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Aug/16

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Scoopstradumus’s 2020 Crystal Ball

BallCourtDavis Cup final Canada vs USA – Opelka Fritz Tiafoe Kozlov def Raonic Aliassime Shapovalov and Sigouin 3-2 at the Bell Centre in Montreal with Fritz beating Raonic in five sets.

40 year old Roger Federer reaches the second week of all four majors.

Ernests Gulbis takes the year off to collaborate with Dan Markowitz and coach Vince Spadea to pn his autobiography Break Point III after the rip-roaring success of Break Point II with Donald Young.

Jennifer Capriati is appointed ambassador to Italy under the re-elected by another landslide President Donald Trump.

Nick Kyrgios overtakes Djokovic’s no 1 ATP ranking then decides to take a year off to pursue his dream to play in the NBA. Davis Cup captain Lleyton Hewitt replaces Kyrgios with himself for the Davis Cup tie vs Dominican Republic which is still lead by ATP top 20 star Victor Estrella Burgos.

Rafa Nadal is still in the top 20 but even with new coaches Bjorn Borg and Gustavo Kuerten aboard Team Rafa he has now lost 25 straight matches to Djokovic.

Ivo Karlovic breaks the 20,000 total career aces mark and sets the new ATP record with 29 aces in a set.

John McEnroe finally plays Serena Williams in a Battle of Sexes showdown in Dubai and wins 60 60 thus earning he winner take all prize of $2 billion. But Serena and Venus beat John and bother Patrick McEnroe in a doubles duel 76 64.

Radek Stepanek wins 20 matches for the seasons and vows to play “another two years.”

The WTA opts to sever equal prize money issues with the ATP and offers substantial reparations to the ATP players admitting “We were wrong the whole time – we don’t deserve equal prize money.”

Sam Querrey beats Djokovic and Nadal and Fritz all in the first week at Wimbledon but then loses in straight sets to Lukas Lacko in the quarterfinals.

Federer agrees to play Newport and Hall of Fame CEO Todd Martin is forced to build a new 75000 seat stadium to satisfy ticket sales. Federer falls in love with Newport and buys an estate on Ocean Drive right next door to new Newport resident Marat Safin.

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41 comments

  • Leif Wellington Haase · August 4, 2016 at 2:18 pm

    Surprisingly plausible predictions, save one…

    Even over a back-from-injury and seeking form Kevin Anderson, Reilly Opelka’s win in Atlanta augurs well for his future. And especially coming from a break down in the third, which testifies to his growing mental strength.

    In the immortal words of Bill Walton, “Throw it down, big man.”

    The two top teenage Canadians are the real deal and there is a surprisingly deep bench below them: could Canada be the new France?

  • Andrew Miller · August 4, 2016 at 2:33 pm

    Opelkas a lot tougher than I thought. The guy plays mean tennis and you can’t teach 6’10” or however tall he is. In Atlanta I think the fx guys on the draw side with Donaldson will win Atlanta. This isn’t going to be a Fritz-Opelka coronation. As good as they are they remain very good with a lot of pomise. A lot

    Yeah id say Canada is on the verge maybe in two years of featuring several guys competing for slams. Shapo might even make it interesting for top teenager with Alex Zverev.

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 4, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    Opelka is the real deal – I saw him play several times in junior and professional level and he moves better than Isner and is a better athlete – he is way WAY ahead of Isner’s in terms of progress at the same age – Opelka is 18 and has won junior majors (Isner did not threaten in any junior majors) and he’s winning ATP level matches and giving top 50 ATP guys battles (Isner was a freshman at Georgia at the same age) – I have no doubt at all Opelka is going to be a brutal force in about 2-3-4 years –

  • Jg · August 4, 2016 at 7:46 pm

    He looks like a pretty good hoops player, did you see the ATP video, Frtiz looked pretty good also. The guy is close to 7 feet and coordinated, you would think he could also play major college basketball, at least a sub.

