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May/15

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Opinion: Nadal will be as dangerous and formidable as ever at Roland Garros

Novak_vs_Rafa_RG_2013_semis_01

I expect a different Rafael Nadal in Paris. For the first time it looked like he was saving himself during the clay season, perhaps subconsciously tanking.

Rafa knows he’s not Superman anymore, he can’t be a beast for every single ball in every tournament, he has to be selective, pick his spots, to preserve himself for as long as possible, to extend his career as far as he can. I think this mental element has affected his clay season performances but in Paris we will see, Rafa going all out again, as if he’s playing his final tournament with his life on the line.

He is perfectly fresh and the underdog with a lot to prove. I think Rafa still has the mental edge on Djokovic on Chatrier. Despite his struggles vs. Djokovic this year, he can still bring back the old magic and mentally stagger Djokovic with his crazed intensity levels, which he only seems to be able to summon in Paris. Rafa showed the last two years he wants it much more than Djokovic and stole both matches from him because of greater desire and hunger. Djokovic was the best player the last three years on clay and should have won the last three French Opens, in my opinion, but he failed to get the job done. There has to be a small trace of doubt in Djokovic’s mind, for whatever reasons he has been unable to produce his best tennis on Chatrier stadium against Nadal and also Federer.

I believe this hyped quarterfinal clash between Rafa and Djokovic s absolutely destined to happen and it may end up being one of the most watched matches in tennis history.

Common tennis sense suggests it’s finally the time for Djokovic to make history and win this elusive major, he has paid his dues and suffered enough. It’s his time. But to finally win the French Open, Djokovic will need to overcome the greatest challenge of his career and his self-confessed, most formidable rival, the raging bull Rafa Nadal.

Scoop’s latest tennis book “Facing Nadal: Symposium of a Champion” is now available at amazon for $9.99.

30 comments

  • Gans · May 23, 2015 at 11:29 pm

    Scoop,
    First of, congratulations on your new book!

    I think, you want Djokovic to win so badly that you are afraid that he may get beaten by Rafa! 🙂 Shed the fear! Djokovic will get it done.

    I agree that Nadal will be ready. There is nothing wrong in his game. It’s just confidence and he is fully fit physically also.

    Last year was weird. Djokovic won the first set and was very well poised to win the French, but something went wrong. He vomited right after the first set. Either it was psychosomatic or he was bothered by some physical ailment.

    If you look at his career, Djokovic started playing absolutely amazing tennis since 2011. Superficially, it may look as if Djokovic has some kind of mental weakness against Nadal at the FO, but that is not the case. The greater a champion is, harder it is to dethrone. It’s that simple.

    It took Rafa just third attempt to topple Federer on grass because of two reasons: Rafa had the game that troubled Federer. Rafa knew that Federer was scared of him.

    Novak had to deal with Rafa and Federer since 2011. So it took 2012, 2013 and 2014 to learn how to develop himself mentally and physically to get to where he is today. So I believe, he will beat Rafa in three of four.

    Unlike, Federer, Djokovic does not need anyone’s help to take out Nadal. He will do it himself. If he does in four, he will have plenty left in the tank and will be unstoppable at the French. He would then go on to win the Calendar Year Slam!

    Cheers,
    Gans

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 24, 2015 at 7:07 am

    Thank you Gans, but Rafa winning would be better promo for my book! Yes, despite that, I do feel Djokovic deserves the glory and joy of finally winning Roland Garros now. It’s his time to shine. But we can’t just assign the title to Djokovic, not with a wild raging bull on the loose on the grounds of the French Open. Nadal must be respected and taken very seriously. All possibilities must be explored and considered. Dominic Thiem said in Facing Nadal, to beat Rafa at the FO is one of the greatest challenges in all of sports history. And he’s right. No matter how well Djokovic is playing, he is always susceptible to suffering a flat tire or hitting a huge pot hole when he plays Rafa in Paris. Last year he got sick. Who knows what can happen this year. Rafa is going to challenge him and throw everything and the kitchen sink at him. What a match. Match of the decade.

