By Louise Belcourt
Saturday 7th January was Men’s semi-finals day at the Brisbane International.
The first matchup was a repeat of the US Open semi-final with Stan Wawrinka, ranked no.4, taking on Kei Nishikori, ranked no.5.
The number 1 ranked Swiss held a slight 4–3 head to head winning record against the Japanese. Nishikori convincingly won their last meeting at the Barclay ATP world tour finals in London 6-2 6-3. Although, in the US Open semi-final Wawrinka won in 4 sets before going on to claim his 3rd grand slam title. To be fair, in that exchange, Nishikori was coming off a bruising 5 set win over current world number 1 Andy Murray in the quarters.
Today would be a different story. Nishikori had been going from strength to strength in his previous matches. But Wawrinka applied the pressure on Nishikori’s first service game, having 3 break points and forcing Nishikori to dig deep for 11 minutes to get out of trouble. The rest of the set each player traded amazing groundstrokes, with Nishikori defending superbly, and Wawrinka unleashing his arsenals off both winds.
Fittingly going into a tiebreaker one would think Wawrinka’s power play would be too much for the gutsy Nishikori. But with Wawrinka up 2-1 in the tiebreaker, the tide would turn with a double fault from Wawrinka, followed by unforced errors and winners from Nishikori to go to set point at 6-2. An ace from Wawrinka saved one set point, but then a wayward forehand sailed long handing the set to Nishikori 7-6.
Nishikori seemed to go from strength to strength, whereas Wawrinka appeared troubled by a foot injury having called the trainer at the end of the first set and early in the second. In the fourth game the inevitable break of serve happened, with unforced backhand errors flying from the Swiss racket. Nishikori applied more pressure on Wawrinka next service game, to get the double break. Nishikori was too consistent, defending the usually potent groundstrokes and being aggressive as soon as he could. He wore down the game’s best one handed backhand, and seemingly broke Wawrinka’s spirit to win the match 7-6 6-3.
Nishikori was pleased with his form saying in post-match press conference “Actually, was really tough first set. I think I was really doing more defence in the first set, and especially my serve, I had many break points. He was attacking a lot with my serve and my service game. So I was feeling a little pressure with my service game. But really stayed tough until tiebreak, and I got, you know, one or two chance in tiebreak. After that, I think I was playing better play in the second.â€
Nishikori acknowledged his win over Murray at the US Open helped him “So I think that was the biggest win for me and gave me a lot of confidence. Yeah, like I said, I played a lot of good match against Andy, but against Novak, I haven’t done well yet, so that’s going to be my next goal.â€
The second semi-final was a clash of the mid twenty year olds, Milos Raonic, ranked no.3, taking on Grigor Dimitrov, ranked no.17.
Raonic was coming off a great hard fought 3 set victory over Rafael Nadal, ranked no.9, and just as impressive was Dimitrov’s 3 set win over Dominic Thiem, ranked no.8.
The first set would see each trading heavy blows, but Raonic’s trademark killer serve had gone missing in action, only managing to find 2 aces in the first set to Dimitrov’s 4. The first set went into a tiebreaker, point for point, that Dimitrov clinched 9-7.
In a telling first set statistic Dimitrov won 83% of his second serves, more than when he got the first serve in. This showed Raonic was not returning serve well.
The second set quickly ran away from Raonic, as he imploded with countless forehand errors, many dumped into the middle of the net. Dimitrov kept up the pressure with 80% of first serves, and great defensive scrambling quickly turning into attacks. Two breaks of serves had the normally composed Raonic exploding out load on Pat Rafter arena. The match was soon over with a 7-6 6-2 win for Dimitrov.
Of the loss Milos explained “I didn’t serve a high enough percentage. I got a lot of free points throughout that first set, but no, I was just a lil bit slow. I think he won over 80% of second-serve points, which is, for lack of a better word, pretty bad on my side.â€
Dimitrov of making his first Brisbane final said “I was just solid overall, moving well, hitting the shots where I had to. And, yeah, I was reading his serve pretty well after that, too, to do the second break. From then on, it was a pretty smooth sailing.â€
So will Nishikori finally win his first Brisbane International final? Or will (‘Baby Federer’) Dimitrov, get back on the track we all knew he was destined to go?
Nishikori is growing in confidence, I think he now believes he deserves his place at the top of men’s tennis. He is no easy beat, fighting for every point, hungry, determined, menacing.
Dimitrov has also improved considerably in the last 6 months, after he rose from a ranking of only 40 in July 2016 to 17 today. We always knew he had talent, but to put it together back to back against top 5 players is a tall ask so soon. Tellingly, he has never beaten Nishikori in the 3 times they have played.