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 5, 2016 at 8:13 am

    surprised an NBA club didn’t draft Opelka as like a project – he could be better than manute bol or benoit benjamin or shawn bradley 🙂

  • Dan Markowitz · August 5, 2016 at 11:02 am

    Are you serious? These NBA guys would tear him apart if he didn’t have ridiculous hoops skills. I might be working with Charles Oakley on a book and I met with Charles the other day. Now Charles is only 6-9 and he’s not as burly as he was back in the 90’s, he’s like 52 now, but still this guy is a specimen. Just because Opelka or Izzie is 6-10, it doesn’t mean they can bang with guys like Oakley who proliferate the NBA unless they have serious skills, which most 6-10 white guys in America today don’t have. I’m sure Opelka’s not Larry Bird.

  • Leif Wellington Haase · August 5, 2016 at 12:28 pm

    The Opelka-Isner comparison is a reminder of just what a late bloomer and overachiever John Isner has turned out to be.

    In his early 20s, and despite his NCAA championship, Isner was toiling in low-dollar challengers in places like Yuba City and Shingle Springs, CA…and not winning! His movement was barely credible and he had gaping flaws in technique off the ground. At times he made Ivo Karlovic look like David Ferrer by comparison.

    Isner really embraced his craft and although one can always hope for more breaking into the top ten is in many ways a remarkable achievement given where he started out.

    With respect to Opelka the main issues are motivation (like Fritz, he comes from a well-off family, though not as wealthy)and injury.

    On the basketball front, Dan is right in general that tall people without basketball skills would be eaten alive even by marginal NBA players. Opelka, however, has outstanding skills which I have witnessed first-hand. He has tremendous form (saw him hit fifteen straight three pointers), soft hands, and he can finish around the rim with either hand.

    Opelka worked out for Billy Donovan (now at OKC) when Donovan was at Florida– not sure if it was an official visit. I used to teach summers at the NIKE camp for the top 100 high school basketball seniors, many of whom went on to star in the NBA, and there is no question that Opelka’s skills matched up favorably with most of this group. Beyond that, as with tennis, it is a matter of motivation, avoiding injury, and good luck.

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 5, 2016 at 12:58 pm

    Leif: I would suggest Isner the Rochus brothers and Estrella Burgos as the two biggest overachievers of the modern era – Opelka has skills – there was a video earlier this week at the ATP site showing Kyrgios Fritz Eubanks and Opelka playing hoops – Opelka is night and day better than Chang and Rosset who I saw playing hoops at the old Hamlet Cup in the 90s – better also than Roddick who I saw shooting with Doug Spreen in Delray – Roddick had good shooting technique but not very good touch – or perhaps it was Doug Spreen making Roddick look mediocre as Spreen has exceptional touch and shooting accuracy from long range – Sharko told me Spreen lit up Bill mcatee in a pick-up four on four game one time – after mcatee picked to cover (and underestimated) Spreen who just lit him up from long range –

  • Dan Markowitz · August 5, 2016 at 2:55 pm

    Nice contribution, Leif. I had no idea Opelka was such a skilled hoops player. He must’ve played high school ball I imagine. That’s very cool you worked at the Nike camp for the top 100 high school ballers in the USA.

    But look, besides Gordon Hayward and Kevin Love, there really aren’t any good white American hoopsters anymore. Rick Barry, Bill Walton, Larry Bird, Chris Mullins and John Stockton are long since retired.

    As far as over-achievers, what about Spadea? The guy at 18 was told by none other than Stan Smith that he should go to college and he turned pro in 1993. In 1994 he cracked the top 100 and the next year he was no. 18 (granted for very short period). But I don’t see any of these young guns today doing that except Fritz.

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 5, 2016 at 3:16 pm

    Spadea is definitely an overachiever but not at the level of the aforementioned. Spadea told me he felt Rios was a big overachiever. Michael Chang has to be part of this discussion too. And the Williams sisters.

