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Oct/15

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Has Djokovic Finally Solved The Rafa Puzzle?

Even in his masterful 2011 season the signs were evident that Novak Djokovic was very close to not only turning the tables on Rafael Nadal but he was also on the verge of thoroughly dominating the raging bull. I remember particular matches that season in Masters Series clay finals where Djokovic would explode to an early lead and seemingly on the way to a dominant victory — however Nadal would fight back and manage to make the first set a battle, and then the rest of the matches were tooth and nail dogfights. This pattern continued for each successive match – Djokovic just could not quite completely subdue his ferocious adversary.10508168_608598622612508_496933603_n Now it appears Djokovic has tied up the final loose ends of his battleplan – as evidenced by the devastatingly impressive 62 62 win today in the China Open final, and Rafa is the one unable to thwart his own destruction. It’s kind of like the Evert-Navratilova rivalry which became one-sided for the Czech southpaw, though Evert was still able to produce some big upset wins against Navratilova at the home stretch of her career. But you have to wonder if this dominant version of Djokovic, so machine like consistent and still so intensely driven, will show any signs of vulnerability which Nadal will be able to exploit. Because it could very well be the decline of Nadal, with his supposed back issues which limit his movement and range of motion on both wings. We saw the same scenario play out with Lleyton Hewitt and Michael Chang- once their superhuman speed and reflexes lost a fraction, these two great champions were never quite the same. So the logical conclusion is that the mighty emperor of tennis Novak Djokovic may have eliminated the second most dangerous threat to his throne – and now there’s just one more man to eliminate from contention — Roger Federer — what do you think?

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26 comments

  • Andrew Miller · October 11, 2015 at 8:02 pm

    That is thumpin. However, Nadal’s still got game. An injured (if not physically, certainly mentally) Nadal has shown an ability to make comebacks against anyone still playing the game.

    For Nadal, 2015 is forgettable. To his credit he’s still playing well for a top 10 player, just not for his level of play from 2005-2014.

    And sorry to say it, but I’m not sure how many more times Nadal wants to do the decline-comeback thing. His uncle’s plan is to get the slam record, but it’s not so clear that this is Nadal’s goal. He’s still strong as an ox, just not in conquerer mode.

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 11, 2015 at 8:08 pm

    Not saying Rafa hammed up the injury but it seems very often that he conveniently comes up with some kind of injury to excuse the loss (doubt Rafa will pull out of Shanghai Masters) – despite this loss Rafa said he’s still very motivated to keep battling – Djokovic also said all the right things after the match too –

  • Andrew Miller · October 12, 2015 at 10:01 am

    Isner d Mannarino in 45 minutes. That is fast.

    Muguruza takes the title. Nice work. I was a believer in Bouchard getting a slam as I thought her competitiveness was like Seles (not her ball-striking – Seles was superior!). But I think now, in the story of the past two Wimbledon finalists, the smart money is on Muguruza because she kept winning after her breakout.

    A sign of what’s to come? In an experienced field, Fritz d. Donaldson in Sacramento, takes the challenger.

  • sharoten · October 12, 2015 at 10:12 am

    “devastatingly impressive 62 62 win today”

    You didn’t even watch the match, did you? It was much closer than the score indicates, especially the first set. If Rafa continues to improve as he has the last couple of months, there will finally be someone to give Djokovic some competition which he hasn’t had for the whole year. He’s skated through a past his prime 34 yr old, a guy coming back from injury and illness, a couple of guys who can give him a tussle on occasion but just don’t have the right stuff most of the time, and a generation that hasn’t stepped up to compete. It’s not likely he’ll have such an easy go in the future.

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 12, 2015 at 10:29 am

    I saw the highlights and from what I saw Djokovic never seemed threatened, as if he knows everything that Nadal is capable of throwing at him and he’s always ready for every KO punch, like he showed with that one incredible forehand volley at his feet off a wicked Rafa running forehand laser beam — didn’t see any visual hint of self doubt from Djokovic, just ruthless focus on exterminating his second most threatening rival – Rafa and Fed have their work cut out for them – how to solve the Djokovic puzzle?

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 12, 2015 at 10:33 am

    Bouchard has shown lots of talent and upside but her character is a question, Andrew, she has misbehaved a few times (late pullout, Fed Cup handshake refusal, prima donna aura) and I was told she is not well liked by the other players and a segment of the media also does not like her — these negatives can bog down a young woman and it can effect her on court – look at how the media campaign led by Navratilova and Novotna against Seles grunting affected her focus — Muguruza is popular and well liked like a princess and I think the immense positivity she has created will uplift her to tennis glory, she has the game and the character to be a major champion very soon –

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 12, 2015 at 9:12 pm

    Harrison bounced in first round of Fairfield by Darian King of Barbados, who I spoke with at US Open, big win for King, who told me how hard it is to crack the top hundred, he’s been close but is now just inside 200 — King is 4-0 vs Kozlov and also played Felix Auger Aliassime, lost in three sets — Dustin Brown was out watching — Harrison was serving up 40-l5 at 5 All in the second but subsequently lost that game and King held at love to close out the match —

  • Andrew Miller · October 12, 2015 at 10:50 pm

    Yeah, you know. The challenger circuit…we never know who’ll graduate from it.

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 12, 2015 at 11:00 pm

    And who will get chewed up by it —

  • Gaurang · October 13, 2015 at 12:16 am

    Nadal was #3 end of last year, even after missing some tournaments at the end due to appendicitis and injuries.

