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Djokovic vs Nadal: 50

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Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal both have different reasons to be inspired to beat the other in today’s semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open – Djokovic is desperate to snap out of his year-long malaise and Nadal does not want to surrender an inch of territory which he has dutifully regained after a couple of subpar years.

It will be the landmark 50th clash between Nadal and Djokovic today with Djokovic leading 26-23 in their legendary FedEx ATP Head2Head series.

While Djokovic seeks to establish a rejuvenation to prove again he can win Grand Slam major titles (he hasn’t won one since Paris a year ago) by contrast, Nadal has regained his mojo and is once again looking like the “king of clay” as he collected his tenth titles at both the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell. Nadal leads the ATP World Tour with 32 match wins in 2017 and has an Open Era record 51 clay crowns.

But Djokovic has been a troublesome task for Nadal in recent years. The Super Spaniard has lost his past seven matches – and fifteen straight sets – to Djokovic since winning his ninth trophy at Roland Garros in the 2014 final. Right now Djokovic has a mental edge over Rafa. The statistics agree: Djokovic has a 16-9 record over Nadal in ATP World Tour Masters 1000 matches, three straight clay-court wins (7-14 overall) and three consecutive semi-final victories (8-8).

Right now Nadal is the clearcut favorite to win the French Open. But a Djokovic win today vs Nadal would alter everything. Thus underscoring the profound psychological importance and value of today’s match. I feel Djokovic needs it more than Nadal and the prediction is: Nadal in two tough, hard fought sets.

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77 comments

  • catherine bell · May 13, 2017 at 10:36 am

    Last time I looked Nadal was 4-0.

  • Hartt · May 13, 2017 at 11:27 am

    Rafa took the first set easily and is now up a break in the 2nd. He is playing very well but Novak was awful in the first set.

  • Grace · May 13, 2017 at 12:26 pm

    6-2, 6-4…an almost ‘vintage Rafa’ and this, mind you, is Madrid ‘clay’ (smiliar to fast hard court) and Madrid ‘ball-flying’ conditions which are far from the much more ideal ‘Rafa clay’ conditions in Rome and Paris. He won a clay slam already and, if he remains healthy, may well do the same this year with the addition of Barcelona. Neither string of wins has been achieved by any player in the Open Era (yet).
    That and a 10th Roland Garros would secure an Emperor (and not King) of Clay throne.
    The way he has managed Madrid conditions should give him and his team confidence for this year’s coming GS.
    In his interview Novak, right now, is saying Rafa is the favorite to win RG but, knowing Novak, for sure he will try and re-group.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 13, 2017 at 1:49 pm

    The ITF has announced red clay has been renamed to Rafa clay. Also Rome and Roland Garros have already declared Rafa is their 2017 champion. Each tournament shall still proceed to determine a second place finisher 🙂

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 13, 2017 at 1:52 pm

    It is mystifying how Djokovic could complete the career Grand Slam eleven months ago to now hes barely a serious contender at any major. Cant think of a more sudden downward spiral in tennis.

  • Henk · May 13, 2017 at 3:44 pm

    “Rafa Clay”, good one Scoop! He’s just playing and winning a lot of (too many?) matches and is peaking already. If he wins Madrid tomorrow and goes all the way in Rome too, hopefully, the week ‘rest’ before Paris will allow him to peak during RG too.

    Grace: the year (2010) Rafa won the ‘Clay Slam’, he (wisely) decided not to play Barcelona. This time he does seem intent on making a completely clean sweep

    Scoop, regarding downward spirals: Seems both Andy and Novak are having trouble finding their groove, literally. Rafa may take the no.2 ranking from Novak already during/afer Roland Garros. Come Wimbledon we may see Andy lose his no. 1 ranking.
    After Australia, I mentioned I wouldn’t be surprised if we’d see more Roger-Rafa finals. Not many agreed but, so far, we’ve already had one in Miami and, depending on the draws, we may see a few more.
    The year-end top rankings may well be Roger’s and Rafa’s for the taking (again!)

  • Chazz · May 13, 2017 at 4:17 pm

    Stating the obvious, but it is amazing what Nadal and Federer have done in 2017.

    Unrelated, but does anyone know why Sock/Kyrgios were unable to play their semifinal match today? I can’t find anything anywhere.

  • Hartt · May 13, 2017 at 4:30 pm

    A poster on another site said it was because of Kyrgios but he did not give a reason why Kyrgios did not play.

  • Henk · May 13, 2017 at 5:02 pm

    chazz: Kyrgios has a problem with his left hip, which was the reason for him pulling out.