  • Hartt · August 5, 2016 at 3:53 pm

    Regarding the Canuck youngsters, Shapovalov is playing the QFs of the Granby Challenger tonight. And on August 8 (the same day as Fed’s birthday) Felix Auger-Aliassime turns all of 16!

  • Dan Markowitz · August 5, 2016 at 6:21 pm

    Chang an over-achiever!?? How can you be an over-achiever when you win a slam when you’ve just turned 17? He’s an over-achiever because of his size and his nationality, both beyond the norm for other 5-foot7 guys who are Chinese-Americans. But he was always better than Sampras, Agassi and Courier as a junior, he won the first slam of that group, so if anything, he under-achieved after winning the French because he never won another slam and his career ended so young and ignominiously for a guy who was ranked no. 2 for a long time.

  • Andrew Miller · August 5, 2016 at 10:18 pm

    Hope all watch Olympics.
    In other news:
    the shoe drops. Opelka d. DY in straights, a pair of 6-4 6-4. So he’s dropped Anderson and DY and gets Isner in a battle royale. Isner dropped Fritz in straights, 7-5 6-4.

  • Andrew Miller · August 5, 2016 at 10:19 pm

    Chang got the most out of himself, like Hewitt. Pound for pound, a phenom for most of his career.

  • catherine bell · August 6, 2016 at 3:15 am

    Scoop –

    Why are the Williams sisters ‘overachievers’ ?

    What benchmark are we starting from ?

  • Doogie · August 6, 2016 at 4:25 am

    When I hear “overachiever” I firstly think on Rainer Schuettler. Was a mediocre junior, had basically no serve, not a good backhand even his forehand was nothing special BUT was number 5 in rankings.

  • Andrew Miller · August 6, 2016 at 8:01 am

    Agree with Doogie.

  • Dan Markowitz · August 6, 2016 at 8:26 am

    Doogie,

    Rainer Schuettler, that’s your over-achiever? You must be German or a German-ophile. Rainer Schuettler, you know what I think of when I think of him (which I rarely do when it comes to tennis), nice player, got to Aussie O finals where he was killed by Agassi, basically a non-descript player who showed little emotion.

    In other words, I certainly don’t think of him as an over-achiever because in my mind, although he achieved, he wasn’t a markedly good player or flashy or personable player. But I guess you could say the same thing of Spadea too and Schuettler was a much better player than Spadea.My biggest over-achiever by far was Brad Gilbert, the guy got to no. 4 in the world coming out of junior college. Besides Pernfors, another big over-achiever, that’s never been done.

  • Dan Markowitz · August 6, 2016 at 8:32 am

    Actually Spadea beat Schuettler, and they’re only two years apart in age, 42-40, the last two times they played, once on clay and the last time, a straight set win for Vince at Wimbledon. Every match they played went three sets and they were all on clay except the last.

    Sekou Bangoura, 24 black American from Bradenton, I’ve barely heard of him, has beaten both Aliassme-Auger and Shapalov in Granby this week.

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 6, 2016 at 9:16 am

    Catherine: Do you think we will ever see another inner city kid reach no 1 in the world? Let alone TWO?

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 6, 2016 at 9:16 am

    Doogie: Good call on Schuettler – the guy suddenly popped up out of obscurity – could PEDs have been involved?

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 6, 2016 at 9:19 am

    I actually hit with Sekou in Bradenton about ten years ago – African descent – very bright nice kid – attended UF for a year then turned pro – still grinding out there – has good wins this year vs Paul and others – saw Sekou hitting with Querrey in DC last year or the year before after he lost in qualis – could be ready for his breakout –

  • Dan Markowitz · August 6, 2016 at 9:50 am

    Wow, Scoop, hitting partner for ATP players, that’s not too shabby. Yes in the picture I saw of Sekou, he looked very skinny, so maybe at 24 he’s filling out. It just makes you realize, I was listening to Kenny Anderson, the former New Jersey Net, talk about the toughest thing about turning pro at 19 is he had never lifted weights before and all of a sudden, he had to start lifting because he was playing against men who were 28 years old.

