Opinion: Thiem Will Win Roland Garros

I was surprised at how many people were rooting for Sock against Nadal despite a lot of people with Nadal signs. The Rome crowd seems unique to me – there are a lot who seem to root for the underdog regardless of who they are playing.

Thiem being a high effort player resembling Nadal’s effort will gain him a lot of fans. The high effort characteristic was always the biggest appeal of Nadal all these years, right?

For RG, I would still put Nadal as the favorite just because it’s a major. Thiem might beat him though if it comes down to pure tennis rather than intangibles.

I have been a big fan of young Thiem for some time, and think he will win some big titles in his career. Is he ready to win RG this year? That would be a huge step. His immediate task is to win Rome, winning a Masters 1000 at age 23 in the current tennis world would be a big accomplishment.

I have to admit, I am more than ready to see some players other than the Big 3 win Slams and Masters. It looks like both Dominic Thiem and Sascha Zverev have the talent, skill and mental toughness to do that. Would love to see that happen soon, but whether it does happen this season, am not so sure.

“Thiem wins two sets, now favored for enormous slam triumph” <– Nope! Not how this sport works. I wonder if Thiem will even survive his Rome semifinal. All credit to him for the career upset, but I don't see him winning even Rome.

Big fan of Thiem and well deserved win! However, why do you immediately have to find Rafa “vulnerable”? You did the same the year Novak won Monte Carlo for the first time (2013) and you were very quick in proclaiming a “New King of Clay”. Rafa has once won the clay slam when he skipped Barcelona and otherwise he has never won all clay tournaments prior to (winning!) Roland Garros from 2005-2008 and 2010-2014. He’s lost at Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome and Hamburg (when it was still a Masters) on previous occasions, but won RG those years anyway. So, any loss prior to RG is very far from indicative of his chances at RG. He’s even won RG when he went out of Rome with gaping blisters!

Is Dominic a RG contender? For sure! Will it happen this year? I doubt it, but it could. Will Rafa win RG? He’s definitely still the favorite but it will depend on if he can re-peak as I wrote in a previous thread. He’s played six finals and won three, so not so strange he’s out of Rome. Nothing new. It happened before!

It’s funny when Novak loses it’s “because he has his eye on Roland Garros” and “tanks his matches” as he doesn’t care and when Rafa loses he’s immediately without a chance to win RG…
Rafa, as well as Roger, are among the few players who recognize they can lose on any given day against any (top-form) player.
Also strange criticizing a player’s passion to play as many as possible tournaments on his favorite surface in stead of applauding his quest.

Your Monte Carlo Goffin match remark is absolutely irrelevant and negative ambience-creating. Why on earth would Rafa have to ‘over rule’ an umpire when he is on the other side of the court. It would have been different if a wrong call was made on his side of the court. He has on more than one occasion given points when wrong calls were made om his side of the court even though it cost him the game. You really think, because of ONE point at such an early stage, Goffin lost that match…? That’s an insult to both players!

Simona in Rome final barely raising a sweat.

If it’s v Muguruza should be interesting. But Simona in 2 I’d say.

Vamos Rafa! Jetzt geht’s los Thiem!
The best, most consistent and most deserving players on clay, so far. Fearless fighters as opposed to, for example, the likes of Murray hoping the opponent will make an error.
That would be an awesome final in Paris, if the draw allows it and some others don’t start peaking.
Rafa consoled Thiem in Madrid, mentioning he knew what it felt like to lose (3) finals and that Dominic would surely soon win one. Let’s hope it will be Rome!
The fact that Dominic played better, this time, doesn’t mean a thing. Just remember how Rafa lost on clay vs Roger and Djokovic but won Roland Garros by beating them in the semis and finals.
Rafa, unsportsman-like…? No way!

“Nadal hates losing”<-not a surprise either.

Scoop, Rafa didn’t make the final at IW. That was Acapulco where Sam was on a roll and beat Rafa big time.

