By Henk Abbink
Tomorrow night’s Australian Open final will be the 13th meeting between Switzerland’s ‘Stan The Man’ against Spain’s ‘El Nino’..Two men, who respect each other on and off the court, practicing together on the Melbourne courts only a week ago. I don’t think either one expected they would be the last two standing.
Judging from his recent form and the way he overcame Novak Djokovic, 13 could be Stanislav Wawrinka’s lucky number after 12 consecutive losses against Rafael Nadal. He’s come very close, latest this past November on the fast O2 indoor courts in London at the Year-End Championships (6-7,6-7). However, the guy on the other side of the net seems to be ‘peaking’ at the right moment and has been duly tested on his way to the final by young guns Kei Nishikori from Japan and Bulgaria’s Grigor Dimitrov.
Opinions and expectations in the tennis world range from “a walk in the park†for the Spaniard to the Swiss “surely lifting his first Grand Slam trophyâ€. I, for one, expect a true and entertaining battle between two warriors who both want it as much as the other.
Stan’s amicable coach Magnus Norman said: “We now know who and what we have to deal with on Sunday night. One of the toughest challenges in our sport but you gotta love the challenge.â€
Norman, both as a player and as a coach, has proven his worth. The Swedish former World No. 2 was the man guiding Robin Soderling to two Grand Slam finals and his first Masters title, all in Paris. He was the quiet force behind Soderling’s rise to World No. 5. Since Stan took on Norman last April we’ve seen the Swiss building and radiating more and more on-court confidence. The result: Wawrinka’s first GS final! We can only guess the game plan, which for sure will be spiced with aggressive attacking, inside-the-baseline-forward-coming play, based on the rocket-serving we’ve witnessed so far.
Toni Nadal insists that his nephew will not be taking Sunday’s opponent lightly, saying, “It’s not the same Wawrinka today than one year ago.” (probably referring to his nephew only losing 6 games to the Swiss in his best of five win at last year’s Roland Garros). The Spanish team’s game plan will most likely contain more of the same as against the soon to be Switzerland’s no. 2 Roger Federer, coached by another equally quiet and amicable Swedish force, Stefan Edberg.
Key to who will lift tomorrow’s trophy will be how both will be able to continue the excellence they’ve shown to be capable of in Melbourne. Stan’s 81% first serve points won versus Nadal’s 62% second serves won and the Spaniard’s significantly higher percentage in both first and second return points. Then there’s the significant higher number of winners for the Swiss (249 vs 179) but the unforced error count goes in favor of his opponent (203 vs 142).
In short: if both are playing at 100% and remain healthy throughout the match, we’re in for a treat. No matter the outcome, tennis will be the winner!
What are your predictions?
Stan lost 67 67 in most recent bout with Rafa
Scoop Malinowski · January 25, 2014 at 8:46 pm
Stan is a self believer. He was dominated by Djokovic but he still believed, even after last year’s heartbreaker he still came up with his best season and exacted revenge on the Serbian this year. It is such a hard thing for a player to overcome losing so many in a row to one opponent but this shows Stan is very mentally strong. Stan also has been getting closer to beating Rafa. He is now on a career high and if he can win the first set, it could be a 50-50 match. I definitely give Stan a big chance to pull this upset. Stan has shown he is capable of creating magic in big matches, as evidenced in the Olympic doubles final and his last two matches vs. Djokovic in Rod Laver Arena. It’s going to be a great match. Very hard to go against Rafa but I give Stan a very good shot at it. He absolutely can pull a Del Potro.
Jordan Willis · January 25, 2014 at 9:15 pm
I’m glad to see I’m not alone in seeing Stan as having a good shot at winning this match. I was just watching highlights of their match at the year end finals, and Stan is more than capable of crushing a winner from either wing if Rafa sends gives him a short ball or a weak serve. Stan’s serving like a beast–if he keeps up his form and Nadal has a letdown, Stan’s going to be the one with the trophy.
gans · January 25, 2014 at 11:36 pm
Stan is in his first slam final. Nerves will be a factor. Nadal in four.
Mitch · January 25, 2014 at 11:53 pm
Against anyone else, I’d give Stan a chance, but the match up between Nadal against a one-hander is too much to overcome.
Jordan Willis · January 26, 2014 at 12:36 am
I think the only way Nadal gets through this match without a really tough battle is if Stan gets overwhelmed by the occasion and nerves prevent him from bringing his best game. I think Stan might show some nerves at first, but I think at this point, with his huge, confidence-building win over Djokovic, I think he’s shown he can play at a really high level on the big stages. I’m genuinely impressed by what it must have taken psychologically to beat Novak after the painful losses to him last year and so many defeats prior to that. I doubt he’s dwelling on the fact that he’s never beaten Nadal. I think he’s realizing he’s earned his place in the final and believes he can win. I don’t think it hurts to have Magnus Norman in his oorner either–I recall Soderling mentioning in an interview somewhere that historic upset of Nadal at the French in 2009, he was worried about the prospect of not even winning a single game against Nadal, as he’d suffered a 6-0, 6-1 defeat to Nadal just weeks earlier in Rome. Norman was coaching Soderling at the time, so he might know a thing or two about getting his players to focus on the present and forget about the past results.