    So its just this year that he has failed to be his best. Even though I think he will be #5 at the end of this year, so its not that bad: Wawrinka being the only non-big-four player ahead of him.

    I can never count out Fed and Nadal — they are true champions. Fed has come back to be at the top — and Nadal will do so too. But this time, his mental problems are bigger than before. However, I think if he gets ONE good result, he will suddenly bounce back and jump into the top 4 — esp after FO next year when Waw will be unable to defend his points.

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 13, 2015 at 8:37 am

    Agree Gaurang you can never count out a great champion like Rafa — to F in Beijing was a very good result for Rafa, despite the final loss, he strung some wins together on a surface not best suited for his game – it’s a gradual process to get back to the top echelon, he’s not going to beat Djokovic immediately, he has to rebuild and regain the special amount of confidence that it takes to defeat the very best player in the world — Rafa is back on his mission and he’s on his way back up the mountain – not quite there yet —

  • Dan Markowitz · October 13, 2015 at 1:23 pm

    Bouchard has no chance of ever winning a major. She’s shown tremendous lack of ability this year and she doesn’t trust anyone as her coach. I’d say Stephens has a better chance of winning a slam than Bouchard and Stephens hasn’t done much in any slam.

    I think Djoko can get to 19 slams won. It’ll mean 5 more slam wins in next two years and then 4 more from 30-35, which would be a record because I can’t think of one player in the last 30 years who’s won more than 3 slams (Agassi) after he turned 30.

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 13, 2015 at 7:39 pm

    I don’t see how you can conclude that Dan, she came close by finaling at Wimbledon where she played a bad final and got thumped by Kvitova who is a monster on grass — plenty of time for Bouchard to mature and grow and get her act together — surely you would have written off Capriati early in her career – can easily see Bouchard putting it all together at some point – if Pennetta and Schiavone can do it, so can Bouchard –

  • Andrew Miller · October 13, 2015 at 8:05 pm

    Agree on Bouchard. Thought her game was exposed last year when Cirstea stretched her at US Open. It isn’t attitude necessarily – her stroke production and hitting short got her into trouble

    It is very hard for a player to add to their game. The top ten players generally keep improving it have a few players that by improving get top ten. Then you have tons of other players who you look at and say if they had this adjustment or that one that would do it. Rarely happens.

    It isn’t that it is hard to modify a game. But the player usually doesn’t want to or maybe coached by parents and decide not to just to rebel. Or say why change anything I’ve gotten this far etc on my game today. We all know that Kvitovas smoking of Bouchard wasn’t just an otherwordly win. It was a superior player exposing another players flaws.

    Suddenly everyone was beating Genie.

    Anyways I think her competitiveness is first rate but not the way she hits so short.

  • Harold · October 13, 2015 at 9:25 pm

    Bouchard would be lucky to have Wozniaki’s career

  • Andrew Miller · October 13, 2015 at 11:45 pm

    agree with Harold. At this point yeah Genie would be lucky with Woz career.

    It isn’t impossible for Bouchard. But today it seems like it. Her game has a lot to like.

    Actually I like Harrisons upgraded game also. Wonder if some of the struggle is giving the new parts of his game enough match exposure. Can be easy to revert to what you know worked before.

  • Moskova Moskova · October 14, 2015 at 10:37 am

    down goes FED, again..

  • Andrew Miller · October 14, 2015 at 11:02 am

    Seems like anyone using Rafa’s “hit to Federer’s backhand” strategy wins.

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 14, 2015 at 11:02 am

    Funny how fans and pundits are so quick to write off a very good player like Bouchard, they see one bad loss and a slump and bring out the shovels — Bouchard is going to be around for a long time — can only imagine Dan’s posts and comments when Spadea was in the midst of his 21 match losing streak — everybody in the sport had probably left Vince for dead, yet he still believed in himself — all that matters is what Bouchard believes — Hey what ever happened to Connors coaching Bouchard? Did he get the heave ho again?

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 14, 2015 at 11:05 am

    Didn’t see the Fed loss to Ramos, which is a shocker, but with the two straight heartbreaking major final losses to Djokovic, it’s plausible and understandable that a fraction of Fed’s inner fire could have flickered out — two big blown opportunities — hate to say it but the Fed fall could have begun —

  • Harold · October 14, 2015 at 12:22 pm

    Saw the Fed match. Cant it be a good player played out of his mind, and Fed had a so so day, after a month break?

    I’m sure it’s not earth shattering for Fed

  • Scoop Malinowski · October 14, 2015 at 12:31 pm

    Ramos is a lefty from Spain and you have to think he consulted with that other lefty from Spain on how to breakdown the Fed BH — could be a fluke after a layoff — we’ll see what happens in Basel –

  • Moskova Moskova · October 14, 2015 at 12:34 pm

    hate to see FED go but it is inevitable…..the downward spiral could gain momentum in 2016 and conversely, nadal can supercharge and get back on his high-horse again….or not 🙂

    regardless and unfortunately, djoko will remain near the top for a few more years 🙁

  • Dan Markowitz · October 14, 2015 at 1:57 pm

    Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul will be co-no. 1’s in 2020. Remember where you read this mega-prediction first.

  • Moskova Moskova · October 14, 2015 at 3:41 pm

    @ dan…haha….taylor dent and tommy haas aint gona be no number 1..

    fritz who ? and paul who ?? 🙂

  • Andrew Miller · October 14, 2015 at 7:19 pm

    Bouchard has struggled since Wimbledon 2014. I like her game and I also think it has some glaring weaknesses like hitting too short. That hasnt been fixed.

    Like I said before, every player needs to improve. Few do it.

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