Jun/16

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Will Djoko Surpass Federer in Slam Wins? Will The Serb Win 20 Slams?

12592745_10206883825707426_765858074746143009_nNovak Djokovic just turned 29, an age at which most players are basically through winning slams, and bagged his 12th slam title. The question now is very legitimate, will Nole win more slams than Federer, a seemingly-Joe Dimaggio like hitting in consecutive game (56 games straight that’s been in the books now without being broken for 75 years) record, since Federer has 17 now, a record he’s only held for seven years.

Three things to keep in mind when making this prediction:

1. Federer has won only one slam since he was 29 (2012 Wimbledon).

2. Nadal is stuck on 14 and doesn’t seem like he has a very good chance of making it 15.

3. There seemingly isn’t a player young or old in the next three years, the period Djokovic will either be at or near his peak to win five or more slams to either tie or break Federer’s slam record (as long as Fed doesn’t win another slam), who seems like he has the game or the will to challenge Djoko in slams.

Vince Spadea, who beat Agassi in the Rd of 16 of the 1999 Australian Open, said he thinks Djoko will win 15 slams and no more. His reasoning is that Djokovic doesn’t slam down 12 aces or more in matches and easily stride up to net and knock off volleys. Vince thinks Djoko is very similar to Nadal, they both have two big assets going for them, fitness and speed. Vince says once Nadal got hurt and his fitness and speed diminished, he wasn’t the same player. Vince thinks the same thing, even a minor injury or life obstacle, can also derail Djoko.

Vince feels there’s a way to attack Djoko’s forehand and get him to make a few more errors off it. He thinks a player like Zverev with good coaching will be able to do this in the near future. Vince does not like Thiem’s game, especially after seeing him play on grass today, where he said Thiem stood 10 feet behind the baseline. Vince said his serve is mediocre and his strokes are too long, he reminds Vince of Juan Carlos Ferrero. But he’s intrigued by Fritz and wonders what’s happened to Tiafoe of late.

Of course, it must be said that Vince believed Nadal would win only 4 slams and Federer would not get to double-digits when I wrote “Break Point” with him back in 2005. But Spadea thinks one injury to Djoko could derail the Serb’s slam-domination train and he thinks Djoko only has three years now in which he has a chance to win more slams. Still, if Djoko were to average winning two slams a year for the next 3.5 years, that would give him seven more slam titles and a total of 19. Being so close to 20, he might be able to eke out one or two more slams after age 32.

Djoko is not only chasing Federer, he’s chasing history now, too.

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76 comments

  • Moskova Moskova · June 14, 2016 at 12:35 pm

    u cannot be serious !!

    btw, down goes fritz !!

    haha

  • Andrew Miller · June 14, 2016 at 1:52 pm

    Fritz’ breakout could be coined Failure 2 Launch: The sequel to the bestseller, We Just Aren’t That Good.

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 14, 2016 at 2:07 pm

    Fritz is perfectly fine – it’s not going to be a skyrocket ride to the top five – it’s a slow gradual process with tons of potholes and flat tires and assorted highs and lows – all the great players struggled early at the ATP level – Federer said in Facing Federer to Steve Tignor that in 99 in a QA Steve did with Fed in Key Biscayne that he didn’t even know if he was gonna have a pro career – because he was stuck in a bad patch where doubts were creeping in – Steve shared that anecdote when I asked Steve for a personal Fed anecdote – great stuff -

  • Andrew Miller · June 14, 2016 at 4:06 pm

    Losing to powerhouse Yuichi Sugita. No offense to Sugita.

  • Andrew Miller · June 14, 2016 at 4:07 pm

    OWNED by Steps. Even more than Steps owns, well, Czech beauties.

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 14, 2016 at 10:21 pm

    Step won two close three setters vs Fritz – no ownership just renting space in his head – Fritz will have last laugh -

  • Harold · June 15, 2016 at 10:19 am

    Love the Scoop logic. Lose a close match to a phony top 50( Popsicle) means you are playing top 50 tennis. Maybe top 50 guy played like a 175 th ranked guy that day?

  • jg · June 15, 2016 at 10:28 am

    kyrigos needs a coach, 2 doubles in a row in his last service game?

  • Andrew Miller · June 15, 2016 at 10:37 am

    Cheap shot from me re Fritz. He’s got plenty of game. Hope Querrey gets ambitious, which then wakes up Isner.

    Unless these new kids have a big summer (there’s nothing that says they shouldn’t – usually at this point in the story – where the ATP is now a league of old fellas – these young guys get hungry and start winning bigger) we’re stuck here state-side with the hope that the current guys make up for a suck year.

    Querrey’s best positioned with a title under his belt this year. Other guys are of course Isner, Sock, maybe Fratangelo. Maybe DY steps on the gas again.

    The surprise factor comes with the young guys, whether they make the most of their opportunities, get some good practice and matches under their belt and take their chances when they have them. No matter how good they are – or how promising – they still have to perform when the moment arises. Otherwise we’re looking at first round US Open losses.

