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Jan/20

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Coco vs Osaka AO Analysis

The most intriguing match at the Australian Open third round will be Naomi Osaka vs Coco Gauff showdown rematch.

The two Florida-based prodigies have played once before – at US Open last summer – with the older Osaka prevailing 63 60.

There are many interesting angles about this match up.

The two are dear friends and almost like sisters, off the court at least. Everybody remembers Osaka approaching Gauff at her chair on Ashe after their match, consoling and inviting her little sister to accompany her at the post match interview on court. Gauff surely was touched by the kind-hearted gesture by Osaka.

But business is business and there are no friends on the court.

So it will be interesting to see if Coco plays today against Osaka with the same fist pumping, in your face staredowns, CMON roaring intensity that she employed in her first two wins in Melbourne against Venus and Cirstea.

Or will Gauff subdue her emotional adrenaline and antagonistic aggressions to her big sister? And if she does, how will that impact her performance?

More likely, Gauff’s fierce competitive nature and vicious will to win will take over and she may fist pump and yell at Osaka straight to her face. If that happens, how will Osaka respond?

Coco being passive will not be enough to slay Osaka. It was not enough to slay Cirstea. Coco won the match vs Cirstea because she summoned her beast mode, emotional adrenaline power source. She will need that and even more vs Osaka, the AO defending champion.

The big question is, will Gauff show that aggressive, confrontational, antagonistic demeanor to Osaka or will she supress her greatest weapon?

And if things do get heated and Coco does go all out beast mode vs Osaka, as she did vs Cirstea, how will the quirky Japanese woman handle such a complicated situation?

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217 comments

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 12:20 pm

    Our training in US stinks too, knowledge of game, etc. Otherwise Keys, with her laser like groundies, would have three slams 🙂

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 12:28 pm

    P.S. five US guys in round of 32 is excellent. US men as recently as 2013 had one player only in round three. How’s Spain’s next gen doing? Oh wait a second…

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 1:13 pm

    Rublev, Kyrgios nice wins. Thiem alive. Rublev knocking off Goffin a change of guard. Kyrgios surviving is a big deal for a country hurting from the epic wildfires. Thiem surviving shows he’s serious about making it further on hardcourts rather than being a one season kind of player (he’s not, but this is a good statement).

    Expected Khachanov to fall but he put up a huge fight. Huge. Excellent effort. Rublev really surprised me.

    Wawrinka still alive and Isner win a gift, didn’t have to work hard.

  • Hartt · January 25, 2020 at 1:32 pm

    Andrew, don’t you think a variety of coaches would have tried to get Keys to change her approach, but she would not, or could not, do that?

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 2:15 pm

    Jon, how do you know there are not a few or many match fixers in the top 50? How do you know the only match fixers are the players who are barely scraping by? Is this what the media propoganda told you? How do you know it’s not the barely scraping byers who only get caught?

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    Jeff, I disagree. Tennis always attracts good athletes, it’s no different now than when Pete and Andre and Jimmy and Mac played. The difference now is the coaching and work ethic. It’s not that the best athletes are opting for other sports than tennis. That’s a myth.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 2:29 pm

    Keys has got to be the most frustrating talent in the sport. She’s so good, so powerful but she plays so one dimensionally dumb tennis. If she only added a defensive finesse dimension to her game. But she just keeps playing pound it harder thoughtless tennis.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 2:30 pm

    Andrew, Spain system has not produced anthing since Nadal really. Carreno Busta and Agut are basically Isner and Johnson. Russia and Australia are the top tennis developers right now with USA.

  • Hartt · January 25, 2020 at 3:03 pm

    Scoop, I think you are right about Keys being so frustrating. I was excited about her when she was a young player with so much talent, but gave up on her years ago. She turns 25 next month so it’s not as though she is a youngster still learning her craft. It does not help her, though, when the American commentators talk as if she will win a Slam any day now.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    Harrt, watching keys is like watching the same movie every night. Same ending every time. She’s not stupid by any stretch. But she employs stubbornly stupid tactics. Maybe they all will go in one major and she will enjoy the last laugh. She deserves it.

  • Hartt · January 25, 2020 at 3:41 pm

    Scoop, if Keys had learned to actually play tennis, instead of just bashing the ball most of the time, she could be in contention for Slams, with her natural power. But, frankly, I prefer it if the ball bashers don’t win Slams. I want to see players who have variety, all-court games, and mental toughness get rewarded with big titles.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 3:52 pm

    Was told Muster was discarded by Thiem and not in the box for the Fritz match.