  • Chazz · May 13, 2017 at 5:15 pm

    Ok, thank you. I remember he had that injury, didn’t know it was still an issue.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 13, 2017 at 5:37 pm

    Rafa could actually have his very best king of clay season this yr. Odd how the older he gets the less concern there is for overplay on clay. Maybe making mincemeat out of everyone has given the team extra confidence they can steamroll thru to the RG final. Or Rafa is in the best shape of his life. If Rafa had not bliwn that fifth set lead to Fed in Melbourne, he’d be on his way to one of the best years in ATP history. Fed must play the French Open. If he skips Paris it will overshadow the whole event.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 13, 2017 at 7:18 pm

    Kyrgios is playing doubles next week with Foginin and Sock is playing with Isner. Hmmm.

  • catherine bell · May 14, 2017 at 2:28 am

    Predicted win for Simona in Madrid.
    Now she has to move up and show what she can do in GS tournaments without coaching help and on 3 different surfaces.
    She has an opportunity to take the place seemingly vacated by Kerber whose downward slide seems miserably unstoppable.

    Mladenovic could go far in RG.

  • Dan Markowitz · May 14, 2017 at 6:48 am

    What other answer could be given as to why Djoko has gone in the tank for the last year? It has to be steroid based. You don’t beat Nadal in 15 straight sets and then go out and basically get slammed the way Novak did yesterday.

    I don’t why Novak would stop taking the steroids, but he’s clearly not the same specimen he was in the last few years. What else could explain that? Injuries–didn’t really have any significant ones; age, he’s only 29 or is he 30 now; coaching change–I’m not buying it.

    Murray isn’t playing nearly as well either, but he wasn’t winning career slams like Djoko.

  • Hartt · May 14, 2017 at 6:49 am

    I hope Simona stops throwing her racquet. She does this often and hitting the ballboy when she threw it during this last match was serious. She (and the kid) were lucky he was not injured.

  • Hartt · May 14, 2017 at 7:49 am

    Being in the Next Gen Arena in Rome did not help Escobedo. He lost his qualies match to Anderson. Will Donaldson be more fortunate? He is tied 4-4 in the first set against Mannarino.

  • catherine bell · May 14, 2017 at 8:12 am

    Hartt –

    I didn’t see the match – just the score so I missed the racquet throwing. I know she’s done that in the past but thought she’d got over it. Women don’t seem to chuck their racquets that much although I saw Angie do it in IW I think but it’s unusual for her. Not anywhere near a ballboy either.

    If Simona had hurt the ballboy I imagine she could have been defaulted.

    That’s surely a job for Cahill – stop the racquet throwing and the OCC. Simona needs a serious mental coach as well. And maybe WTA can put on some group
    therapy ?

    Dan – you don’t really believe Djokovic has been taking steroids all these years and gone undetected ?
    Perhaps Kerber’s stopped taking them as well ?
    (that last is a joke BTW – I’m not looking to get sued and I say it only to show how unlikely the idea is)

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 8:28 am

    Halep threw racquet and wins title – maybe we found the solution for her not winning big titles? 🙂

  • Hartt · May 14, 2017 at 8:36 am

    To be entirely accurate I need to make an amendment, Simona kicked her racquet, rather than threw it. She was near the side of the court, the racquet went flying and hit a ballboy who was running behind. They showed his face – he looked totally shocked.

    I wish they were much tougher about smashing balls and throwing racquets. I think it should be an immediate loss of a point, don’t wait until someone is hurt. Players are indulging in this behaviour so often now that it is just a matter of time before someone is injured.

    And Simona still throws racquets often. It is getting so I am less keen on rooting for her.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 8:48 am

    Sounds like the ballkid ran into the flying racquet? Hartt tennis is a very very joyful but also frustrating experience for driven players. Halep has endured her fair share of heartbreaks and frustrations and she is entitled to be able to vent. I can relate with a tennis player’s extreme frustration and boiling point and the need to vent 🙂 Tennis fans who don’t play can’t understand this. Even Federer Roger FEDERER was a racquet thrower. Perhaps Halep needs to practice her racquet kicks 🙂

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 8:51 am

    Djokovic dropped his team and halved his effort. We should expect garbage results – even this Masters final is better than I’d expect.

    As for Halep, a sweet win. Savor it, Simona!

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 8:58 am

    Not like we haven’t seen tumbles before. Cilic hasn’t played as he did in August 2014. Del Potro has rarely reached Delpo 2009. Sampras’ 2001-2002 season for the most part was Djokovic’ season. Agassi certainly tumbled from 1995 or so until 1999 right? Nadal hasn’t been stellar since 2015.

    We have seen other players tumble.

