5
I see Nadal totally dominating professional tennis for five years
19 Comments · Posted by Scoop Malinowski in Articles, Scoop
He’s in his prime now, at full power. The extrardinary hunger is still there to obliterate and destroy any man that steps on a court with him. The enthusiasm and lust for the battle have never been stronger. Rafael Nadal is the world’s #1 player – and it just might stay that way for several years.
This polite and kind gentleman who uses the art of intimidation, has now won eight majors after just turning 24 years old. The man he succeeds, Roger Federer, won six majors after just reaching the age of 24. And with Juan Martin Del Potro out for New York, I rate Nadal has the heavy favorite to win the U.S. Open (#9).
Over the next five years, it’s possible that Nadal can win two or three majors a year, with Federer fading fast and Murray, Djokovic, Berdych, Soderling each apparently unable to raise or improvise their level enough to threaten the Nadal supremacy. The chief threat is the big hitter Del Potro but his wrist is now a question mark.
A lot of people wonder about the knees of Nadal but I don’t. Until I see Nadal limp or hobble, those knees look 100% healthy, or pretty darn close to it. And they sure looked as strong as ever in the first game after the medical timeout in the Petzschner match – and each and every match after that five-set victory.
After the Pete Sampras era of excellence, it was hard to imagine that a superior successor would arrive so soon after Pete won his last Wimbledon title in 2000. It seemed Pete’s record of 14 slams would last for decades, just as the man he surpassed (Roy Emerson). But then along came Federer, suddenly out of nowhere in 2003, to re-write history.
No one expected to see Federer portray the art of tennis in a superior manner than the aesthetic and explosive Sampras – but he has.
Now we have Nadal who is doing it – as hard as it was to imagine – even better than Federer. Nadal already has eight grand slam titles, three Davis Cups and an Olympic gold medal in singles. And the Spaniard’s 14-7 head-to-head mark against Federer will never be overturned by his Swiss rival – it will likely even tip much more in favor of Nadal in the coming seasons, perhaps to a figure something like 25-10.
Dearest Tennis-prose.com readers, I believe the Rafael Nadal World Domination has begun in 2010. And it very well may last for about five more years. And based on the performances we have seen from Nadal in Paris and London, we might be witness to one of the most one-sided reigns in mens’ tennis history.
The scariest scenario is that Nadal hasn’t even shown us his fully matured prime yet. The best may be still yet to come.
Photo Credit: Gail Koskorelos
No tags
Lina · July 5, 2010 at 2:52 am
Nadal peaked in 2008-2009. This is his post-peak run and he’s still dominate, but there’s no way with his knee issues that he will last five more years, especially not with the majority of the tour played on hard courts. He doesn’t need to limp to show that his knees aren’t 100%. Chronic tendinitis flares up frequently and no amount of treatment is going to help him when he is playing such high level tennis. He simply cannot keep up this level of play for an extended period of time. He overplayed in 2008 and the first half of 2009 and he suffered because of it.
He may well dominate the clay season for another couple years, but there’s no way he will ever be as dominate as Federer was in his peak. Federer won three slams a year for three straight years (2005-2007) as well as making the RG finals each year. Even in 2008, he made the finals in three of the four Slams and in 2009 he made the finals of all four slams.
Head to head is all well and good, but Nadal will never be able to enjoy that kind of dominance. People seem to forget that for the past four of five years, Nadal has dominated on clay, and that he has made the Wimbledon final four times. His prime was two years ago.
vinko · July 5, 2010 at 5:08 am
If DelPotro can get healthy he is definitely threat. He is younger than Rafa and at 6-6 he can beat the tar out of the ball. His performance in the US Open shows what he can do. This would be a great rivalry. As for Fed I don’t see him being a rival to Rafa much longer. He is pushing 30 and only a few players in the modern era-Connors, Agassi, and Sampras won a slam after 30 and they only won one or two. The odds are not with Fed although he might still land a big punch like George Foreman on a given night.