  • Hartt · January 25, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    Yes, there were several reports about Muster no longer being on team Thiem. If the relationship wasn’t working it makes sense to cut ties, but the timing, right in the middle of a Slam, seems strange.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 4:19 pm

    The guess would have to be Muster was getting out of his lane and had to be booted. The player rules, the player calls the shots. The coach is basically a slave for the player. Easy to see Muster not being suited to serve a subservient role as co coach with Massu. Did anyone read this feature on Gulbis? Very enjoyable read on one of the most interesting character in pro tennis. https://ausopen.com/articles/features/i-these-emotions-gulbis-learning-love-ride

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 4:35 pm

    Not up to me who wins slams and what works for them 🙂 I’m afraid that Scoop’s argument and emphasis on brazen self belief and focus seems like a winner. What good is the world’s most fabulous game without the raw, elemental desire to do something special out there, and the persistence to back that desire up and compete?

    Not much. I thought Osaka would level young Gauff. Total underestimation of one player’s desire and an overestimation of another player’s ability to ice that. I got everything wrong about it.

    I was also wrong on Zverev, who had no problem with Verdasco. On Rublev, who I thought met his match in Goffin.

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 4:38 pm

    Something happens to the guys. Scoop once said he spotted a champion in Ryan Harrison and I think at the time that was actually warranted. Something got in the way of that elemental desire Harrison to be a world class player and one for the ages. I’d guess some mistakes in judgment. Maybe stubbornness. Something.

  • Hartt · January 25, 2020 at 4:57 pm

    Bianca watch. Micheal Downey, CEO of Tennis Canada, was asked during a radio interview yesterday when Bianca would be back. He said there is a possibility she will be at Fed Cup. Canada will face the Swiss team in Switzerland Feb 7-8, so it would be great if Bianca could take part. If Belinda Bencic plays for Switzerland they will be tough to beat.

  • Michael In the UK · January 25, 2020 at 5:34 pm

    WOW.
    I watched set 4 and 5 of Khachanov v Nick K.
    Superb tennis. Can we agree on that?
    I hope Nick K can bring his best shots and finally this new maturity, to his match against Rafa.

  • Hartt · January 25, 2020 at 5:51 pm

    I watched the 2 sets I’d missed because of falling asleep, and then watched the last set again. Yes, super tennis from both players, very entertaining. It was a shame that one of them had to lose, but kudos to Nick, who dug deep and pulled off the win.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 5:52 pm

    I think Zverev might be ready to smash people’s perceptions of him. The long await Zverev breakout may be here.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 5:53 pm

    It does not matter what any expert or pundit believes, all that matters is what the individual person or player believes. Truly believes.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 5:54 pm

    Fifth set of Khachanov vs Nick was something very special. Every point was a dog fight and every point seemed to be decided by a winner. Tennis at it’s best. Nick is ready to shock the world. I think he learned something about himself last night.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 6:50 pm

    I see a massive change in Kyrgios, he’s staying positive and grinding now, playing defense too. Also he’s staying focused and positive, with a little fake venting at his box. But then quickly back to business. Kyrgios is going all in for this title. He’s a man possessed, he’s matured and he is giving it everything he has. Beating Khachanov the way he did, after blowing two set lead and being in position to choke the deathbreaker could be the turning point in his career. I like his chances vs Rafa. Rafa does not enjoy playing Nick. If he gets by Rafa, watch out. The tennis world has waited years to see Nick play the way he is playing now. This is as good as it gets. Nick is Muhammad Ali, Marcelo RIos, Mike Tyson, Dennis Rodman, Goran Ivanisevic all rolled into one.

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 8:04 pm

    Pundits make good calls, too. Better than I am. Tracy Austin, for one, called the Andreescu victory.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2020 at 8:28 pm

    Yes they do and there are many excellent pundits and experts in tennis. But some players defy logic and are unreadable. Unpredictable. Rios, Schwartzman, muster, Capriati, kyrgios, Albot, Dzumhur, arazi, cibulkova, pennetta, Paes, Medvedev, schiavone, to name a few.

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 11:43 pm

    This tiebreak is pure nervousness between Kenin and Gauff. Nerves of jello! Can feel the jitters. Kenin double faulted twice, for no reason. Gauff almost couldn’t serve the final point of the set, so nervous up 6-5.

    The Gauff forehand…not a good shot. Good thing her serve is huge! Allows her to draw a short ball (fairly often) and gives set up time. Kenin and anyone really should work on a serve into the body, take that away.