    Djokovic’s tumble is dramatic for sure. But to me what stands out is the weirdness. If it wasn’t him having his wife and some fruitcake named Pepe coach him then id cut some slack.

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 9:00 am

    To me Tomas Muster was the bar on clay. Then Nadal erased those records as a teenager! That’s why he’s going down as one of the best players to pick up the sport.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 9:21 am

    If Rafa can find a way to beat down the Fed backhand again he could down as THE BEST player to pick up the sport.

  • catherine bell · May 14, 2017 at 10:12 am

    Scoop –

    Sure you need to ‘vent’ but you don’t need to do it so that other people can get hurt.
    Kicking her racquet ? Come on. She’s behaving like a spoilt kid. She thinks she’s entitled, the hosannahs she gets in Roumania.

    I never saw BKJ, Martina N or Chris Evert throwing, smashing or kicking racquets and they won their fare share of titles.

    BTW I’m not a ‘fan’ and although I don’t play tennis I can certainly make a judgement on the human behaviour I see in front of me.
    Simona won Madrid last year.The surface suits her. I’ll start truly rating her, as I said, when she goes far in a GS. Otherwise, no. A wasted talent who needs a coaching prop.
    I agree with Hartt – should be instant penalties for bad behaviour. Then it might stop.

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 10:38 am

    Yes, Nadal might be. Any of the three might be, Federer, Nadal, Djokovic. Less for Djokovic because he has hired a swami or whatever.

  • Hartt · May 14, 2017 at 10:48 am

    Scoop, yes players can vent but there are other ways to do it. A big roar is quicker and does not put anyone in danger. And Roger’s racquet-throwing days were when he was still a young player. He realized he had to control his temper to be successful and he did just that.

    There is an interesting piece in tennis.com about Simoma. She said that Cahill split with her temporarily after Miami. He was upset that she gave up in her match against Konta. Halep said that made her work to be better mentally in her matches.

  • Chazz · May 14, 2017 at 11:02 am

    Scoop, going back to Sock and Kyrgios having different doubles partners in Rome, I find that very interesting too. They are a great doubles team, beat the best team of all time, then default their semifinal in Madrid and split in the next tournament? Hmm. Maybe they didnt default because of Kyrgios’ injury.

  • catherine bell · May 14, 2017 at 11:22 am

    Hartt –
    Yes – but I can’t see that happening until Simona really makes an effort to be independent and stop this OCC rubbish and maybe get some help in controlling her temper. No shame in asking for help.
    In Stuttgart she was without Cahill and said she was trying to be more professional and work things out for herself which sounded very encouraging, but come Madrid Cahill’s back and she’s leaning on him again.
    Simona dealt fine with Konta & Co in Fed Cup – she can do it on her own.
    In the end you have to.
    Somewhere along the line Angie stopped believing in herself, with the results we have seen,and I don’t think her coach can solve this for her. It’s got to come from within.

    Behaviour – never saw Borg chuck a racquet etc. He got that out of his system as a young teenager.

  • Doogie · May 14, 2017 at 11:37 am

    Francis Tiafoe just won the challenger in France on clay against Chardy in a full packet stadium in 3rd set tiebreak!!

    Very impressive this young guy as Scoop predicted 🙂

  • Chazz · May 14, 2017 at 11:57 am

    Yes Doogie, Tiafoe is the real deal. He came back from 5-2 down in the tiebreaker to beat Chardy who I’m sure was the crowd favorite in his home country.

  • catherine bell · May 14, 2017 at 1:24 pm

    Kerber is playing in Rome – seems to me she could have skipped that if the injury she had in Madrid was bad enough to force her to retire v Bouchard.
    Maybe she feels if she goes on playing it’ll all come back to her –

  • Grace · May 14, 2017 at 2:37 pm

    What a nailbiter! Rafa wins… but just. Dominic has definitely established himself as one of the few true contenders to take it to Rafa both in Rome (possibly in the QF) and then in Paris.

  • Dan Markowitz · May 14, 2017 at 3:25 pm

    Muster set the bar on clay???? Did you forget about a guy named Borg who won five french and two rome. Muster won 1 french and 3 rome, but Borg played rome only 4 times while Muster played it 12 times.

    You can’t call a guy who won 1 french the bar-setter on clay. That’s like saying Richard Kraijcek was the bar-setter on grass.

  • Hartt · May 14, 2017 at 3:30 pm

    The Nadal vs Thiem match was very entertaining. A close first set and Thiem kept fighting in the 2nd. Am really looking forward to watching him the rest of the season. And he gave a delightful runner-up speech, very engaging.