  • Gans · May 24, 2015 at 9:38 am

    Scoop, you wrote Facing Federer despite Nadal taking over. Now you have written Facing Nadal despite Djokovic taking over. If not already, you will have to start one on Novak pretty soon! Maybe, you can wait until he wins French!

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 24, 2015 at 11:56 am

    Gans, you are right, I’m always a little late on getting these ideas. I have to start now on Djokovic, but the problem is I’m already working on Facing McEnroe and Facing Serena. ) Facing Djokovic is mandatory though and it must be done. And it will be done )

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 24, 2015 at 12:00 pm

    Federer looked very good today. Happy to see Gulbis won in straights, it looks like the reunion with Bresnik and Thiem was the smart move, Enqvist just didn’t work out at all. Baghdatis earned a tough win from Dr. Ivo, always good to see Marcos grinding out wins in majors, remember not long ago he was falling and falling outside the top hundred, he’s turned it around nicely. Sad loss for hopeful Caroline Garcia losing to Vekic, you can tell Garcia had great expectations. Stan looked good. Boy the ball makes a different noise blasting off his Yonex, or maybe it’s the acoustics of that court. The first day of a major is always a special excitement.

  • Dan Markowitz · May 24, 2015 at 2:56 pm

    How about Steve Jo winning the 5th set against a good clay courter like Garcia Lopez after GGL came back and won sets 3 and 4? That’s a good win for SteveJo. Look, Gulbis winning anything at this stage is a good win, but Sisjling isn’t a good player and I think he’s more of a grass court player. Gulbis has a sweetheart of a draw now having to face Mahut, probably the only Frenchman ever who can’t play on clay.

    Who beat Donaldson in the qualis? Tiafoe-Klizan match should be interesting. I have to admit I feel a little biased against Tiafoe after hearing that he dropped his coach of 10 years to go with the USTA and Higueras. You think he would’ve demanded that his old coach still be part of his team and get a salary–the USTA has the bucks–kind of like Federer with Luthi.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 24, 2015 at 5:46 pm

    Do not doubt on Johnson Dan, like you were a few weeks ago, he has something special, and this is one of his best career wins, GGL has tested all the top guns. Huge huge win for Johnson. Tiafoe linking with the USTA means bye bye for Mischa Kuznetsov, who did a great job getting Tiafoe this far but he’s not qualified to coach an ATP player. Federer dropped Peter Carter. Sampras dropped Pete Fischer. Agassi dropped his dad. McEnroe dropped Palafox. It’s the nature of tennis.

  • Gaurang · May 25, 2015 at 2:09 am

    It’s a huge win for Johnson I agree, Garcia Lopez is very difficult to get past on clay.

    Scoop I agree with Gans. I personally would put Facing McEnroe on the ice for now since it’s a perennial book. And work on Djokovic. He is the hottest player right now. And people would want to read about him right now the most. If you release the book sometime in the first half of next year (sorry not sure how long it takes to write the book, am sure it’s a humongous amount of work), that would be best. He would have gone into double digit slam count and would be really hot. The downside though is that his story will not be over by then. So maybe you should write a book with the title “The Rise Of Djokovic”. Then it will be perfect time to release. You could write similar material but just twist it a bit to focus more on his rise into dominance. Capture what he did since 2011 for example and his struggles of 2007-2010 when he was always second fiddle to Rafa and roger. Then how he overcame it. What people thought of him before 2011 and what they think of him since. Novak himself would have a lot to say about this and would cooperate a lot with you if you name the title “the rise of Djokovic” I think :). It will be interesting to see what roger and Rafa have to say about the post 2011 Djokovic. Earlier nadal used to just about how he won his rivalry against Fed. Suddenly people started asking him about his rivalry against Novak and he used to sound surprised (there was a nice Charlie Rose interview with nadal in 2011).