    Otherwise both played with a lot of poise, and Gauff played some courageous ball in the tiebreak, but Kenin seemed to be twice as nervous, and it didn’t do her any favors.

    So good job Gauff, and good job Kenin, let’s see if you two can put together a less nervous second set!

  • Andrew Miller · January 25, 2020 at 11:55 pm

    Uh oh, these ladies getting tired out there! Interesting Kenin keeps going for the T on the first serve to the ad court. I’d go right into the body.

    Much like her fine serve, Gauff has a nice overhead. That has helped her out. Her serve is tough.

    Once again though, no one able to exploit the forehand. It’s true what Jon King said, Coco Gauff forehand is a messy shot. I know some said well the Nadal forehand…the Nadal forehand has ALWAYS been a very good shot. Gauff is winning this match with any shot but her baseline forehand.

    Thankfully the rest of her game has a lot to it. But it’s true, if a player spends some time designing a strategy to draw the forehand error from Gauff they should be able to win these matches with some margin for error.

    Someone who could step in and take some prep time away from young Gauff should also be able to dictate the match more.

    Gauff’s five star competitiveness is what really keeps her above her competition so far.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 12:04 am

    Kenin has to step in on the Gauff serve – and not guess so much. Gauff likes that serve out wide off the second serve – she hits the first serve as if it’s a second serve and then the second serve like a first serve.

    Every second serve is going out wide. If Kenin wants to stay in this match she has to read that the first serve is either to you or down the T, and the second serve is always out wide.

    And work the forehand.

    Kenin did a fine job here in the fifth game of the second set after breaking (why Gauff isn’t trying to break back? Still thinking of that break…) to slice a few balls to the Gauff forehand. Gauff looking just a little more tired and flat after the emotional first set win. My guess is Gauff is holding out for the third set. She hardly got to a ball in the 5th game of the second set, allowing Kenin to hold for 4-1.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 12:13 am

    Gauff pulls up a little on her serve. Man, it really is the Gauff grit that keeps her going. It makes up a lot for the technical issues in her game. She is world class competitor, and significant flaws in the forehand and some areas of her game.

    For fifteen, and any age, a wonderful player. It’s hard for me to tell if Kenin has picked up on the pressure points to put together a strategy for the rest of the match. My guess is it doesn’t matter because Gauff LOVES the thrill of something huge on the line. Kenin will need as much strategy as possible to draw out the errors, because Gauff likes the stage and the fight.

    How much does Kenin?

  • Hartt · January 26, 2020 at 12:33 am

    Milos defeated Cilic in SS. He served great, even by Milos’s lofty standards.

    Christopher Clarey put it well:

    “Milos Raonic into the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open without dropping a set in a draw that has included Tsitsipas and Cilic.

    Raonic has paid his dues (and then some) with injuries

    Well-deserved success.”

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 12:35 am

    Whoever taught Kenin to keep her head down on her groundstrokes is a hero.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 12:45 am

    Raonic pulled out that third set in style! Caught the highlights. Masterful work. Really snuffed out any chance for a Cilic comeback. The Raonic everyone knew was there.

  • Jeff · January 26, 2020 at 12:50 am

    Scoop, best athletes? Are you comparing Tyler Fritz with a top NBA player or NFL receiver? John McEnroe compared to those guys? Like Jon said, if those guys played tennis, the U.S. would dominate.

    I do agree that Zverev has turned it around and looks legit. This could be his time to shine.

  • Jon King · January 26, 2020 at 12:57 am

    Kenin is a Rick Macci trained player. When she was young he put in perfect technique.

    Gauff is a much better athlete but will need a technical coach to reach her potential. Forehand grip has got to come back a bit towards semi western for starters.

  • Hartt · January 26, 2020 at 1:01 am

    Milos played so well, with a 73% first serve %, and 35 aces in 3 sets. That is twice his normal number of aces. He had 55 winners to UFEs. Even taking out the aces from winners, that is still a good stat for an aggressive player.

    Of course Novak will be super tough. Novak has a 9-0 h2h vs Milos, but if Milos continues to serve like that he has a shot.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 1:01 am

    Kenin, ice in veins, closes this out. She nearly burst into tears on putting the 6-0 in the third set on the hungry Gauff, whose errors kept mounting as Kenin honed in on a few things. Great tournament for Gauff, and some heady stuff from Kenin in digging in until the end.

  • Jon King · January 26, 2020 at 1:07 am

    I love the dynamic between Kenin and her dad. It was always just the 2 of them at Macci’s when she was 5 years old. Still just the 2 of them riding in the golf cart to the stadium, and just dad sitting alone in the box.