  • Hartt · June 15, 2016 at 10:38 am

    As a Raonic fan am thrilled he won the match against Kyrgios. So many people were predicting a Kyrgios win, forgetting that Milos was not 100% fit in a couple of their more recent matches.

    Getting to the next round also gives Milos some valuable match play before Wimbledon.

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 15, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    No free ranking points in the ATP Harold you know that – Popsizzle is at 43 in the world because he earned it 100% earned it – I repeat: Kozlov showing top 50 tennis at age 18 -

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 15, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    Kyrgios should hire Gilbert -

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 15, 2016 at 1:15 pm

    Andrew: Did you see Federer’s opinions of the NextGen? He said he thinks Fritz “can be a great player” and also likes Zverev – Fed also said today that Djokovic can break his record of 17 GSs – was surprised Fed said this -

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 15, 2016 at 1:17 pm

    This is a HUGE win for Raonic and his entourage – had struggled with Kyrgios in the past – Well done by Raonic as this will be a huge jolt for his confidence -

  • Andrew Miller · June 15, 2016 at 1:56 pm

    Federer is no dummy. He may turn people off with his uber confidence in his game, but there’s a reason he I still a top player as he enters his mid thirties. He knows how good djoko is and also has a clear view, best seat in the house, to evaluate tennis next next generation. To me Federer and Nadal say the same thing about unproven talent – that they are good and can-not will- be great. These guys know that a lot of things come to bear on whether a player reaches the biggest goals in the sport, and that wanting a slam isn’t the same as winning one.

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 15, 2016 at 5:49 pm

    FAR FAR FROM it Andrew – every single pro player we ever saw has/had aspirations to win GSs and be no 1 – no kid fantasized about reaching the fourth round of a GS – though reaching the 4th round of a GS is nothing to sneeze at -

  • Andrew Miller · June 15, 2016 at 9:34 pm

    4th round is great. The new QF.

  • Moskova Moskova · June 16, 2016 at 9:16 am

    wow ! down goes dimi !! lol

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 16, 2016 at 9:18 am

    Dimitrov was shattered by that loss to Schwartzman – I don’t think he’s won a match since – singles or doubles – Stick a fork in Dimitrov Dan?

  • Moskova Moskova · June 16, 2016 at 11:20 am

    too bad – dimi just couldn’t turn the corner. nice game / guy all around. and didn’t he break up with sharapova to focus on his game ? tragic ! ;) lol

  • Andrew Miller · June 16, 2016 at 1:11 pm

    Dimitrov w’ Sharpie: #16 (up from #70), including top 10.
    Dimitrov w/o Sharpie: #30s (down from #16) & sinking.

    Clearly, one of two conclusions.
    a) Sharpie works.
    b) Meldo works.

    Think it’s (a), Sharpie sharpens Dimitrov. No Sharpie, no top twenty or better.

  • Andrew Miller · June 16, 2016 at 1:13 pm

    Fork it. Dimitrov was heading for rare air. Then he declines to play the WTF ATP in 2014, says adios to Sharpie, and soon thereafter he’s eating losses for breakfast, lunch, dinner.

  • Moskova Moskova · June 16, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    “sharpie sharpens dimi”

    LMFAO….u goddamn pervert !! lol ;)

  • Andrew Miller · June 16, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    Dimitrov put up a banner 2014. Even had skeptics thinking his winning slam was a “when” not an “if” thing. He turned down the alternate spot for wtf 2014 out of pride and immediately sucks . 2015 back to dimitryin vs the 2014 dimitrophy. Now he is dimiatrophy.

    Now to me no relation between offcourt happiness and on court success. But a player does need some stability. We see it too often. Maybe sharpie got pissed with Dimitrov for not proposing or something. Sharpie was going to marry that other dude then Dimitrov drop kicks him and then they part ways. Both players suck since then and sharpie gets a two year ban.

    Anyways. Dimitrov is irrelevant these days. He’s the Bulgarian version of name any player sucking wind.

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 16, 2016 at 10:39 pm

    Isner lost another heartbreak today to Muller as he blew ten MPs – Grigor is shattered – certain losses take a LONG TIME to get oger – Mathieu to Youzhny – Coria to Gaudio – Agassi to Pete at US Open final that year – I believe Grigor is a broken player right now and he could possibly never recover – Isner is on thin ice right now too – he’s suffered a lot of tough tough losses the last year and a half – to blow ten MPs and lose is as low as it gets -

  • Bryan · June 18, 2016 at 2:54 pm

    Djokovic seems to have 3 years of cleraance before one of the young guns can take over. In the meantime it’s Murray and Wawrinka who can take away majors from him.

    Federer (Wimbledon) and Nadal (FO) on specific surfaces are viable through semis and perhaps in finals but won’t get over the hump.

    Raonic and Thiem will be the main threats to breaking the Big 5’s lock on majors over the next 3 years. After then Fritz and Zverev are taking over. Log it.

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