Tennis Prose




Nov/10

28

Nadal is going to beat Federer in London, I guarantee it

Nadal is going to take out Federer tomorrow in the Masters Cup final in London. Federer will give it all he has, he will give it a tremendous battle but in the end it will be a futile effort. Nobody is beating Rafa Nadal when he is playing his best tennis, no matter what the surface is, and Rafa is at his best once again. Wait a second, let me rephrase that…Rafa is still getting better and better, we still haven’t even seen his best level yet.

Surface shmurface. Nadal is an all court tennis player, he has figured out all the surfaces now and can win on anything. Andy Murray played an absolutely amazing match today, incredible effort by The Fiery Scot, and he deserves so much credit, he fought as hard as any competitor possibly can, but unfortunately for him, it just wasn’t enough, nothing is enough. I agree with (believe it was) Yannick Noah who said Rafa Nadal is unbeatable when he’s playing his best.

Nadal owns Federer in all their recent important head to head showdowns and he’s going to dismiss the Super Swiss once again in tomorrow’s final. All year long Nadal has shown all the correct qualities, I knew he was going to win in Paris and London and New York and predicted so. I see all the right moves again. No matter how well Federer plays tomorrow, it will not be enough to get the job done.

In the photo in my esteemed colleague Dan Markowitz’s previous article, Nadal non-verbally communicated to the world who is the best tennis player on planet earth.

On Sunday, expect Nadal to prove that one index finger is the symbol of his London destiny.

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23 comments

  • Dan Markowitz · November 28, 2010 at 3:13 am

    Even though you called me your “esteemed colleague,” I like that, I’m going to have to go against you in this one, Scoop. I like Federer over Nadal. The latter’s had the much tougher and closer matches this week. He looked like he was getting tired against Murray, who’s serve and forehand are not up to Fed’s levels. I can’t see Nadal in any way winning this match, unless it was five sets, and it ain’t.

  • Scoop Malinowski · November 28, 2010 at 3:41 am

    When Rafa is playing like this he is

    UN BEAT UH BULL!

  • tom michael · November 28, 2010 at 5:39 am

    There is no guarantee Nadal is going to win tomorrow. Besides I actually do not care, and I am a huge Nadal fan. I want Rafa to win the Australian Open, and complete the Rafa slam. Masters Cup is nice, but it is not as important as a slam. Obviously, Rafa wants it, and he usually earns whatever he desires.

    Onto the match-up with Roger tomorrow, Rafa will have to play perfect. He will need to serve great, which involves a high percentage, varied placement and spin. Return great because Federer is serving the best this week. Roger’s backhand usually a liability elsewhere is excellent indoors. Rafa will need to be consistent on his own backhand side. Neither man will hit that many winners off this wing. It will mostly come down to the forehands of both men in the baseline exchanges. Rafa is hitting his great, even better than Roger.

    Rafa may have a chance if he can equalize the serve, return match up. Then get into the baseline exchanges, dominating with the forehand to the Federer backhand, which can respond with a sneaky down the line commonly indoors. Rafa has to look for this, and even hope they miss. Obviously, he has to neutralize the serve forehand combo of Fed’s, the best in tennis history. If Rafa can throw a couple himself, his chances to win increase. Even a sneak attack to the net off a slice serve, or drive forehand help as well. Rafa will need to look for Fed’s drop shot, too. If anyone can defend against them, it is Rafa.

    Rafa has to keep the match close, and make Federer second guess himself. But Roger has the best chance to run away with the match with his first strike arsenal.

  • Mitch · November 28, 2010 at 6:09 am

    I’m praying for an epic match. Unless the Federer forehand goes off at times this year, I think Roger will pull this one out.

  • Sakhi · November 28, 2010 at 6:42 am

    Early a.m. in London. All eyes of course on today’s epic final. I have to say that despite being a Fed-fan, I really don’t care who wins tonight. It’s all about the quality of the final, and if the matches thus far are any example, it will all be about who starts better first. We all know that Nadal plays better when he is pushed, and we also know that Fed plays freely when he is ahead and in control. I don’t think either of them has anything to lose tonight–they’ve both proved they are still the top guns and though folks will say Fed wants revenge blah blah, I really just think he’s relishing the challenge. Watching him dismantle Djokovic last night was a lesson in contrasting styles. Federer was clinical, even when he got broken. The challenge will be to see if he can remain clinical in the face of Nadal’s resiliency. More anon.

