure about entire slate of aussie players. They absolutely flooded the qualifying draw and no aussie player made it from qualies to the main draw. In contrast u.s. players either made it or made final rd of qualifying with some quality players like kuNetsov and my favorite one handed BH player kosakowski . the u.s. flooded the main draw behind isner Querrey Russell dy sock harrison Johnson Kudla odesnik rhyme Williams klahn – one of nearly every ten players was from the u.s. in rd of 64,only 3 which is now one for twenty or 5%.
So much as I like Cahill you look at the reality and say even given players injuries like Isner this is most u.s. players best surface with exception of Kudla who prefers the grass and dirt. Sure klahn and rhyme played their seeded players tough but all that matters is who makes rd. 2.
Here’s hoping u.s. players gear up for Indian wells and Miami and dont stay allergic to the clay. The u.s. excuse of we only play well in the summer on our home courts is now a huge liability – you can’t make the top 50 dining only on a hard court menu especially if you play a bad period down under during the aussie swing.
Id be pessimistic on the femme side too if it weren’t for the fact of up and coming players like Sloane stephens .
Scoop Malinowski · January 14, 2014 at 1:36 pm
Kyrgios beat Stepanek in straight sets at French Open last year. I spoke with his brother and he said Step bumped into Nick to intimidate him during a changeover in third set. But the kid handled it. Tough kid. Watch out. Saw him battle Ferrer on Armstrong last US Open he gave him a rumble.