Andrew Miller · January 26, 2014 at 1:15 am
I’m with Wawrinka pre-match. Key with Nadal is to stay with him, whole match – Nishikori and Dimitrov both got under Nadal and it was working, and Dimitrov has a one-hander – Dimitrov’s whole game began mal-functioning and he STILL had looks on Nadal’s serve.
I don’t make so much of a big deal about the first time slam finalist issue. If you feel it’s your time it can be.
All that said, Nadal is what Sampras said he is – total beast. If Wawrinka doesn’t OVERestimate him, I like Wawrinka in this match. But Nadal’s so good he could make it impossible and make everyone think of course, how could it be any other way other than Nadal holding the trophy and making it look hard but killing the opponent’s spirit. I just don’t get that sense of inevitability this time.
I’m frequently wrong but really don’t care. I like how Wawrinka is playing (by contrast I didn’t like how Federer has been playing – how he loses energy down the stretch even if it’s against Nadal). With Stan I think he’ll be playing until the last ball – and that’s a lot like Nadal.
Henk · January 26, 2014 at 1:38 am
The way Stan has been playing he has more than a good shot at the title. His backhand, which for sure will be under constant attack, is in better shape than his countryman’s. However, he’s almost made the double amount of BH unforced errors vs his winners (92 UE’s vs 47 winners). Stan has been great at the net too, winning 75% of this net approaches (87 of 116). His main problem will be that the guy on the other side plays totally different from his previous opponents. The Mallorcan has had success at the net too, winning 72% of net points and is more than capable of hitting passing shot winners from/on both wings.
Measuring Stan’s chances by comparisons to Soderling’s win under Magnus Norman are not really valid here. The rafa of that moment (mental- parents’ divorce, health-tendonitis and form) cannot be compared to the rafa that will show up in a few hours. Just like the Stan we have seen, cannot be compared to the Stan of a year ago.
Let’s hope for both players showing up at 100%, that Stan will not be mentally hampered by his 0-12 H2H and that rafa’s blister has healed just enough to further improve his serve.
Let ‘the beasts’ be unleashed for us to enjoy a match that should have all the ingredients for a final to remember.
Mitch · January 26, 2014 at 6:23 am
I only woke up in time to see the last game, but I’m amazed by the result. Apparently Nadal got injured? Still, very cool to see Stan break through.
Henk · January 26, 2014 at 6:40 am
Yes, Mitch it happened in the very beginning of the 2nd set in the 3rd game on Nadal’s serve. He won the game but then immediately had treatment and a dose of painkillers. Unfortunately we didn’t get the battle we expected/hoped for but it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy and ‘Stan the Man’ indeed is the man today!
Dan markowitz · January 26, 2014 at 7:19 am
Was there any indication that Nadal had hurt the back coming into the match? You’d think if he hurt it against Stan he’d be able to use adrenaline to play through it. This is a shocking result. It’s like Clay-Liston, but I doubt Rafa took a bribe.
loreley · January 26, 2014 at 9:23 am
Wawrinka outplayed Nadal in the 1st set. When Nadal was down a break in the 2nd he grabbed at this back & grimassed. Then he left the court for a MTO. Wawrinka was pretty upset. The crowd booed at Nadal when he came back.
I was surprised that Wawwrinka managed to hold the break & won the 2nd set. The interruption was like a rain delay, but with more drama. Stan’s rhythm was gone & he started to produce unforced errors right & left. And of course he started “thinking” as well.
Nadal didn’t move great anymore, but he managed to push the ball back. Pain killers kicked in & he won the 3rd set.
Warwrinka started the 4th set. Got up with a break to 4-2, but gave the break back. After the next break he served for the match.
I’m glad he won. I think he might have won against a Nadal without the MTO in three sets. He was in the zone till the 3rd set.
Andrew Miller · January 26, 2014 at 9:58 am
Injury or no injury: wawrinka! Classy of nadal to gut it out. No henin moment here.
Andrew Miller · January 26, 2014 at 10:11 am
Nadal class act in press conference . didn’t take bait on injury – described it but didn’t blame it and congratulated Stan. Said he was out played injury part of sport and that’s life.
Nadal a true champ.