    No entourage, no custom T shirts, no fancy Patrick M….just tennis dad and daughter vs the world.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 1:08 am

    The Kenin ability to pick a few things and hammer them, very fine work. The young lady is a thinker out there. Also right to recognize Gauff wasn’t handling the moment well, becoming more nervous with the errors. So, top shelf thinking.

    Young Gauff will get better and better. She needs to fix that forehand. To me: semi-western only, agree with Jon King. That has been the standard for decades, and the Gauff grip limits everything on the forehand, gets her into trouble. She threw a lot of spinning shots up landing short, Kenin kept her head down and connected on nearly every one of them.

    Jon King was right on this one, Kenin was definitely the worst kind of opponent for Gauff, and tennis is a game of match-ups. It was nice to see this contrast of styles and hopefully they’ll meet again soon.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 1:09 am

    Kenin’s dad seems cool! These seem like two nice tennis families. For all the horror stories out there, Mr. Kenin and Mr. Gauff seem like good folks.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 1:15 am

    Jabeur – Kenin next round. Should be fun. Jabeur is a joy to watch, does so much with the ball, Kenin will have to hit through all of that.

  • Jon King · January 26, 2020 at 1:22 am

    Yes, Kenin and Jabeur will be a very interesting match.

  • Andrew Miller · January 26, 2020 at 1:30 am

    Fognini is insane. Does such good stuff. And such a head case. Brilliant player, total head case. If Sandgren can keep up with him and his antics…

  • catherine · January 26, 2020 at 1:44 am

    Kenin showed Gauff for what she is – a precociously good 15 year old who has some growing up to do, on and off the court.

    That was a great result for Kenin – to finish the match in such a decisive way when the pressure from inside and out must have been huge. Coco is a great competitor but the technical problems, which others here have discussed more expertly than I can, may stall her as her opponents get working on them.

    I’m glad Cocomania is over. The title is anyone’s.

  • catherine · January 26, 2020 at 1:54 am

    Well – not anyone’s but wider open. Barty/Riske could be interesting. Don’t think Ashleigh’s been in top form so far – she and Julia lost in the doubles first round which surprised me.

    Jon – the fewer people in the box the better the result on court 🙂

  • catherine · January 26, 2020 at 2:02 am

    Hartt – Not too happy with Bianca news. Seem iffy to me. By the time she gets back on court it’s going to be nearly 6 months since she’s played tournaments. Time waits for no man,tennis players included.

    Her team should have said – this is a serious injury and Bianca is taking x months off. That would have been better than all this flip-flopping which can only be bad for her mentally.

  • Jon King · January 26, 2020 at 2:07 am

    catherine, I think maybe Momma Gauff needs to take charge and chill things out a bit. Dad and Patrick M. are certainly not going to back off the hype.

    Really need to back off a bit, no more boxing videos with Mike Tyson, matching Call Me Co Co shirts, Patrick M. and his academy team in the box, sponsors in the box.

    Its starting to look like a prize fighter with a tacky entourage instead of a close inner circle of people with her best interests in mind.

    Get a technical coach to work on her forehand, do some leg strength training….but most of all, do not encourage the hype stuff, let her pay her dues, get better, take her time. Trying to be the youngest to do this and that is not a recipe for long term success.

  • catherine · January 26, 2020 at 5:03 am

    Barty wins in 3 with a 1-6 blip in the middle.

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2020 at 8:13 am

    It’s not about best athletes, it’s about mentally toughest athlete. Tennis is the most challenging mental sport. It scares many away like drew brees.

  • Hartt · January 26, 2020 at 9:13 am

    Fed was far from perfect, but he got the win against Fucsovics in 4 sets. He did not need another 5 set marathon. Roger was moving well, and that is always good to see.

    I know this is one of the toughest tasks in tennis, but I am hoping Milos can finally defeat Novak, who leads their h2h 9-0. Milos needs to have both his serve and groundies working to have any chance at all. Go Milos!

  • Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2020 at 10:28 am

    Kenin proved Jon King right for a change 🙂 Kenin as we know is a gladiator and as tough as they come. She will not roll over for anyone. Soon she will be the no. 1 ranked American, she is 2 now. All the pressure was on Kenin and she rose to the occasion. Gauff’s upside is scary though. Imagine what she will be doing at age 20 when she is more accustomed to the pro tour and how it all works. The contrast of the two boxes, just Kenin’s father and all the hanger ons with Gauff is alarming. Gauff does not need all those hanger ons and caddies and gophers and freeloaders looking for face time. They are all potential distractions.

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