Dan Markowitz · July 5, 2010 at 10:38 am
I’m not in the “Fed is dead” camp yet. I think the US Open will provide a lot of insight into the state of Federer. But his game does seem to be tottering a great deal now. Can he battle with the big three blokes on tour as far as outright power:Soderling, Berdych and Del Potro? Can he still beat Nadal on hard courts?
Nadal looked good at Indian Wells and Miami. The matches he lost to Roddick and Ljubicic in the semis, I believe, showed that while he isn’t as effective on the hard stuff, he’s still one of the top players. It’s interesting that Nadal is now using this new Babolat string which they say allows for even more vicious spin. But he doesn’t string his racket as tightly as a Borg or Sampras, so maybe the strings won’t beat up his body as they have so many recent players. Look at all the injuries now: Federer, Del Potro, Tsonga, Gasquet and Davydenko just back. It’s like a rugby scrim.
I don’t think Nadal’s knees are as bad as everyone thinks. Come on, the guy was running like Eric Dickerson all fortnight, yes on grass, but still lumbering all over the court. I give him two slams a year for the next three years. And that would give him 14 and he’d only be 27. I think he could three slams more until age 30 for a total of a slam-breaking 17.
Tom Michael · July 5, 2010 at 12:40 pm
I am a huge Nadal fan, and believe he will be number one for a while, give how he plans his career. He obviously needs to schedule smart (like Federer consistently has), and this season he has so far. I only hope he continues to do the same for at least another 2 years, which are his final peak years. If he wins slams in abundance at age 27 and on, it will be because of his competition not stepping up–particularly young talented guys like Gulbis.
I do not want to get to far ahead of myself as a fan, talking about the next 2 or 5 years. I personally hope he wins the US Open this year because, in tennis history, no male player has won three grand slams on three different surfaces in the same season. Rafa can do that. Vamos! Let us then speak what Rafa may do after the US Open, if he wins it or not.
Richard Pagliaro · July 5, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Love the way he competes the lifts his level to – and at times – above the occasion. The match with Petzschner was a demanding one. He came through it and then looked how he deal with soderling, Murray and berdcy in succession. He got better as each match grew in importance.
He played that sloppy service game serving for the third set vs. Soderling and then i don’t remember him playing a bad service game the rest of the tournament. It’s like he locks in, has such supreme focus and the beauty of Nadal now is he has so much more variety than he did when he started so he can plot out a point – example serve slice wide to the Berdych backhand on ad side, run around backhand hammer fh into open court – or he can improvise as he did in some of those rallies vs. Murray.
The guy reads the court and the opponent and plays the score so well. He’s got to be one of the smartest tacticians I’ve seen.
He would win the Open, no question about it. Have to see how he looks at Toronto and Cincy. The guy who matches up best with him on hard court – Del Po – is out so that helps his cause and another guy who has beaten him (badly) on hard courts is Davydenko and he’s just come back from the wrist injury so this is a good time for him to do it.
Tommyboy did point out the “Amateurish scheduling decisions” in the past so perhaps Team Rafa or Uncle T took note.
Scoop Malinowski · July 5, 2010 at 3:04 pm
Lina, by the looks of the way he won the French and Wimbledon finals so easily, he might be better now than two years ago. And if he wins the US Open final in straight set, like Tom Michael says, it would be 3 slams in one year on 3 different surfaces, at age 24, this man’s prime might actually be ahead of him, not the past. A question is, who will be able to force Nadal to show his best, like he did for Federer, Pete & Andre, Borg and McEnroe did for each other?