Harold · January 26, 2014 at 10:13 am
Djoko would have quit after the second set, and would have said “he was in total control”
Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2014 at 12:22 pm
Loreley I think the booing killed Rafa, he was a shell of himself after that. Disgraced. Humiliated. He could not play and face himself for possibly faking the back injury. Stan simply was the man, he blasted him off the court in the first set and got the break in the second. Rafa tried the old injury card like so many other times when behind and losing but it blew up in his face. He also tried to claim he hurt it in the warmup according to quotes I read on Twitter. Watched the replay of warmup again and he looked perfect in the warmup. If he was hurt in the warm up why not call the medical timeout during the warmup. Great performance by Stan. He’s a legend now. Full respect for Rafa even if he faked the injury. No great champion is perfect and they all make mistakes too.
Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2014 at 12:25 pm
Come on Harold be nice, Djokovic has never quit in a grand slam final and he never will.
CS3 · January 26, 2014 at 12:53 pm
Anyone who truly believes Rafa faked the injury is just the typical envious, resentful “hater” of the true GOAT… The lack of steam on his shots especially his serve & the inability to display max effort to retrieve each & every shot should be proof to any objective FAN/Tennis media member… All that said, Stan is a different player these days & deserved his career crowning achievement… Rafa will bounce back & add to the accomplishments that make him clearly THE BEST PLAYER ON THE PLANET, THE GREATEST OF THIS ERA & OF ALL TIME but even a PHENOM gets outplayed & loses on occasion… This was Stan’s time & after years of playing second fiddle to his fellow Swiss compatriot – the smug, sour grapes venting, mentally fragile so called “Maestro”, I say good for you “Stan the Man” even as a HUGE NADALISTA! Most players would have just retired in his condition but that’s not what Tennis’s Best & Most Intense Competitor would ever do in a Grand Slam Final… Normally, Rafa pulls out prior to an event… There’s a certain other player on the ATP Tour who’s made retiring during Slam matches a routine!
Henk · January 26, 2014 at 1:29 pm
What a pity Scoop you have to bring into doubt an injury. Can’t we just celebrate the winner and be sorry we didn’t get the match we expected/hoped for?
Aren’t you forgetting how he played a 5-setter vs Novak in 2012 and lost. Can’t recall he faked or blamed his loss on injury. He tried to hang in there.
This is a player who will always try his very best and sometimes that ‘best’ is not good enough. He will be the first to admit to that.
Do you really honestly believe a player like him would play the way he did and “fake an injury” at the very start of the 2nd set, still a long way from defeat. The mere fact that he continued and tried should show you his class.
If still in doubt, this is what he said at the press conference when asked about his injury: “This is not the moment to talk about that. It is the moment to congratulate Stan. He’s playing unbelievable. He really deserved to win that title. I am very happy for him”
And BTW, yes there was initial booing when he returned to court which, however, immediately changed into total crowd support when everybody realized there was something terribly wrong.
Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2014 at 1:56 pm
Henk you are an avid observer of Rafa and you should have noticed how different his demeanor was after he got booed. He looked embarrassed and shamed and did not show any animation or fight, no fist pumps or Vamoses. Though he tried to finish the match there was not his typical level of all out effort. Rafa also said his back went out in the warmup and I watched the warmup again and he seemed perfectly normal. Rafa has a history of calling these injuries to freeze opponents who are beating him – Petzschner at Wimbledon is one of the biggest examples. Henk this was a dramatic match and I have to call it as I saw it. I think Rafa tried to fake the back injury when he was losing badly to Stan because that’s what Uncle Toni has taught him. It backfired in a big way and Rafa accepted the crowd’s reaction. Even great champions like Rafa make mistakes in the heat of battle Henk.
Andrew Miller · January 26, 2014 at 1:56 pm
Henk right on this. I think the nadal that took court wasn’t the same player but credit wawrinka . like agassi playing a hurt baghdatis it is hard to put away a wincing opponent a tricky task. Nadal in press room said how much he loves fans and understands the boos and that not long after they were cheering.
Anyways. To me if you are an injured player to some extent the injury a result of how you play. For years it has been said that the way nadal plays is both his key to victory and Achilles heal. Live by the sword and die by it ! No different than a big server. Nadals key is his movement.
Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2014 at 1:59 pm
CS3 I love Rafa and proudly own a Vamos Rafa tshirt but I believe he faked the back injury to try to unsettle Stan and change the rhythm of the match and break Stan’s momentum. Rafa has done this many times, coming back from the injury timeouts faster stronger and playing even better with no signs of injury. The Australian crowd is very educated and they did not believe Rafa’s injury and let him know it when he came back out. Again, I adore Rafa but he is known to use injury timeouts to freeze opponents. Great performance by Wowrinka.
Gaurang · January 26, 2014 at 2:41 pm
Hey Scoop — Nadal is one of the most honest (and most humble) players on tour. He works the hardest. There’s no way I think he will fake the injury. There’s really nothing to gain for him by doing that. He has come back from matches with a set and a break down many, many times.
I simply cannot believe that he would fake the injury.