My guess is this will be Kei Nishikori’s title. And everyone better sit up and take note, that he is hungry and ready to win his first grand slam too.  
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Hartt · January 7, 2017 at 10:00 am
I can’t remember the last time I saw Milos play that badly. Not only was his first serve MIA but the rest of his game was as well. Dimitrov played quite well, but not great. This was Milos handing him the match.
Am looking forward to the Kei vs. Grigor final. Hope it is a close, competitive match.
Andrew Miller · January 7, 2017 at 1:50 pm
Louise Belcourt another fine analysis that puts us in the stands. Thanks for front row seat.
I have bias against Nishikori as he tends to shrink in his most important five set matches. However maybe like Agassi said Nishikori does have the game and the toughness to win a slam. He’ll have to win the tournament.
I have no faith in Dimitrovs toughness down the stretch since he and Sharpie split. Seems Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova champion vibe had rubbed off on him through early 2014 until Nadal figured out Dimitrov serve is wayward and he had no plan B.
If Dimitrov has discovered a second wind and a way to overcome his wobbly games streaky nature more power to him.
I am stunned Wawrwinka blinked in his Nishikori match. If Nishikori pulls off a few more wins here he definitely enters the Aussie Open with his so confidence tank full.
Andrew Miller · January 7, 2017 at 1:58 pm
What! I read it wrong! Dimitrov? What is Raonic thinking. Bad loss after epic win. Now I have no idea. And now it’s Nishikori Dimitrov? For prides sake Nishikori has to win this convincingly. Raonic I think is in good shape heading into Australian Open still because of the Nadal win. Losing to Dimitrov is a head scratcher. If Dimitrov wins I still won’t believe his chances in Australia are very high. If he goes on a run in Australia then it really is a new era in tennis and the big four or five will be on the run the whole day.
Andrew Miller · January 7, 2017 at 2:00 pm
I meant that the big four five will be on notice the whole year! Running from the players and getting Kerberized
Hartt · January 7, 2017 at 2:17 pm
Andrew, Milos played so badly in that match that just about any ATP player would have won. His first serve % was 46% and he couldn’t do anything with his groundies. Sometimes when his serve is MIA other parts of his game come to the rescue but not in that match. He was very fortunate to get to a TB in the first set, partly because Grigor did not play especially well in the first set either.
Hard to say what went wrong, maybe flat after all the excitement of winning over Rafa? I will be interested to see the transcript of his press conference.
I agree that Kei is the favourite to win over Grigor. The match is on at 4:00 am my time but I plan to sacrifice sleep – am very curious to see how that match goes.
Scoop Malinowski · January 7, 2017 at 4:09 pm
Nishikori needs Lloyd Carroll to step up to the press conference mic and call Kei a journeyman – that is all Kei needs 🙂
Scoop Malinowski · January 7, 2017 at 4:12 pm
Super G is on an big upswing right now and he could be ready to explode and win that ever elusive GS title – Stan looks shaky but he often does in the weeks before a GS but then he finds his telephone booth and superhero cape when it really counts –
Scoop Malinowski · January 7, 2017 at 4:15 pm
Andrew: Super G played a super incredible first set tiebreaker and survived it but then Raonic I would guess subconsciously or consciously tanked the second set – he left the court with a big smile which expressed ‘okay let’s see if Grigor can do this at the Aussie Open” – Super G definitely looked good today though and he earned the first set breaker the hard way –
Andrew Miller · January 7, 2017 at 4:39 pm
WOW Scoop Raonic must’ve felt Dimitrov must not be able to duplicate the effort. If Mishikori is ready to rumble I’m all for it.
Scoop Malinowski · January 7, 2017 at 4:52 pm
Yes Andrew I would say Raonic will write this loss off as a fluke and he is still not a believer in Super G – Raonic is a proud warrior and I don’t think he gained any extra respect for Super G today – just a fluke loss which doesn’t really count in the big picture –
Scott mclaughlan · January 8, 2017 at 5:32 am
Great article but I still think kei wouldnt be able to beat stan in a five set grand slam match.
Theres a big difference between 3 and 5 sets.
Go Stan the man!!
Scoop Malinowski · January 8, 2017 at 9:03 am
Scott: Kei is no slouch in five setters but yes Stan is a different animal when the big chips are down – welcome to the site –
Andrew Miller · January 8, 2017 at 11:07 am
Dimitrov upends ATP with Brisbane title. Beats EVERYONE including Nishikori and Raonic mostly by a preparation process of lots of video games at Brisbane arcades. Demolishes stereotypes about what match prep should be including my bias for doubles as a confidence builder.