So, according to you Rafa faked injury in Australia and Wimbledon? Fine with me. We’re both entitled to our (different) opinions but let’s, at least, stick to the facts. The boos were when he returned from the locker room but soon everybody, INCLUDING Stan, realized there really was something terribly wrong when play resumed.
Also why not be consistent in your judgement…as at the same time now you would have liked him to fake injury and retire from Rome after the 2nd round to conserve energy for Paris. So when he’s hurt but still finishes the match win or lose, he’s faking and when he’s not hurt and plays to try and win another tournament you critique him and his team for not faking an injury so he could have left Rome prior to losing…?!

How come you never ever mention Novak’s retirements and also his almost Grand Slam in retirements (Paris, Wimbledon, Australia – he only misses USO) when he was on the losing end. Even Roger complained about this.

Stan beat Rafa fair and square at the AUS Open and if there are people who think differently that’s their problem but, please, don’t talk about what’s fair or not when you don’t give the complete fair picture and single out Rafa for gamesmanship, creating negativity and are not consistent in when he should or should not fake injuries.
It’s your perception and yours only that Rafa put a damper on that AUS final. So, what’s your perception of when Rafa beat Roger in the AUS final and all attention went to Roger afterwards because he couldn’t stop crying. Do you remember how Rafa embraced him? A completely genuine and heart-felt gesture. Those are the noteworthy moments that define the man and the player, not the silly ambience-creating ‘gossip’ and ONE ‘wrong line call’ he had absolutely nothing to do with – especially since he was on the completely opposite end of the court.

Anyway, Paris is going to be exciting. I will be there the first days (when the draw is still ‘full’) and the second week, also combining with cheering on the top wheelchair tennis players.

Off-thread: I noticed in one comment you mentioned Kiki as being French. Kiki (assuming you mean Kiki Bertens) is Dutch. Simona kicked her butt today but she’s definitely a contender in Paris. She grew up on clay, just like Dominic.

Hartt, Zverev is an amazing all-court player, showing no nerves when it counts. “This 20-year-old is now in a Masters 1000 final”. Yes, great stuff!

However, people are forgetting that Rafa at that age had already competed in 11 Masters finals and won 9 and that included HC finals in Miami aged 18 (l. to Federer in 5), Indian Wells (won), Canada (won) and Madrid (won – hard court then too) As a teen and when reaching the tender age of 20, he broke all previous records, going for his 4th GS ( 1 Wimbledon, 3 RG) final in Paris and winning a ridiculous 21 titles before turning 21 and his 22nd and 3rd GS title a few days after turning 21 and then his 2nd final at Wimbledon a few weeks later. No one, except Bjorn Borg, has even come close to this achievement.
Didn’t mean to bore you with history but many don’t really (want to) realize how great, exceptional and far from a one-dimensional player Rafa has been from age 16 onwards (making it to the 3rd round at the Monte Carlo Masters), when most are still playing on the junior ITF circuit. Follow players from a young age but still haven’t seen any NextGen player with the potential to achieve what Rafa has achieved before turning 21.

Hartt, Young Zverev putting the pedal to the medal in the third set is Phenomenal. Rome final shaping up to be must see tv.

Catherine: “Can’t see Bertens doing much in Paris. Just hasn’t got the game”

You must have a great crystal ball.
Hasn’t got the game? She made it to the Roland Garros semis last year and lost 6-7, 4-6 to Serena in a match that could have gone both ways. Made it to the Quarters in Madrid last week, now Semis in Rome. So, I’d say she definitely has the game on clay. Whether that’s enough to win is another story, but it does make her a contender.

Grace – you’re right, Bertens will be a contender in Paris, along with a few other players, but I can’t honestly see her a finalist, and that’s what I meant I suppose.

Federer was superior at young age to most players. Far cry from today’s pretenders to the throne, where we make many excuses for today’s young players (“need more experience…hasn’t been in enough three setters…faced Karlovic in round one…tough draw…”) etc.