Tom Michael · July 5, 2010 at 4:47 pm
Now that the conversation is going in the direction of the US Open, I want to say that Nadal is not necessarily the clear favorite in my book yet. He is the greatest athlete in all of tennis. However, athleticism alone does not win US Opens. It is strategy. Nadal has increased options on the court because he improved his serve and variety off both strokes over the years. To win the US Open, he needs to put it all together. My major issue with his strategy on the court is his running around the backhand on the deuce side of the court to hit a forehand. When he does this, he is literally outside of the doubles tram lines, and off the court, making him vulnerable to down the line forehand winners by righties. He lost to Youzhny in the 2006 US Open quarters because of this stupid habit. He lost a few points at Wimbledon doing this, too, but fortunately, they were not too crucial. However on hard courts, with a truer bounce, the edge Rafa has on movement is not enjoyed. Many poor movers have a chance on hard court against Rafa because they employ better strategy, and do not give up the width of the court like Rafa does.
So the simple conclusions are these. Rafa, stop running around your backhand, especially on the deuce side of the court. You can selectively run around the backhand on the ad side because it is easier to recover back to the middle once hitting a forehand on this side. Ultimately, hit enough backhands, up to 30-40% of your shots. Do not limit the % backhand hit to only 20. This is self-defeating. Use more close-stance hitting on the backhand, instead of the open-stance, particularly when the ball comes deep down the middle. This is better for true counter-punching. Rafa’s open-stance backhand (which is great when pulled wide on the court) is actually an offensive stroke, but he needs to counter-punch more in some neutral rallies on hard courts. It does not make sense to generate extra pace on the hard courts, when the surface provides so much pace on its own.
Keep serving well, with the improved variety, placement, and speed, to win cheap points, and force one-two combination putaways. Stay healthy, and move fearlessly on the court. Use slice to return first serves back in the court. Hit the ball deep.
With Rafa, I am not always sure what strategic play he uses to win on hard courts. He may regress to attacking with the forehand, but he needs to be selective with this stroke. Even though I emphasize him hitting his backhand, and it is a good stroke, it is not a great stroke. And it is because he does not vary the stances like I explained above. He needs to be aware of when to vary the stances, and even when to slice. To me Nalbandian is the master of the backhand. What is funny is that Rafa has the ability to make his backhand comparable to the great David. Because he has a comparably pretty swing, but not the best judgment and footwork on this stroke. So ultimately, it is going to come down to how he handles this side. Fortunately his will to win makes him stingy on points, but his opponent can still take advantage of bad strategy. And Rafa is a prime suspect to employ it.
Scoop Malinowski · July 5, 2010 at 5:23 pm
Tom were you at that Nadal 2006 match vs. Youzhny? I was there and at love-40, triple set point for Nadal in the third set (to go up 2-1) I was literally getting up and ready to go when out of nowhere Youzhny suddenly started smashing winners all over the court. It was like lightning striking, like Sugar Ray Leonard knockout combination of punches and it shocked Rafa who just was shellshocked. He even had a lead in the tiebreak and Youzhny again came back with some electrifying winners. I mean, it wasnt bad strategy on Rafa’s part it was just that the opponent stepped it up and made the big shots. This can happen on hard courts. I don’t think Rafa’s tactics can be called stupid at all, he is the smartest player in tennis, the most intelligent competitor the sport may have ever produced. Hard courts has been the trickiest surface for him to master but he has won a Masters Series, Olympics and Australia and rest assured he will figure out how to win in New York and will win more than one U.S. Open. If not, I will buy you a bologney sandwich and a Coke at the 2015 US Open.
Tom Michael · July 5, 2010 at 7:47 pm
Actually Scoop, I was there. Youzhny did hit outrageous winners. But those winners were mostly down the line ones. But the down the line forehand winners from Mikael should have been limited if Nadal did not hit forehands from the deuce side of the court literally standing in the doubles alleys even off the court. Nadal should have hit backhands from those locations, even if he missed them, because he ended up losing the match hitting predominantly forehands from the wrong locations. And because he avoided hitting backhands, when he decided to actually hit one, he missed a makeable one for a passing shot winner into the net at set point up (6-5) in the 3rd set tie-break.
Youzhny opened up on his shots because he saw opportunity based on the targets on the court Nadal showed him. Nadal’s poor court positioning hitting inside out forehands from the deuce side doubles allies to the righty’s forehand is not smart. The righty sees opportunity to hit that forehand down the line, once the ball was short enough, and Nadal was still literally off the court hitting that nutty forehand.