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2015 at 8:28 am

    Nice creative idea there Gaurang, the “Rise of Djokovic” has been one of the great feats in tennis, it was considered impossible to unseat Rafa and Fed at one time but somehow some way Djokovic has been able to do this Herculean task. People don’t remember how formidable Rafa and Fed were considered a few years ago and how weak mentally and physically Djokovic was perceived. It’s just incredible that this Serbian has been able to turn the tables and dethrone arguably the two greatest kings the ATP has ever seen. And right now it looks like Djokovic can become the best of all time, long way to go but if he stays healthy and on this path, I see great things down the road for Djokovic. Like the Grand Slam and many more major titles. Right now it may not seem it, but someday a Djokovic book is going to be a be a hot subject to read about.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2015 at 8:33 am

    Tiafoe down in straights, Klizan is a tough draw for the kid, Klizan beat Rafa last year and is a solid accomplished vet. Just a tough draw for the precocious seventeen year old who is getting a TON of press lately, multiple articles at the ATP site, major stories at major newspapers. Kind of would prefer to see Tiafoe come up more under the radar, all this attention may put too much pressure and expectation on him, not to mention a big target on his back. Huge win for Teymuraz Gabashvili taking down Lopez in straights. Gabashvili gets no respect or media coverage at all, but he’s one of the best interviews in the sport, he spoke with me for Facing Fed and Facing Nadal and he’s fantastic, very intelligent. Not the most aesthetic playing style on the tour, this veteran baseline basher has had a steady career around the #60 range, coached by Canas, had some good matches on stadium courts at majors over the years, today may be his best win.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2015 at 8:42 am

    Interesting comments about Rafa by PMac…

    So deep is the gloom around Nadal that Patrick McEnroe – who won his only slam title here, the doubles alongside Jim Grabb in 1989 – even fears he might quit tennis if an early defeat is followed by a further tumble down the rankings. Of the scores of prognoses conducted recently over the still breathing corpse of the eminent champion, that one is, by a distance, the most alarming. And many would say alarmist.

    McEnroe – in conversation last week with his ESPN colleagues Chris Evert and Mary Joe Fernandez – said: “This could be a real crossroads tournament for Nadal. I don’t see him sticking around if he drops out of the top 10, if he loses relatively early, which is possible. It would be a huge psychological blow. I hope it doesn’t happen, but it could be a very quick fall for him.

    “He’s always been able to pick himself up and dust himself off. He’s had some really tough injuries, some big matches. You go back to the US Open when he lost to Del Potro. He was struggling there; a couple times in the Australian against Ferrer, then against Wawrinka in the final. But he’s always managed to be good to go at the French. Somehow, he’s always found a way to get himself ready there.

    “[But] just the way he plays, there’s so much effort expended. He doesn’t have the same ease of striking the ball as Djokovic and Federer. His heart and his commitment will be there; I think it’s his body. If his body and his mind start to break down – and they sort of go hand-in-hand – I think that would be his downfall. He could be done pretty quickly.

    “Obviously, Nadal’s lost quite a bit of confidence. You can see by some of the big misses that are coming into his game, seemingly out of nowhere, some of them at crucial times in a match. I don’t think he’s moving nearly as well in defence as he has in the past. When he gets out wide into the corners, to me it looks like he’s a half a step slow. Some of that might be just his lack of confidence in his swings.”

    McEnroe added: “It’s almost impossible to know for sure if it’s the longevity factor, the miles, the wear and tear he’s put on his body. I don’t think any of us are really surprised that this would happen to him – certainly earlier than Djokovic or Roger. That being said, I still think that he’s the second favourite at the French. I would have to put Djokovic as the favourite based on just how dominant he’s been this year. But confidence and movement are the two big issues for him right now.”

    Evert was not so gloomy. “He doesn’t look as sharp going into it this year, no doubt about it,” she said. “But you have to be stupid to count him out, especially if he starts to gain that confidence in the first week.

    “I don’t mean this to sound the way it probably is sounding but I think he looks leaner and maybe isn’t as powerful as he used to be. I’m uncomfortable. I’m not implying anything, but at the same time he just doesn’t look as imposing as he used to. Every muscle in his body was pumped up. He used that for explosion. He doesn’t have that explosion any more.”