    In tennis, obviously, you’re not body-ing up an opponent the way you do in basketball, “basketball is a contact sport, football is a collision sport,” (like just as a joke, yesterday when I was talking to Charles Oakley, who still probably goes about 260 while I’m 185, I had him stand up and I tried to box him out, and it was like trying to move Mt. Kilmanjaro), but still when you’re 15 and 17 like Aliassame and Shapalov, it can’t be easy playing men.

  • catherine bell · August 6, 2016 at 10:02 am

    Scoop – I think of ‘overachiever’ as someone who reaches a level higher than you’d predict their skills would justify – so although Williamses did come from disadvantaged background I wouldn’t put them in that category 🙂

    Gilbert and Pernfors – definitely. I remember watching Pernfors playing at US Open on an outside court after his time had come and almost gone and no one there had a clue who he was.

  • Andrew Miller · August 6, 2016 at 10:51 am

    Opelka Isner. I expect Isner to come through in straights. Ipelka has nice game and with some placement practice he is heading for top twenty by twenty years old.

  • Dan Markowitz · August 6, 2016 at 2:35 pm

    Finding Olympic tennis in first round today interesting. Sock lost to Taro Daniel and Jo Willy is losing to Jaziri. You’d practically never see those results in a slam event.

  • Doogie · August 6, 2016 at 3:28 pm

    @scoop:

    I am the wrong person to talk about PED and doping at all because I am on your side (or Dans) about Top100 beeing doped. I also have heard from some former players that lot of pros are on something.

    @Schuettler:
    I indeed think he took Ped but that does not stop he that he reached LOT more than anyone expected – even himself he never thought he could win that much.
    Was an ultra hard worker on and off the court! Fitness was key for his success.

    But reaching number 5 nearly only with movement and fitness – hats up to him!! And so my number1 of overachiever.

    @doping
    Tbh I try to forget it when I watch tennis matches because I am such a huge tennis fan – I just want to click it away.

    Btw of course I am from Austria

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 7, 2016 at 8:31 am

    Tennis is very physical – look at the careers that have been wrecked because tennis is too demanding – Hampton Baker Kuerten Norman etc etc – all these great juniors now are great because of how hard they have worked as kids – let’s hope they last and can fulfill long careers –

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 7, 2016 at 8:33 am

    Catherine: Two girls out of the inner city are not supposed to have the skillset to be able to play against the country club elites who have access to the best training and coaching – Father Richard’s foundation of coaching was the key –

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 7, 2016 at 8:35 am

    Doogie: Schuettler proved he was a great player regardless – but one of those great players who lacked the flash and sizzle and thus will always be overlooked by the sexier stars –

  • catherine bell · August 7, 2016 at 10:12 am

    Scoop – point taken, but of course Williamses weren’t the first great players in the US to emerge outside the ‘country club’set.

    In fact, I wonder if that background’s actually the exception.

  • Dan Markowitz · August 7, 2016 at 12:48 pm

    This is true, although a player like McEnroe did come out of the country club set. And then I’m sure Stan Smith, Sampras and even players like Roddick and Fish, also came out of that element. The real rich kids usually don’t make it with the exception of Gulbis and Fritz. But if you look at Sampras/Agassi/Courier and Chang, I don’t think any of their parents were rich, but hey, Sampras lived in Palos Verde, Ca and probably Courier and Chang had money to go to Bollettieri’s and other coaches.