Trust me! I am not ready to crown Nadal the smartest tennis player yet. That title actually goes to Federer, Nalbandian, and Hewitt. Rafa is emotionally the smartest player, and of course, he is the greatest athlete tennis has seen. But his tennis IQ is very good, but not the best.
vinko · July 6, 2010 at 1:15 am
Rafa has lost to players at the US Open who would not have a chance anywhere else. I don’t think Youzhny, James Blake, or David Ferer has ever beaten him anyplace outside of Ashe Stadium unless they did it when Rafa was around 16 years old. Something happens to his strategy in New York because he shouldn’t be losing to those fellows on any surface. Last year he was just overpowered by Delpo but he overpowered everyone so I wouldn’t call that loss due to poor strategy.
Scoop Malinowski · July 6, 2010 at 1:40 am
Might have to watch the youtube of that match, really don’t remember it like you do. Just remember Youzhny hitting lasers. I spoke with Youzhny after and he said that was the best he’s ever played tennis in his life, the best he ever felt on court. Blake with some intangible assistance from the J-Block used to play unreal tennis in his prime, he was even hanging with Fed on that court, beat him in the Olympics too. No shame for Nadal to lose to any of those players, he is not a machine, he is human. The smartest tennis player just may be Pancho Segura. He made a great point last year, saying When have you ever seen Rafa hit the return and attack the net? Never. Pancho made the point that Rafa can still evolve his game and do new things, different things. I’d love to see him attack off the return here and there. Pancho Segura is one VERY intelligent man, trust me, and that’s a huge understatement.
dobey · July 6, 2010 at 5:46 am
The nicest thing about Rafa is that he is so humble in victory. None of that crotch grabbing that Connors did, none of that McEnroe-Lendl back and forth (mostly by McEnroe), Rafa just plays tennis. He doesn’t insult his opponents, he does do any of that gamesmanship nonsense during the match, none of that fingerwagging, Rafa just plays tennis. When a guy is too good on a given day (Tsonga in Australia, DelPotro in New York) , Rafa just says “well done” and leaves the match. I can only imagine how much better our sport’s image would be if every player had Rafa’s qualities.
But I am not sure Rafa can dominate for 5 years. When DelPotro gets back to full strength, he will be tough as nails. Rafa’s hit the ball right into DelPo’s wheelhouse and DelPo swats it back, with laser like precision. I am a Rafa fan but you have to include DelPotro in any discussion.
vinko · July 6, 2010 at 11:44 pm
Speaking of Pancho Segura, the book Little Pancho is quite good although it has several factual errors that should have been edited out. Pancho could not afford to play amateur tennis so he joined Jack Kramer’s traveling show of professionals and was banned from the Slams until he was in his 40s. Those Slams should do something to compensate the old timers who were wrongfully banned.
dobey · July 8, 2010 at 3:26 am
Just curious about what Scoop and RP think about the way DelPotro shellacked Rafa at the US Open last year. It was not a close match in the slightest. DelPotro simply overpowered Rafa. It seemed that the shots to the backhand side by Rafa just bounced up and into DelPo’s wheelhouse. Against Federer those shots seemed to hit the ground spinning and then rise rapidly and Federer was hitting from shoulder level and could not get a good meaty swing at the ball. But with DelPo, that backhand shot by Rafa was not a weapon at at all. I’m just wondering if watching those wicked shots to the righty backhand side, with the ball taking a superquick rise after hitting the ground, is just an optical illusion.
A second question is whether Nadal’s bad knees explained the DelPo match at the US Open. The other odd thing about DelPotro is that while DelPotro can handle himself quite well with Roger and Rafa, DelPo falters against Murray. Murray seems able to harness Rafa’s power and then overpower Rafa. It seems odd that Murray is the one player that DelPotro can come up with a game plan for. It’s going to be great when he get a healthy Rafa, Roger, DelPo, and Tsonga all playing in the same event.
dobey · July 8, 2010 at 3:29 am
Oops, meant to say “DelPotro seems able to harness Rafa’s power and then overpower him”. I accidentally said Murray instead of DelPotro. Sorry!