  • Hartt · May 14, 2017 at 3:33 pm

    A lot of top players don’t smash their racquets. In his autobiography Rafa talked about how when he was a kid Uncle Toni did not allow that kind of behaviour, saying that racquets were expensive and he needed to respect his equipment. I have never seen Rafa throw or smash a racquet.

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 4:27 pm

    Madrid winner can win French Open. It’s a wide open year, Simona has a shot. Kerber has a shot. Konta has a shot. Mladenovic I think can make it interesting. It will either be best semifinals at a French in a while or the worst!

  • catherine bell · May 14, 2017 at 5:11 pm

    Angelique has no shot at RG. She’s never done anything there. And not this year for heaven’s sake…

    Simona ? She’ll flashback to 2014 – and no OCC 🙂

    You’re missing Sharapova – shame !

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 5:13 pm

    Confidence matters more than surface. Winning reinforces that I want to do this again feeling. Simona hasn’t had it for a while where she is last one standing. Nadal hadn’t either until a few weeks ago.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 10:15 pm

    Agree Catherine but Halep surely did not intend to have the ballkid run into her kicked racquet – things to happen in tennis when anger erupts – We all know Halep is a super nice person and this was a fluke incident – venting out frustration is an important skill for a player to master –

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 10:21 pm

    The swami has instructed Djokovic to now yell not “Come on!” or “Idemo” after big points but “Peace and Love!!”

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 10:23 pm

    Hartt; Self control is very very hard in tennis and it’s always challenged – You should start playing and entering tournaments and then you will understand how rewarding and thrilling tennis can be to win but also disastrously aggravating when you lose or choke 🙂

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 10:24 pm

    Chazz; very strange indeed – will keep an eye on their friendship because this sounds like something happened between them to suddenly break up and a suspect pullout – Sock’s friendship with Pospisil crashed soon after Sock clobbered Pop in singles last year –

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 10:26 pm

    Tiafoe is ready to beat a top eight seed in Rome or Roland Garros – the kid is ready to shock the world – remember where you heard it first –

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 10:28 pm

    I actually did see Rafa toss a racquet in frustration during a practice with F Lopez the week before the US Open on Ashe and I was the only person watching – fans can’t get into Ashe during qualis week and no press were there yet – He did not throw it but he did gently drop it to the ground around the service line – this was about eight years ago –

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 14, 2017 at 10:31 pm

    Halep looked really good in Key Biscayne and the huge comeback win vs Stosur could have been the key turning point – she lost to Konta there but Konta won the title – avenging Konta in Fed Cup was a big win and now Halep is arguably the hottest player on the WTA Tour –

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 11:23 pm

    Muster had the clay streak, Dan. He wasn’t Borg and I never saw Borg play outside his comeback highlights, which doubled as the remix of his twilight.

    Borg is a hall of famer, but for me I watched a lot of Muster and his dominance on the red stuff. So when Nadal arrived on the scene and within a year and a half had the clay record for a win streak as a teenager, that’s obscenely outstanding.

    Said it before and will say it again: Like Agassi said Nadal is a freak. So is Federer, so is Djokovic. Their win streaks are unbelievable to the point we’ve come to expect their dominance forever, Tom Brady style. But it’s still unreal to have the records they do. Unheard of.

  • Andrew Miller · May 14, 2017 at 11:24 pm

    Also saw Chesnokov and Cherkasov and a lot of Thierry Champion, but few know those guys.

  • Todd · May 15, 2017 at 12:11 am

    Scoop – regarding having not seen such a sudden decline like Djoker’s since last year’s French….look at Wilander’s career post 1988 US Open title. Won only 1 other ATP title in his career, I think.

  • catherine bell · May 15, 2017 at 3:11 am

    Scoop –
    As I’ve said, we’ll find out about Simona in GS tournaments. They’re the ones that matter.

    She lost to Siegemund in Stuttgart, straight sets, no Cahill there of course, so I wouldn’t call her the ‘hottest player’ just yet. Laura’s a good player but Simona should have beaten her.

    I’m sure she’s a nice person but Simona does seem a little immature at times – she’ll grow out of that but the big titles may come later in her career.

    Todd – I saw Wilander play quite a bit and I always had the feeling he was not obsessively attached to the game. There were other things in his life. 1988 was his peak and beyond that he just didn’t seem to have the motivation.

    Kerber’s decline has been precipitate but it’s only been after one good year. So perhaps at this stage, at 29,she just can’t summon up the mental energy and concentration.
    Djokovic’s life has changed quite a bit from the years he was playing as a single man. His concentration may be dispersed a little too. That happens, if not immediately.

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