  • vinko · November 28, 2010 at 12:54 pm

    I believe I spotted the lineswoman who made the Serena foot fault call working Rafa’s match yesterday. Will she be working today’s match?

  • tom michael · November 28, 2010 at 1:31 pm

    The woman who made the Serena foot fault call has not and most likely will not lose her job as a lineswoman. She was and still is rated as one of the top linespersons according to someone who works at the USTA. I give the benefit of the doubt that professionalism was maintained by the lineswoman. I am a Serena fan. I believe Serena is a good person, and that her behavior from that incident is foregivable, since she apologized anyway.

  • tom michael · November 28, 2010 at 1:36 pm

    Another strategic note! Both Federer and Nadal are excellent at the net. Roger has more weapons to get to the net behind, and Rafa has to defend well. Meanwhile, Rafa can get there too, and when he does, he needs to convert, and hope that Roger’s defense is not as effective. The conversion percentage at the net is going to have some significance to determine the winner.

  • Richard Pagliaro · November 28, 2010 at 10:44 pm

    Federer was almost untouchable on serve in the opening set – won all 15 first-serve points and lost only 3 points on serve in the first set – and I felt he was particularly effective hitting that slider slice serve wide on the deuce side. Went to that one time and time again and came up big. Really, with the exception of the 0-30 service game he won at 3-all he was in control on serve throughout the first.
    Federer’s willingness to sometimes step in and drive the backhand was important, I thought, obviously that backhand winner he hit on break point one of the biggest backhands he hit in the match.
    Rafa definitely looked leg weary to me after the 3-hour, 11-minute Murray match, but great to see him turn it around in the second set and force the the third.
    The fact that Federer did not flinch from the aggressive tactics in the final set was huge, IMO. He was trying to take Nadal’s time away, trying to take it early and timed some beautiful shots on the rise in that third set. I liked his willingness to continue to attack.
    Fatigue factor was evident in 4th game of final set when Nadal let that 40-5 lead slip and missed a makeable forehand. Thought Nadal, who is usually so sharp in placing his serve on big points, made a mistake on that break point trying to cross Federer up by going down the middle rather than reverting to the old tried and true kicker up high to the FEd backhand. Part of that may be the surface obviously doesn’t elicit the same high bounce, but I think he just felt he’d catch Federer leaning on the backhand.
    Nadal was clearly not as sharp as he’s been earlier and I think the Murray match did take it out of him. Still, fantastic week for Federer to go undefeated, serve so well, fire the forehand that strayed on him when he blew match points vs. Monfils in the Paris semis and the fact Federer went 21-2 since that US Open semifinal loss to Djokovic shows me he does feel recharged and has the hunger which should make for a great Australian Open, especially if Federer can continue to play with this type of ambition.

  • Scoop Malinowski · November 29, 2010 at 12:26 am

    Incredible performance by Federer, his best in a long long time. He attacked Nadal like he never has, smacked some beautiful backhand winners in that first set. Served so well, his serve and volleys were very effective as were most of his treks forward. This is a huge win for Federer and for future of this rivalry, which had been rather one sided before this match. Federer proved he can beat Nadal and decisively which should launch him into 2011 with a huge spark of enthusiasm and belief that he can be #1 again. You have to give Paul Annacone a lot of credit here, he could be the missing link, Arias kept saying how Federer is still improving and that’s a credit to Annacone. But for the Nadal side, he did not seem overly bothered by this loss. You have to think he was at 90% or less and his sights are more focused on majors. This was not a devastating loss and if they meet in Melbourne in the final, one big set by Nadal could erase this result. As usual, it was another typical spectacular match with so many amazing points and so few bad errors. Tennis at it’s best. As Agassi would say, Federer didn’t really win, the sport of TENNIS won. Now please excuse me while I wipe the egg off my face and hair regarding guaranteeing Rafa would win…

  • vinko · November 29, 2010 at 1:06 am

    Has anyone heard if Delpotro will be back for Austrailia? Nobody else is capable of beating both Fed and Rafa in a Slam.