Sid Bachrach · July 8, 2010 at 11:51 am
Interesting that Nadal has dominated Murray at Wimbledon (not sure if they have met at the French Open) but at the US Open, when they played in 2008, Murray played a tactically brilliant match. Murray had a game plan and he stuck to it. Nadal won the 3rd set but Murray didn’t panic and went right back to the strategy that would win him the match. Murray is one of the few guys who can get into a baseline duel with Rafa and not really be at a disadvantage. Murray is like Borg in the sense that he can get into a baseline duel and know that he will hit one more good shot than the other guy. I agree with others on this board that it’s kind of odd that Murray can handle DelPotro where Federer and Nadal have their hands full with DelPo. One of the oddities of tennis matchups, presumably.
Tom Michael · July 8, 2010 at 1:08 pm
Look the world is going to see a different Rafa at this year’s US Open. He is resting and getting therapy on his right quadriceps. He may play Canada and/or Cincinatti. He will enter the US Open fresh for the first time in years, and with all the upgrades to his game- improved serve, flat forehand, slice backhand and returns on serve, and improved drive backhand. He is going to move great by US Open time.
Scoop Malinowski · July 9, 2010 at 3:04 am
Dobey; Sometimes on rare occasion, Nadal can get blown out, even on clay (Soderling), more often on hard court (Murray, Blake, Delpo, Youzhny). Sometimes these heavy hitters hit even heavier than normal and nothing Rafa can do. Rafa is human too sometimes at least. Delpo is a monster of a player to play when he has his A game.
I’m with Tom Michael – Rafa is going to get it right this year in NY, he is at his best now, dominating wins in Paris and London, and he will take over New York next.
Richard Pagliaro · July 9, 2010 at 7:41 pm
Dobey:
while I don’t completely discount the Del Potro pounding of Nadal in the Open semis last year (after all getting a win that sends you to your first major final is huge of course) I do believe Nadal when he said he had the strained abdominal in that match. He just looked like he could not get much work on the serve.
But I think your point about Del Potro not only not being bothered by the heavy Nadal topspin to his bh side, but actually feasting on it at times is right on target.
Del Po is 6-foot-6 so that high ball that handcuffs Federer on the one-handed bh side is not nearly as effective against the taller Del Po who has the leverage and also the two-handed backhand on that side.
I was at the Miami match last year when Del Po was down double break in the third set and came back and won. Now, neither of them played their best that day, but once Del Po started unloading he had Nadal on the defensive.
Assuming Del Po can come back healthy, I think he will continue to match up well vs. Nadal and Federer on hard courts. Let’s put it this way, if you go back to the 5th set of that US Open final last year look at the speed number’s on Del Po’s first serve. He was so confident he could beat Fed in the baseline rallies he was not even going for big serves on the first serve. At times he just spun the serve in the box knowing once the rally got going he would be in charge.
The guy is a titanic ball striker. I hope he can stay healthy because he is a scary talent who will only get better – if he stays healthy – because his serve is going to get bigger, his volley can get better, he should get physically stronger as he matures and when he can learn to change gears a bit and change up speeds he will be even more lethal.
I think part of the reason Murray has given him trouble (they’ve played some tight ones remember the US Open quarters in ’08) is because Del Po prefers pace and Murray can softball you, slice you, make you play off no pace, force you to dig out low balls, etc. Murray is good at making guys feel awkward and uncomfortable. Some players are very good at playing their game, Murray is very good and preventing you from playing your game.
with Del Po out of the picture this year, I definitely favor Nadal in NY. Obviously a lot of time between now and then and you don’t know who will be healthy, who will be hurt, who will be hot, but Nadal can certainly win it this year if he plays to the level he’s been playing.