    Let’s put it this way, very few lower middle class kids make it big in tennis. The list is short: Spadea, Kozlov, Tiafoe, Arthur Ashe. I’m only talking about American players. Connors came from some money as did Tim Mayotte, even though they learned in public parks. I’m pretty sure Tanner, Solomon, Gottfried, Gilbert and Gene Mayer came from some money. One of the keys, obviously, is if your father/mother is a tennis pro like the Bryans or Dolgo or Fish, or you have a brother/sister in game like Washingtons, Blakes, Roddicks, etc.

  • catherine bell · August 7, 2016 at 1:08 pm

    Dan –

    You’ve only mentioned male players – what about BJK, Althea Gibson, Rosie Casals etc, and maybe more recent US players, don’t know.

    Connors – as we’ve discussed before somewhere, I really don’t think there was much money around in his household.

    Also, perhaps we should make a distinction between those who grew up with private money and those who attracted funds as their talent became obvious. So there was a bit of levelling out later on.

    McEnroe came from a well off professional background but I could never see him lasting long in any exclusive ‘country club’atmosphere – or wanting to 🙂

  • Andrew Miller · August 7, 2016 at 1:46 pm

    Isner vs Kyrgios for Atlanta title. Expect Isner to pull this out + compete well in Cincy. U.S. Men’s & women’s teams in olympics tennis have been smashed by the olympic hopes of other players. Only Johnson, Serena and Keys are up for the medals challenge.

  • Dan Markowitz · August 7, 2016 at 3:41 pm

    Good point, Catherine. But you know I don’t care about women’s tennis, except Giorgi. I was actually more into women’s tennis back in the 70’s to 2000, much better more interesting players. Although, Chrissy and her like were incessant ralliers, Chrissie didn’t come from much money, but her father was a tennis coach. I think back in the 70’s, when tennis hit such a boom, you had more players like Irina Falconi today, who literally came from the public parks.

    But I remember being in love with a young American named Raini Fox and I imagine players like her and Tracy Austin and Pam Shriver–the Republican and George Bush fan she is/was?–came from money. My take on money in tennis families is: it’s good to have it, but usually if a kid comes from a family that has too much of it, two things happen a lot: the parents don’t make it their job to make their kid a champion (which one of them pretty much has to do to really succeed) and/or the kid is spoiled and as one coach said about a boy who’s super rich and plays with my son, “He won’t run through a wall for you.”

  • Andrew Miller · August 7, 2016 at 5:01 pm

    Dan’s new book: “Break Point Down: How the WTA lost its way despite itself”.

    This “diary of a pro-tennis journalist” gets to the bottom of how, beyond two extraordinary Williams sisters and one italian who plays like Agassi Minus Accuracy, the WTA tour fails to hit the mark. Dan goes into depth on how sucky the coaching is on the WTA tour and surfaces extraordinary observations, such as players’ preferences for male hitting partners despite the fact that this wastes precious court time for all tournament participants. Dan cringes in describing the state of the women’s tour’s volleys, a tour de force of adventures at the net.

  • Andrew Miller · August 7, 2016 at 6:34 pm

    Kyrgios d. Isner, wins Atlanta. Isner, a man in need of a confidence tank re-fill.

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 7, 2016 at 6:59 pm

    Gimelstob’s father is super wealthy – Rusedski also – surely there were others – today the coaching and travel for juniors is just so expensive and $$ is a critically important requirement to even have a chance to be a pro player –

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 7, 2016 at 7:02 pm

    WTA tennis not exciting? How about this doubles shocker Czech Rep Safarova and Strycova beating Serena Venus – Wow – incredible tennis happens at the OLY – the best tennis I have ever seen happens at the OLY –

  • Scoop Malinowski · August 7, 2016 at 8:33 pm

    Incredible match right now with Delpo and Djokovic. It always is. Delpo up mini break 32 in tiebreaker. Delpo’s backhand looks like it’s back to full capacity again.

  • catherine bell · August 8, 2016 at 3:33 am

    Andrew –
    I’m really looking forward to reading Dan’s book !! :):)

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