  • BoDu · May 25, 2015 at 9:09 am

    Greg Garber reckons that last year, Nadal’s issues were largely physical, not mental like now http://espn.go.com/tennis/french15/story/_/id/12913931/french-open-rafael-nadal-crisis-confidence

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2015 at 9:23 am

    BoDu, it’s just normal, the time has come that Rafa is declining, he couldn’t stay on top forever. I remember many years ago pundits and fans expected Nadal to be burned out by 24-25 or earlier, given the physically demanding way he plays. That he has lasted this long – Rafa will be 29 next week – is almost astonishing. I remember even Agassi expressed the opinion that Rafa would have a shortened career. It had to happen, the fade of Rafa was inevitable, that the decline is striking Rafa apparently now, should come as no surprise to anyone.

  • Harold · May 25, 2015 at 9:50 am

    Eulogies are a bit premature. Scoop, you hegde youre predictions daily. One day Djoko is unbeatable, next day, doubt count out Nadal.
    Let this play out and then hit us with the Post Mortems.

    PMac’s brother lost to Gilbert, hung the sneaks up for a year, that loss killed. Came back was never the same. Reached some semi’s no Majors after 84. If the Internet was around half the people would have thrown him under the bus. He reinvented himself, became a somewhat fan favorite as he was now an underdog.

    Its a slump for Nadal, no doubt, but psychology theories on the net wont change anything.

    Its easy for PMac to guess. Nadal has enough money for 3 lifetimes, but hes a hard worker. If its physical then maybe he moves on

  • Dan Markowitz · May 25, 2015 at 10:22 am

    THIS JUST IN: FELICIANO LOPEZ WILL NOT WIN THE FRENCH OPEN!

    I know Scoop said it was Wimby F Lo had a chance of winning, but to lose to Gabashvili in straights–Gabby is a third tier player–is a bad loss.

    Love watching my man Simon play. There was once a commentator on this here blog, Tommyboy, who knows his tennis but foolishly bet me that Simon would reach two slam semis. That ain’t happening, but he took care of Pouille in 4 today.

    Bad loss for Tiafoe. I know he’s only 17, but when you play so well on clay in the states and then you make a big splash signing with Jay Z’s agency and switching coaches to Higueras, and you lose to Klizan, winning a total of 7 games, that’s a bad loss. If PMac says Nadal might retire if he loses early in the French this year, then I’ll match PMac and say Tiafoe may never recover from losing his first slam match so badly. I mean Klizan came into this match having won only 3 matches in 4 tourneys on the European clay and they all came in Barcelona, the weakest of those tourneys.

    Best match today: Sam Querrey vs Borna Coric. Sticking with the apocalyptic tone of the day, I predict if Sam loses, he retires and transitions into being a Reality TV show star.

  • Dan Markowitz · May 25, 2015 at 10:47 am

    Wow, reading that Evert quote, it’s packed with a lot of innuendo. Isn’t she basically saying that Nadal was juicing and so explosive, and maybe now because of injury, he’s choosing to be leaner, has come off the juice, and is not nearly as powerful.

  • Harold · May 25, 2015 at 10:59 am

    Dan,
    The US Clay(green) is a joke compared to the red clay challengers, or 250’s. They need to either switch to red,or guys like Tiafoe, Qball, have to get to Europe earlier in the Spring.
    I’ll give Tiafoe a break this year,still making his bones out on tour, but next year, no futzing around with Green clay, not that I see future success on the red stuff. Just another American one trick pony(hardcourts)

  • Dan Markowitz · May 25, 2015 at 12:01 pm

    Well, if you read this nice article on the ATP web site, http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2015/05/21/Roland-Garros-Tiafoe-Feature.aspx, it shows that Tiafoe played a lot of tennis growing up on the green clay. I’ve played on both green and red clay, there’s not that much difference except red clay is harder and balls bounce higher. Qball is a good player, but he’s never had any fight or moxie, not much anyhow.

  • Harold · May 25, 2015 at 3:02 pm

    Wow!! Story in the NY Post about Tiafoe at French. They never give tennis this kind of space. Roc Nation doing their work.

    http://nypost.com/2015/05/25/humbling-day-for-usas-17-year-old-jay-z-backed-tennis-hope/

  • Bryan · May 25, 2015 at 3:26 pm

    Well, given he’s only lost 1 time at Roland Garros, until Nadal busts out we have to presume he brings his A game to this French Open. But he’s had the worst clay court season I’ve ever seen him play.