  • Richard Pagliaro · November 29, 2010 at 1:53 am

    My understanding, from what I’ve read and heard, is Del Po will play in Australia.
    Federer was in fine form throughout the tournament and very important win for him to beat Nadal in a big final and do it with more aggressive tactics. It’s one thing having the variety necessary to change up tactics but obviously quite a different task to actually employ it in a final against a rival who had won 6 of their last 7 final meetings.
    So even though Nadal was clearly tired, it’s an important win for Federer in that he played arguably his best tennis of the season in the last tournament, he takes the title surrendering just one set in five matches, it reinforces his commitment to playing with more aggression and should reinvigorate him for 2011.
    You think about it and Australian Open is only about 7 weeks away. That surface suits Nadal better than this one did, Nadal figures to be much fresher and highly motivated to complete the Rafa Slam and win his 10th major.
    Federer has long talked about wanting to shorten up points and use his front court skills more and he did that to an extent in this tournament. The thing I liked seeing from him was the willingness to sometimes rip the one-hander and also the times he effectively ran around the backhand to tee off on the second serve with the inside-out forehand. Even that one he missed, sends the message he was going after it.
    You started hearing the whispers of vulnerability after Fed barely survived the opening round of Wimbledon and then loss to Berdych at Wimbledon, so seeing him go 21-2 and winning 3 of his last 4 tournaments – quite a way to conclude the season.

  • Scoop Malinowski · November 29, 2010 at 2:41 am

    Good point, the whispers of Federer’s end were greatly exaggerated. He has silenced all such talk with his excellent 2010 finish. Right now you have to rate him a very good shot to win Australia. Sure was nice to see how much the London fans love Federer, he was the clear fan favorite. Judging by the crowd noise today, they reeally appreciate Fed in London, more so than they do Rafa.

  • tom michael · November 29, 2010 at 1:13 pm

    I saw enough of the final yesterday. Nadal may have been a little tired, but not enough to stop him from having a chance to win. He afterall did win the second set, one more than I expected of him. Indoor is not Nadal’s surface and conditions. He does not have enough confidence with his flat forehand (as an offensive shot) or his backhand wing (for counterpunching) to put it together. He actually served all right, better than in the past at the Masters.

    His strategy actually sucked early. He was employing too much stand still rallying to the backhand of Federer. Instead of hitting 3 in row to the backhand of Federer, he needed to go for the inside-out forehand winner when he established control of the middle of the court. He had to move Federer wide jto the forehand, and he failed to do this in the first set, which he had to win in order to win the title (i.e. he had to win in straights to have a chance). He started to do this in the second, but he did not have enough left in the third to continue.

    Basically the strategy Federer employed against Nadal, Nadal could have done the reverse and been just as successful. Jimmy Arias is so annoying talking about the strategies Federer needed to employ to beat Nadal, but not acknowledging that Nadal can employ similar strategies to beat Federer.

    I repeat Arias is a jealous and biased jerk. And the nerve and stupidity of him to think that Nadal’s career was finished after losing all matches at the Masters in 2009. Djokovic lost all matches in 2007, not winning a set, and look what happened weeks later: Australian Open 2008 champion. So Arias was wrong about Nadal last year, and he needs to keep his mouth shut, making any predictions about Nadal’s end. He is just going to be wrong.

  • Scoop Malinowski · November 29, 2010 at 3:52 pm

    Desire may have been the key to this match. Federer wanted and needed to win this match a lot more than Nadal did. I think this was a match Nadal knew he did not really need to push himself to his limits to win. Nadal knows in order to prolong his career he cannot play all out 150% demolition tennis or he will burn out and destroy his body prematurely. I think we saw a good hard effort from Rafa but not the optimimum maximum effort we see from him in grand slam major finals, Olympics or Davis Cup. IN the big scheme of things, Masters Cup is closer in prestige to the now defunct Grand Slam Cup than it is to the majors. Even some of the points resembled exhibition levels of effort. Federer himself knows it will be A LOT more difficult to beat Nadal in Melbourne, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open than it was in the Masters Cup. Nadal is the clear #1 favorite to win Australia, despite this loss.

  • Dan Markowitz · November 29, 2010 at 4:48 pm

    Rafa not trying 150%, that’s hogwash. The guy was going all out, he just showed he’s not Superman by getting tired at the end. TMike, you’re way too hard on Arias, it sounds like you’re bordering on Rush Limbaugh-Obama level of distaste for the guy. What I like most about Arias is that he doesn’t deify these guys. He talks about him the way another player who can see their weaknesses, as well as their strengths, talks of other players.