Overall I’d say Federer, Nadal caught a break because Sampras and Agassi and Rafter etc were at the end of their careers and Safin, Rios didn’t care enough about the sport, and Tommy Haas was just marginally worse than most of them, so close yet so far from any kind of breakthrough and just unlucky with so many injuries in his prime.

But I don’t think Federer, Nadal, Djokovic were destined, or Murray, they hired some phenomenal coaches and already had some of the best coaching and they put in the work.

If Zverev the Younger wants in he has to beat Djokovic tomorrow and send Djokovic home to Monaco with doubts about his French Open chances, just snuff them out completely. If Djokovic wants to prove he still has plenty left in the tank he needs to win tomorrow.

But let’s not make excuses for other players who weren’t big four. Wawrinka was no superman, he was a talented player who decided to become a force in the game.

Simona in Rome final is great. She has to shut the door on Svitolina. If there are no occ breaks I’m sure she can do it. But with Halep I always have this lingering feeling that a few sprayed balls and she loses the thread on a match and comes unraveled. Perhaps no different than any other player in a game of inches. Thought she should have won the tournament in Germany that Siegemund won. Where’s Laura now?
Nowhere.

Andrew
Siegemund won in Stuttgart because Angie had lost and the German crowd willed her on in her home town. She played above herself and Simona wasn’t hugely motivated to win. Things reverted to normal in Rome.
Could be close v Svitolina and a couple of months ago I would have agreed with you but I think Simona has made a leap forward since then – Madrid was a big win for her mentally.
But we’ll see.

Thank you Henk and Grace for stepping up when Scoop goes on one of his uninformed ridiculous rants about Rafa. So every single player in the ATP has taken a medical timeout at some point but it’s Rafa who is doing it as gamesmanship. *rollseyes*

After that AO final, Rafa suffered from back problems all year until he finally had a platelet/stem cell procedure done in the off season. After such a terrific 2013, a reasonable person might reasonably assume he didn’t just forget how to play tennis in 2014 when his results suffered.

As for the crowd booing Rafa, it wasn’t the ‘crowd’, it was a section of bitter Fed fans who had switched their allegiance to Wawrynka for the final that Stan had gotten all riled up with his unsportsmanlike ranting and raving at the umpire during the MTO. The rest of the crowd were shocked at the booing and were stunned into silence for a moment until they all started cheering for Rafa to drown out the nastiness. This info comes from people who were actually there at the arena.

And Scoop, name me one player who has overturned the call of an umpire who has gotten out of his chair to check a mark at the opposite end of the court. Name one, just one. There are plenty, including Rafa on numerous occasions, who have conceded points on their own side of the net. Even Goffin himself said Rafa had nothing to do with the call and that Rafa is one of the fairest players on the tour.

Hey there sharoten! Thanks for the support and being another voice or reason. I don’t mind Scoop goes on (a) rant(s). He likes to provoke. I do mind when the full picture is not given and there are insinuations that are not correct.

I heard what you write too and as I wasn’t here myself, it’s nice to get confirmation from other sources. I did watch live streaming so I heard and saw how the crowd cheered for Rafa. I agree Stan exaggerated. As a hitting mate, he knows Rafa and his camp and should have known better.

Cheers

Thiem talked about how Novak is a bad match-up for him because Novak takes time away and of course Dominic needs time for the big windup he has for his shots. Thiem also acknowledged that he was mentally tired for that match.

Bad bad loss for Simona. Unless there was a reason – injury etc.
Otherwise, Cahill will not be pleased.

My WTA prediction: Angelique Kerber will win the French Open.

Thanks Chazz – but great time to have an injury. Even if she’s fit for RG that match won’t have helped her mentally.

I’m not a fan hitting the panic button – but Simona tends to injuries – if there’s any doubt she should skip Paris – but she won’t. She has a history of playing on through injuries and paying in the end.
Should have grabbed her chance in the 2nd set.