Jun/10

15

Which man will win Wimbledon?

It’s a lot easier to list reasons for top-ranked players to fail than to win the tournament.

Nadal: While he’s shown that he can thrive at Wimbledon after winning the French before, this time around likely took more emotional energy at the French than in the past. That’s because he had the burden of avenging last year’s defeat to Soderling. Maybe that’s why Nadal lost to his countryman Lopez last week. So the World No. 1 may not have the stamina to win the event.

Federer: It’s difficult to know how well he’s playing and how much motivation he has, given that there’s little left for him to prove. Losing to Hewitt for the first time in seven years last week isn’t exactly a positive signal. And Federer’s quotes after that match made it sound like he was trying to convince himself to believe in his chances at Wimbledon rather than that he actually does believe.

Djokovic: His serve is a mess now, and he hasn’t been able to really put his game together for months. He lost early last week to Malisse, and it’s difficult to envision he’ll suddenly turn it on at Wimbledon.

Murray: He apparently still hasn’t recovered from his loss to Federer in the Australian Open. Since then, he hasn’t made it past the quarterfinals of  any tournament. With all the pressure he faces as a Brit at Wimbledon, it’s unlikely he’ll suddenly get hot there.

Roddick: He’s had more success than Federer, Murray and Djokovic since Australia, winning at Indian Wells and Key Biscayne. He did lose early at Queens to Sela. But he would seem to have the most motivation of any top player to win the thing. And he certainly has the game to do it, given his three trips to the final. If Federer and Nadal don’t have their A games, perhaps this is Roddick’s year. I’m going with him.

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2 comments

  • Dan Markowitz · June 15, 2010 at 12:42 pm

    Firstly Dan, Roddick got to the finals of Indian Wells, but he lost to Ljubicic. Secondly, Roddick has like a 10 % chance of winning the Big W. He’s got the same amount of chance of winning Wimbledon as Spadea has of winning the Futures he’s playing in Davis, Ca. this week. Here’s why, he lost to Dudi Sela in Queens. That should never happen. Plus, he’s won like one match since Miami. Roddick is not the kind of player who can just turn it on. He’s not that talented.

    You’re right about Djoko. His chances are less than 10 %. This is clearly a Nadal-Federer final, I give Fish a 10 % chance of pulling a historic upset. Cilic another 10% chance, Murray 10 % because he’s looked un-Murray-like since the Australian. My dark horse is Berdych and long shot is Tsonga, but he’s been very disappointing this year. I don’t think Soderling moves well or volleys well enough to win the Big W. I give Querrey and Isner a 10% chance together.

  • Scoop Malinowski · June 15, 2010 at 1:59 pm

    Very interesting and clever pick Dan, which could come true. I can see it. Roddick is going to be amped & ready to avenge his failure last year. Federer seems to be in some kind of decline and could be vulnerable. Nadal is my pick but Roddick if he can play at the HIGH level he did one year ago will be hell for anyone. Also liking Hewitt. He was a factor last year, losing late in the fifth set to the in-form Roddick. This year after winning Halle over Roger, you have to believe he’s playing even better than last year. Murray is a total underdog and under the radar, but this may actually help his cause and take off some of the pressure. You also always have to factor in F-Lo (smile).

    But Nadal is the choice. He is playing dominant tennis and I believe he has mastery over Roger on grass now.

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