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Day Three At Wimbledon: Spotting The Upsets
11 Comments · Posted by Scoop Malinowski in Articles, Bios
The first two days at Wimbledon 2013 certainly raised quite a few eyebrows, both among avid fans of the sport and people who like to bet on sports as part of the thrill of watching one of the best tennis tournaments. If you are one of the people who like to bet online, some of you may already be gnashing your teeth at the rash of upsets this early into the tournament. You can try out and compare your theories with some of the best sports wagering strategies for Wimbledon 2013 available at www.wageronsports.com. One trick to finding the best odds is to seek out potential tournament upsets. They don’t come around all the time, otherwise they wouldn’t be called upsets, but they can lead to some big winnings. Check out the stats and tips below for some inspiration.
Wimbledon upsets
Tennis fans has become used to the “Big Four” (that is, Djokovic, Federer, Nadal, and Murray) reaching the semi-finals at a Grand Slam. In fact, no player outside the top four has reached a Grand Slam final since Tomas Berdych at Wimbledon in 2010, or won a Grand Slam since Juan Martin del Potro took victory at the US Open in 2009.
But Day One at Wimbledon 2013 blew the statistics out of the water as Rafael Nadal was knocked out in the first round by 29-year-old Steve Darcis. Was it expected? No. But was it predictable? Maybe. Darcis beat Tomas Berdych, current world number 6, at Wimbledon in the London Olympics last year, and Nadal has just played the entirety of the French Open having only recently returned from a 7-month injury lay-off.
Perhaps a bit of research can help pick an upset, then? Statistics, though, can only get us so far; beyond that we must rely on gut instinct. So, if a Belgian, ranked at a lowly 135 in the world, can pull off such an upset, what are the odds of more upsets today? And can you pick them?
Day Two review
Top seed and word number one, Novak Djokovic, achieved a comfortable victory over German Florian Mayer, in a replay of last year’s quarter-final. Although Djokovic managed to avoid replicating Nadal’s unexpected demise, six other seeds have exited the competition at the first hurdle: Gilles Simon (19), Sam Querrey(21), Philipp Kohlschreiber (16), Stanislas Warwinka (11) Fabio Fognini (30), and Janko Tipsarevic (14). It seems there is still plenty of mileage in betting on the underdog.
The women’s singles also saw it’s fair share of victories against the odds, with 19-year-old Brit, Laura Robson, trouncing Maria Kirilenko, ranked world number 10. For those keen to bet on sports, the women’s draw provides good odds of an upset, with seven seeds failing to make it past the first round. Though Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova both progressed safely to the next round.
Day Three preview
Andy Murray is back in action tomorrow on Court One against Yen-Hsun Lu, who knocked out British number two, James Ward, in the first round. Will this be sweet patriotic revenge? Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Roger Federer are both on Centre Court and, a little further down the order of play, Serbia’s Viktor Troicki is due to play Alex Kuznetsov on Court 10, having eliminated 14th seed Janko Tipsarevic in the first round.
Troicki is now odds on to at least reach the last 16, where he is likely to meet Andy Murray, and he is not short on sporting pedigree, having reached the same stage in last year’s competition only to lose to compatriot, Novak Djokovic. As a general rule, seed-slayers provide a good betting opportunity since seeded players are favoured in the draw. Therefore, any player who beats a seed in the first round can be sure of reaching the third round before they meet another seeded player.
Court Two at SW19 is often known as the “Graveyard of Champions”, and is always worth a look for those on the hunt for an upset. Tomorrow, 10th seed, Marin Cilic is up against Frenchman, Kenny de Schepper, and 2002 Wimbledon champion, Lleyton Hewitt, takes on Dustin Brown. Brown, a German-based Jamaican, has a huge serve and an unconventional baseline power and touch game which could befuddle Hewitt as it did Sam Querrey in Newport in 2010. Brown upset Querrey 63 64 in 47 minutes that day. Perhaps Brown is an interesting wager for bettors to consider.
Betting on sports
The 2013 Wimbledon draw is a rich source of opportunity for those with a nose for sniffing out good sports odds. If you fancy your chances and wish to indulge in a friendly bet on sports, including Wimbledon, ask a good friend to accept a friendly wager (maybe a beer or two at the pub?) and see where your luck and the odds,of course, take you.
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Steve · June 26, 2013 at 10:25 am
Nadal was defeated by injury. Let’s be real. The only thing that can stop Nadal regularly is injury. A bad knee can defeat anyone.
Scoop Malinowski · June 26, 2013 at 10:40 am
Knee looked perfect in Paris and in the first two sets Steve. I think Darcis played the match of his life. Just like Dustin Brown did today. Sometimes the lesser athletes can perform above and beyond their norm and they can shock the world. Rosol, Buster Douglas, Peter Doohan, Melanie Oudin…Upsets happen all the time. Rafa gave full credit to Darcis.
Scoop Malinowski · June 26, 2013 at 10:51 am
Though I do have to say I will not be betting the upset the next time Darcis meets Rafa )
Steve · June 26, 2013 at 11:00 am
…and Darcis said Nadal didn’t play his best which was obvious. Clearly something was very wrong with Nadal running around his backhand constantly and when he hit it there was nothing on it.
The knee/injury was the key factor. Suddenly catching Fed’s slam count looks a lot further away.
Andrew Miller · June 26, 2013 at 12:27 pm
The number of injuries is ridiculous. Tsonga retired? Darcis? Azarenka? Isner? Come on – this is Wimbledon, world’s most important tournament. I have never in my life seen so many retirements on the softest surface known to mankind. Is this some kind of silent revolt?
Andrew Miller · June 26, 2013 at 4:58 pm
Can I dub this the most ridiculous Wimbledon of all time? Federer – gone. Nadal – gone. Sharapova – gone. Nadal’s opponent Darcis – gone. Tsonga, gone. Azarenka, gone. Isner – gone. First time in 36 SLAMS that Federer exits before the QF.
Sorry to be frank but this here IS the changing of the guard. The tennis gods are with the under-dogs. Roddick may wish he hadn’t retired so soon.
Scoop Malinowski · June 26, 2013 at 5:20 pm
This really could be the long delayed changing of the guard in tennis. I really think the Rosol upset of Nadal last year changed tennis. Now it seems so many of these lower ranked longshots are just firing away. It’s like Rosol has given everybody new hope and belief that “hey, I can do it too.” We saw Brands have success vs. Nadal. Darcis. And now Stakhovsky. Anything can happen now. But I think Djokovis is pretty solid and reliable now, though he did lose to the then unknown Kevin Anderson first round in Miami years ago. Nice win for Gulbis today.
Steve · June 26, 2013 at 6:06 pm
The Gulbis “win” wasn’t really nice. Tsonga retired but he’ll take it! Hopefully he can get some Ws.
Will Murray choke this tourney away? He’s never going to have a better set-up. I picked him to win this but I do fear the choke.
Andrew Miller · June 26, 2013 at 10:21 pm
Djokovic looked solid – super aggressive, finishing matches early. He looks like the champ today.
Steve · June 27, 2013 at 6:39 am
Djoker did play very well at the Boodles Exo. Though it was an Exo he swing freely like he used to. I just think Murray wants this more.
Scoop Malinowski · June 27, 2013 at 8:52 am
I didn’t see the entire match but it looked like Gulbis took control of the match in the second, getting out of trouble and it staggered Tsonga who mentally fell apart. Nobody saw any kind of injury. I think Gulbis mentally and physicall broke Tsonga’s will.