By Todd Robinson
So an obvious and easy way to preview the Miami Masters hardcourt event is to briefly recap what just transpired on the Indian Wells hardcourts, so we’ll start with a few of the bigger storylines to come out of the Southern California desert.
1) The Amazing Alcaraz – I was watching his QF matchup vs Felix Auger-Aliassime while on a 3-person text thread with my doubles buddies. We were all astounded by his performance and ridiculous shots/gets/athleticism/speed, texting our descriptions and superlatives, when I finally messaged “It’s like playing against Superman.” Short and sweet, I still can’t think of a better way to describe him. His final 3 matches to take the title were against a murderer’s row of talented players – Felix, Sinner, then Medvedev. The off-the-charts athleticism is one thing, but to then have the skill set he has at 19, combined with the instinctively sharp tennis mind to play the right shots and strategy so often…it’s utterly absurd and probably unprecedented. None of the Big 3 were close to as well-rounded still over a month shy of their 20th birthdays (especially Fed), and while Borg was likely the most prodigious tennis talent in history – winning 104 matches before his 18th birthday & the French Open 10 days after it – his game was not nearly as well-rounded as Alcaraz’ so young. It will be quite interesting to see his French and Wimby results this year – how dominant will he be, can he be, on clay and grass?
2) Medvedev is Back – The Russian extended his 14-match win streak to 19 by making the final, despite tweaking his ankle rather significantly in his R16 matchup vs. Zverev. Last year he went 0-7 vs Top 10 talent after the Aussie Open (0-8 including the loss to Nadal in the final there), and while he didn’t face any Top 10 players until the final at IW, he did beat an improving Zverev (Top 5 talent when healthy) and a much-improved Frances Tiafoe in the SFs. He went from complaining about the extremely slow surface during the early rounds to just buckling down and executing his ‘chase everything down’ game plan (alongside big serves) during the rest of the tourney. He did not play his best in the final – way more unforced errors than usual – but overall, as he stated himself, he was quite happy with his play and result here. Also, he might be just #5 in the rankings currently, but he is #1 in interviews and press conferences. His refreshingly honest, well thought out and often unique, insightful responses to questions, devoid of cliches, is a breath of fresh air (see…I am NOT devoid of cliches!) for reporters, media, and fans everywhere.
3) Strugglers Still Struggling – In my I.W. preview, I noted the 2023 records of the Top 25 seeds and how a few of them were struggling to play to their rankings so far this year. For the most part, Indian Wells did not cure them of their ills. In order of rankings, here’s how they did: #4 Ruud – went 1-1, losing to #97 (at the time) Christian Garin. While the Chilean is a former Top 20 player who’s still only 26 yrs old, these are matches Ruud was winning last year. #20 Coric – lost immediately to #63 Alex Molcan. His best win by ranking this year is over the fading #28 Dan Evans, who had to retire from the match at 2-2 in the 1st Rd at Dubai. #21 Musetti – now 5-6 on the year after losing immediately to #68 Adrian Mannarino, a 34 yr old Frenchman who hasn’t been in the Top 30 since 2018. #23 Mateo Berrettini – lost immediately to #103 Taro Daniel, a career journeyman who does enjoy IW – he did beat Djoker here in 2017 when Novak was struggling with injury and bad coaching experiments – remember Pepe Imaz?. The Italian Berrettini then went to Phoenix to play a Challenger event, losing in the QFs to #132 Alexander Shevchenko (gotta be the biggest win of his career!). #30 Denis Shapovalov – lost immediately to #77 Ugo Humbert in straight sets, dropping under .500 on the year (5-6) in the process.
4) USA Top Stars Rock Solid – Defending champ Taylor Fritz bowed out in the QFs, but not before pushing the extremely talented Jannik Sinner to 6-4 in the 3rd set (Sinner was the oddsmakers slight favorite in the match). But since he was the defending champ, his ranking did fall from #5 to #10. I do think #5 is pretty much the max for Fritz, as his movement and overall athleticism will likely prevent him from going any higher. I don’t see him as a future slam champ. #14 Frances Tiafoe took advantage of a good draw to make the SFs before bowing out to Med. The rankings of his first 3 opponents was #73, #75, #187. He did beat #12 Cam Norrie in the QFs. He seems much improved in 2023, playing smarter, more patient tennis to go along with his top notch athleticism and power – he’s now 14-4 on the year. Finally, #19 Tommy Paul (#32 on 1/1/23) lost to Felix in the R16 after beating #11 Hurkacz in the 3rd. It was brutal loss for the rising American, as he had 3 match points on Felix’ serve at 4-5, 0-40 in the 3rd set, and then 3 more at 3-6 in the tiebreaker. Felix’ serve and big hitting on the pressure points were the difference in the match. Tommy definitely needs to transform his serve into a bigger weapon, but the rest of his game is quite strong.
5) Alexander Zverev…Getting There? – AZ posted solid wins over #66 Pedro Cachin and #59 Emil Ruusuvuori before losing a tough extended battle with Med in the R16, 6-7, 7-6, 7-5. The match against the Russian was probably his most impressive this year, and should give him confidence going into Miami and then the big clay season after that. But his 2nd serve issues did appear a bit in the Med loss, and he’s going to have to keep that demon at bay to threaten the Top 5 again.