    As for Nadal, his serve has improved greatly. But his backhand is suddenly becoming a stroke that can be exploited. He hits the cross-court well, but his down the line backhand is not nearly at the level of an Agassi’s. There was one point late in the match where Fed approached down the middle to Nadal’s backhand, looked to cover the cross court, and Nadal sprayed the inside out down the line backhand about five feet wide. That is a play I’d use much more often on Nadal, approach down the middle to his backhand, and make him pass you down the line on the reverse angle.

    Also, I don’t know why more players don’t get Nadal to come up more often. Drop shot him, get him to the net, he’s not that good at the net, especially when he’s not there on his own terms. I guarantee you a Johnny Mac in his prime, especially if Nadal and he both used regular oldie rackets, would have Nadal scraping his knees with the angles slices and volleys.

  • tom michael · November 29, 2010 at 6:01 pm

    Dan, I am justified to not like Jimmy Arias. I do not have to like a lot of people if I do not have to. Just like I do not have to like you. I however do like you, despite your dry sense of humor. But that is beside the point. (And to Scoop, Arias’ accurate but unfunny “looks like a Casio” reaks of resentment and jealousy. And he and his comments are not important enough to put that Swiss watch company out of business).

    And about a formula to beat Nadal. It only works indoor for now. An arena where Nadal’s topspin slows down to be teed off for flat, fast, low bouncing winners, 35 of which were hit by Fed. Nadal’s performance this week is a major confidence builder for the future. He won a set off Roger. After no one else did.

    I agree that Nadal’s backhand is not as great as some of the best in the game. But Nadal protects it by running around it- harder to do indoors. Nadal has to hit it and ultimately improve it over time. Mechanically it is adequate. But his footwork and judgement are questionable. But when inspired, he can hit some great shots off it, even from the middle of the court for inside out winners. Admittedly, his down the line does need to improve, and hopefully it does.

    And Johnny Mac vs Rafael with wooden rackets. Interesting matchup! I will give the edge to JMac indoors in their respective primes. But outdoor arenas all surfaces, with Nadal still having the present physicality and topspin, the edge goes to Rafa.

  • Dan Markowitz · November 29, 2010 at 6:56 pm

    I’m glad you like me, TMike, otherwise my feelings would be hurt.

  • Scoop Malinowski · November 29, 2010 at 7:11 pm

    Agree Nadal’s backhand was a little off in the match, and I do remember that key miss down the line. His footwork and sharpness probably were just an iota off from the Murray match fatigue factor. Nadal did look a little shaky at net and Fed exploited him. Who knows maybe the decline of the Bullman is underway. Maybe he’s losing that iota of speed in his step. Australia will tell us a lot. That Nadal is not taping his knees is a good sign that everything is fine.

  • Richard Pagliaro · November 30, 2010 at 2:32 am

    To Tom – if you and Dr. Rhymes play on the Hastings har-tru at Hudson Valley Club keep me in mind – would love to play there with you guys at some point.

  • tom michael · November 30, 2010 at 3:24 am

    Richard, It is funny you mentioned this. Gus and I hit there on Friday evening, because we happened to be free at the same time. Not often this happens. I did not call anyone because it was Thanksgiving week, so I just assumed everyone was just busy. I will definitely e-mail you about Hastings, get some doubles together. Hopefully, Dan or Scoop are available.

  • Richard Pagliaro · December 1, 2010 at 12:21 am

    Tom:
    How quickly you forget! You and I once played on Thanksgiving Day if I remember right so I would have been up for hitting Friday but sounds like you guys had a good singles game going. Sure, I’m up for playing there anytime I am not working. That court (Hastings) is one of my favorite places to play in the NY-area. Like the surface, the lighting is great, showers and locker room are clean and good, etc.
    Sure, looking forward to hitting there whenever you guys have time and I can ask Dan or Scoop as well.

  • tom michael · December 1, 2010 at 3:06 am

    I have not forgotten hitting with you on Thanksgiving years back; however, I do not have the same court privileges anymore. That day I was working the day shift so I was able to sneak onto the court during my work hours, since few booked courts, despite it being half-price.

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