(I havent seen the match btw).
Henk · January 26, 2014 at 4:28 pm
Scoop: “Henk you are an avid observer of Rafa and you should have noticed how different his demeanor was after he got booed”
Did it ever occur to you that maybe his demeanor had something to do with being injured and hurting. You mention “the Australian crowd is educated”. So why do then you fail to mention that after the initial booos, this same “educated crowd” rallied behind him when they realized there really was something wrong. (BTW I have been at all the GS on numerous occasions and don’t think one crowd is better educated than the other)
Andrew if you read my article and my previous reactions, you will notice I already credited Stan prior to the match and did the same after.
But I’m glad both you and Gaurang agree that he wouldn’t fake an injury, even less so on a big stage like this.
Gans · January 26, 2014 at 4:32 pm
Congratulations to Stan ‘Wow’rinka! Great job- Andrew and Scoop and others for believing in Stan! I went wrong in my prediction by overestimating Stan’s nerves because it was his first finals in majors.
The tennis that Stan played in the first set was unbelievable. It reminded of Gonzalez when he beat the best players en route to his only appearance in a grand slam final. It was the 2007 AO and Gonzalez had actually won the first set against Federer but the linesman called his shot out. Gonzo did not challenge! Till that point Gonzalez’s forehand had been firing on all cylinders for two weeks.
Gonzo not only lost that point but went on to lose that set and his confidence while Federer gained his. The same thing could have happened in this match had Nadal converted one of those breaks when Stan faced 0-40 while serving for the first set. Doubts would have crept in and Nadal might have steamrolled the match in four.
By winning the first set, Stan gained further confidence and continued the momentum in the second set as well. Nadal’s injury timeout did look odd to me because it was not the first time that he had done that. However, Nadal has competed wonderfully against Novak in the last three years and did not fake injury even when he lost to him 7 times in a row.
So being a great champion that Nadal is, we should give him the benefit of doubt instead of speculating at this point. Had Nadal started to play better and won the match today, the relationship between Wawrinka and Nadal might have been strained for sure.
Scoop’s accusation that the crowd’s negative reaction prevented Nadal from giving 100% after those MTOs is interesting but needs further analysis. It could be psychosomatic too. Sometimes mind does trick to the body. Just like Andy Murray used to suffer from aches all of a sudden when losing. It is not that they are cheating, but they could be reacting to their inner fears.
What’s amazing to me is Federer stands so tall in this aspect. It is not just winning, but winning without losing your health is important too. In all these years and even when he continues to lose to Nadal and others, Federer has never pulled an injury timeout. He competed hard and does not give any room to doubt his integrity. That is a mark of a champion and true sportsman.
Hail Federer, salute Stan and respect Nadal.
Cheers,
Gans
Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2014 at 4:59 pm
Gaurang, he’s done it numerous times. Did you see when he was down 2 sets to one to Petzschner at Wimbledon? Called TO for his “knee” froze the match for five minutes, Petzschner froze and Rafa got up and played like gangbusters like his knee was perfectly fine. “Boxing is 90% bluffs.” Tennis is also host to a lot of bluffing. Playing possum and pretending to your opponent you are tired, hurt or mentally quitting. Pete did it to Corretja. There are so many examples of players playing possum and bluffing their opponents. I believe Rafa is a master of this sophisticated art and he got called on it last night. It’s just my view and you can believe what you want, respect to your perceptions. I expect the same.
Scoop Malinowski · January 26, 2014 at 5:06 pm
Henk, because the crowd respects Rafa so much and they felt bad about booing him like they did. Again, Rafa is a great champion with so much respect but even the greatest of champions make mistakes in the heat of the battle…Ali insulted Joe Frazier with some horrible slurs. Wayne Gretzky called the New Jersey Devils a Mickey Mouse Operation. Mark Messier assaulted several opponents with his stick causing bodily harm. John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors did not always behave in a champion like manner. Pete Rose gambled on baseball…
CS3 · January 26, 2014 at 5:08 pm
Scoop, I don’t discredit your theory because there is somewhat of a track record of Rafa playing mind games with his opponents which includes playing opossum & looking for a break at times during matches when things aren’t going his way… I just don’t feel this was 1 of those occasions… When Rafa isn’t giving his customary ALL OUT EFFORT, playing each point like it’s his last then I think it’s safe to say something isn’t physically right with him… The punishing brand of Tennis he plays is DOMINANT & SUPERIOR about 90% of the time but it does take a toll on his body… Today is about the tremendous accomplishment of Wawrinka & the AWESOME TENNIS he’s been playing… No player has improved more in the last year both on & off the court (psychologically)… The level at which Stan was playing was likely going to propel him to victory today regardless but we’ll never know… He earned his career crowning achievement & I’m happy for him… “The Mallorcan Bull” shall return just as strong as ever if not better which I think we all know by now!