6) Pleasant Surprises – In order of rankings, here’s 5 guys who went farther than most thought they would: #25 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – 25th is a career-best ranking for the 23 yr old Spaniard as he found his way to the QFs after beating Khachanov in the 3rd Rd, 6-4 in the 3rd set. He eventually succumbed to Med in straight sets. #74 Martin Fucsovics – Was at #84 before his IW run to the R16 where Fritz took him out. A former Top 35 player, Fucsovics is a big strong 31 yr old who took out #44 JJ Wolf and #18 de Minaur before bowing out to Taylor. #82 Christian Garin – as mentioned above, he took down Ruud in the 3rd Rd, but before that he defeated #29 seed Yoshihito Nishioka in the 2nd. At 26 yrs old, the clay court specialist should get back to the Top 50 and possibly back to the Top 30. Davidovich-Fokina took him out in the R16. #87 Stan Wawrinka – Waw was #100 coming into the desert, with only one Top 40 win on the year – over #37 Bublik in his first tourney of the season. But the 3X slam champ and future Hall-of-Famer found some of his old magic at I.W., beating #31 Kecmanovic in the 2nd Rd and then #11 Holger Rune in the 3rd (some nice controversy at the end of that one – YouTube ‘Wawrinka-Rune IW Handshake’ if you missed it). #162 Alejandro Tabilo – the 25 yr old Chilean was #187 when he entered the qualies at I.W. He beat #86 Christopher O’Connell in the first round of qualies, ATP #227 in the 2nd to get into the main draw, and then took down #156 Maximillian Marterer, #37 Maxime Cressy (former UCLA star who plays mostly serve/volley throwback tennis), and then #87 Jordan Thompson before Tiafoe showed him the exit door, 6-4, 6-4 in the R16. Tabilo did reach #64 last summer (went 17-16 in 2022), but his 3 main draw wins in the desert are his only ATP wins of 2023 so far.
7) Nadal Top 10 Streak Ends – The absence of a Big 3 member made some of the biggest news in the desert. Nadal was Runner-up last year, so with those points dropping off for him, he is now ranked #13 – the first time he’s been outside the Top 10 since April of 2005. His streak of 912 weeks inside the Top 10 is the longest in history by far – Jimmy Connors’ 788 from 1973-88 a distant second (Fed’s 734 is 3rd…2002-16). Below are Nadal’s year-end rankings and slam count since he first cracked the Top 10 in 2005 (22 slams/8 R-Ups)…a different Top 10 streak that could stay alive with better health and good results during the remainder of 2023:
So the above IW recap gives a good ‘lay of the land’ on the ATP Tour going into Miami. Below we’ll delve deeper into previewing the 2nd leg of the ‘Sunshine Double’, but first, a quick note on who’s out:Djokovic – not allowed…Nadal – injury, but recovering and slated to play Monte Carlo (mid April) at this point…Kyrgios – injury…Jack Draper – made R16 at IW, but injured a stomach muscle…Seb Korda – wrist injury, but slated to play Estoril in early April…Pablo Carreno Busta – muscle injury, also withdrew last minute from IW…Marin Cilic – sidelined since a knee injury during an Aussie Open tuneup; 34 yr old vet has played only 1 match all year.
Interesting question – Is Cilic a Hall of Famer? Here’s the numbers: 1 slam title, 2 slam R-ups, 1 Masters title, 0 Masters R-ups (4 Masters SF losses). He made 14 slam QFs, and 6 slam SFs (most recently – 2022 French), including at least 1 SF at all 4 slams. Made 36 ATP finals, taking the title 20 times. He’s also notched at least 30 match wins at every slam, posting a 138-56 slam match record – more wins than Roddick & Courier, but less than fellow Big 3 Era compatriots Wawrinka (151), Berdych (146), & Ferrer (145). His record vs the Big 3 is/was a big dud…5-36 [1-10 vs Fed, 2-7 vs Rafa, and 2-19 vs Djoker]. This year both Carlos Moya (1 slam, 1 slam R-up) and Juan Carlos Ferrero (1 slam, 2 slam R-ups), guys with similar careers, were on the ballot but failed to get in…but…special consideration needs to be made for the Big 3 Era that Cilic had to play in. Those guys and Murray swallowed up so many slam final spots and Masters final spots, there just wasn’t much left over for the 2nd Tier guys. And one of Cilic’s 5 wins over the Big 3 was a monster victory – destroying Fed in the 2014 USO SFs to make his first slam final, where he then took down an exhausted Kei Nishikori. I say he’s in, but not on the first ballot.