    Nadal’s mentally weak for some reason this season and that’s normally one of his many great strengths. If he does get to the QF match against Djokovic he’ll mentally get crushed.

  • Bryan · May 25, 2015 at 3:30 pm

    BTW anyone else surprised at the Stan Wawrinka affair with Donna Vekic train wreck? I Googled to see match results and it was all about how Stan’s affair with Donna led to his divorce in April. It’s quite the soap opera.

    Apparently I’m the only one who didn’t know about this as if you go back at Twitter there was chatter about this going back to Feb/March.

  • Harold · May 25, 2015 at 4:35 pm

    Donna Vekic is not ugly.

    Amazing how in individual sports, people jump on and off bandwagons very easily. We really hold these guys to extremely high expectations. I am,and was a Fed guy, and of the belief you might not be the GOAT, if theres a guy in your era that owned you, and had a historic career as well. In Paris, someone has to beat Nadal in his house before the eulogy can start.
    Nadal’s body has changed throughout his career, injury, and going to war every match, might be his downfall. I just need to see him lose. I think this clay season and every one after is about The French. Masters series events might screw with his confidence, but I would guess it’s all about Paris

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2015 at 6:44 pm

    This loss will spar Tiafoe to work harder. Hey, I remember James Blake’s first US Open match vs. Chris Woodruff, Blake lost one one and one. So this was not that bad of a loss for Tiafoe. Noah Rubin was up a set and at 5-5 and lost to Virginia’s Ryan Shane in the NCAA final. Jenna Loeb of NY won the womens NCAA, two Americans. Another good sign for USA tennis.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2015 at 6:45 pm

    Harold, Tiafoe is getting more publicity right now than Fed Rafa and Djok combined. Tiafoemania has officially begun.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 25, 2015 at 6:48 pm

    Did not know about Stan and Vekic, is she still a teenager, seemed like yesterday she was sixteen and playing US Open qualies. There was a report Stan also was involved with an ATP staffer a few years back. Stan is the man.

  • Gaurang · May 26, 2015 at 3:07 am

    I think Nadal’s decline has been hugely exaggerated. His ranking is low also because of the many months of tennis he missed last year due to injury. He has not recovered from the injury at his best, but he is still playing very well. This time, he will just take a bit more time to get to his best. But if Nadal is good at something, its fighting. Nadal is, at his core, a great fighter. And he will fight back from this slow recovery. And may even go higher than his pinnacle.

    Am not sure whether he will win RG 2015, but am sure he will fight back and get back to top 4 by the end of Aus Open next year.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 26, 2015 at 7:51 am

    Gaurang; It seems like everyone is forecasting that Rafa is basically finished. Besides Maria not one prominent tennis figure is backing Rafa to win the FO, as far as I have seen. Rafa is a severe underdog right now and this will definitely add spark to his engine. All eyes will be on Rafa. We’ll see how he responds.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 26, 2015 at 8:52 am

    Right now it’s 63 and on serve in the second set, Rafa is not looking great vs. Quentin Halys of France, a young player I have never heard of before. It’s just not there for him, everything seems a struggle. He looks like a shell of himself, like Mike Tyson post jail. Something is missing now. I can see Djokovic just routing Rafa. In straight sets. Rafa has to find his groove. If he can.

  • Dan Markowitz · May 26, 2015 at 11:27 am

    Well, Djoko is having trouble in the second set beating Nieminem, who hits his second serve like a duffer. The question is: Will Nadal ever win another slam and get to 15? I say, No, at this point.

  • Scoop Malinowski · May 26, 2015 at 1:30 pm

    Well, Djokovic flicked the greatness switch and from 25 down in the second, won five straight games then cruised to the W. Jack Sock scored a huge win over Dimitrov 76 62 63. Sock making it clear he is a contender now for big singles titles. This is a brutal loss for Dimitrov who should find a new coach, Rasheed is a fine coach but he has not been able to spark Grigor to the next level. Isner eliminates tricky Seppi in 3 sets. Gasquet cruises. Dolgopolov ousted by Almagro.

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