Back to Miami, there were a couple interesting developments in the qualies. First, there’s a 17 yr old Irvine, CA kid named Learner Tien who graduated high school early and will be playing for USC this Spring, but entered the qualies at both IW and Miami. At IW, the aforementioned Christian Garin took him out in two tight sets, 7-5, 7-6(7)…and at Miami this week, former ATP Top 30 pro Jan Lennard Struff – still only 32 and currently ranked #103 – took him out in Rd 1, 6-4 in the 3rd set after losing the first set 6-3. Watch out for this kid going forward. In Rd 2 of the qualies, Garin took out Tabilo (162nd ranked Chilean mentioned above) 7-5, 6-1, while fading French vet Benoit Paire, ranked as high as #18 in 2016 but currently #170 at 33 yrs old, shocked Thanasi Kokkinakis 7-5 in the 3rd set to make the main draw. This will be his 1st ATP match of 2023 after playing 8 Challenger events and failing to qualify at 2 other ATP tourneys this year. FYI – Kokkinakis still made the main draw as a lucky loser.
As far as the main draw goes, not much to get excited about in Rd 1. Dominic Thiem, currently at #106 in the rankings, plays #59 Lorenzo Sonego, who was at a career-best #21 just 17 months ago in October 2021. Thiem has not found any sort of continued success since being bitten by the injury bug shortly after taking his only slam title at the US Open in 2020. He went 9-9 in 2021, 18-16 last year, and is just 1-7 so far in 2023. In Rd 2, Izzy (John Isner) vs Fritz is interesting, though the youngster should spank the almost 38 yr old giant. Also, Fucsovics will look to continue his success in the states against the ‘full of attitude’ teenage sensation Holger Rune, assuming he handles Cachin in Rd 1. Another young American inside the Top 50, 45th ranked 21 yr old Brandon Nakashima, has an interesting potential matchup vs. Davidovich Fokina, mentioned above coming off his QF run in Southern California. Hopefully B-Nak handles Oscar Otte in Rd 1 to make that happen. The last potentially enticing Rd 2 matchup would be Andy Murray, who showed in IW that he still has some gas in the tank (won 2 matches before Draper took him out), playing against serve/volley specialist Maxime Cressy. Cressy is the 30 seed and so has a bye, while Murray’s hurdle to reaching Rd 2 is solid Serbian vet Dusan Lajovic, a former Top 25 (2019) grinder who doesn’t really possess enough weapons to hurt Murray, even at this late stage of Murray’s career.
Looking out further in the draw to later matches and bigger names, Alcaraz / T Paul could be a fun R16 matchup….Shapo has struggled mightily in 2023, but he’s generally shined in the spotlight in his young career, and if he can just win 1 match here, he’ll likely get a spotlight encounter with Taylor Fritz in the 3rd Rd…..The winner of that would potentially get Rune in the R16…..if Ruud can right his ship and Zverev continue his improvement, they are slated for a juicy R16 matchup….Rublev / Sinner is another great potential R16 encounter, where the lower ranked Sinner would almost definitely be favored…..Another rising young American, the #32 seed Ben Shelton, only needs to win one match to then possibly face #11 seed Hurkacz. Shelton has a big lefty serve and plenty of athleticism – he only lacks experience as his career ATP record is 9-8!…..If de Minaur bounces back from a disappointing IW tourney, he’ll likely run into Med in the R16 – tall speed vs the short speed demon – fun, fun, fun!…..The last but certainly not least desirable R16 matchup would be Felix the Cat vs Tiafoe. So far in their young careers, the 22 yr old Felix has owned the 25 yr old Tiafoe, up 3-0 and 7 sets to 1. Their first matchup was in the R16 at the US Open in 2021 when Felix won in 4 sets on his way to his only slam SF (lost to Med). Most recently, Felix took him down at Masters Paris (indoor) last Fall 6-1, 6-4. Finally, I was unaware of Tsitsipas’ bad shoulder when I wrote up my IW preview 2 weeks ago…he’s entered again here, the #2 seed, and actually has a pretty tasty draw until R16 where a potential Khachanov matchup awaits. Hopefully the shoulder is better and continues to improve as the clay-court season is just around the corner, where Tsit usually shines his brightest.
One last quick note: The Tennis Hall of Fame Class for 2023 was announced a few weeks ago and only 2 people made it in – Esther Vergeer and Rick Draney – both wheelchair players. Not to diminish the incredible accomplishments of these players – statistically they were both extremely dominant athletes, especially Vergeer (668 straight weeks at #1) – but tennis as a sport is competing with all other sports AND entertainment for interest, publicity, web clicks, etc…and to have a Hall of Fame class with athletes that most followers of the sport have never heard of….well, it’s just crappy marketing and publicity to be honest.
Tennis – stop shooting yourself in the foot!! It’s bad enough you have to somehow both accommodate and simultaneously compete with the rapidly rising popularity of Pickleball…and then you do this – induct a class where 99% of your fans don’t know anything about the inductees. Again – no offense to the athletes: I’ve seen some wheelchair action and it’s very impressive what they do – but most haven’t, most never will, and definitely most can’t name a single wheelchair player – whether current or retired. That guarantees tiny interest, tiny publicity, and tiny viewership for the upcoming summer ceremony – not smart!!
Babolat · Carlos Alcaraz · Daniil Medvedev · Iga Swiatek · Miami Open · Nike · Stefanos Tsitsipas
